Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 3:05 AM   Moonset 2:13 PM

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LEZ146 Expires:202405030815;;520031 Fzus51 Kcle 030126 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 926 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-030815- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 926 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
Overnight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 54 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 030807 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 407 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north into the area this morning. Weak low pressure will move east along this front today, followed by a cold front arriving tonight. Another cold front will cross the area on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure is located over northern Minnesota this morning with a weaker area of low pressure over Indiana. A warm front extends from this low towards Central Ohio. Broad low pressure will make slow progress east across the area today with the warm front lifting north into northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania although not expected to make it all the way to the lakeshore.
The area will be in the warm sector today but have toned down high temperatures by a couple degrees given the thickening cloud field and expanding showers. Timing of showers is somewhat difficult today given weak flow and broad moisture advection.
Some showers should develop in NW Ohio as the warm front lifts north into the area this morning. Instability will be limited this morning but expect destabilization to aid in shower and thunderstorm development by mid afternoon, especially in Northeast Ohio initially and then shifting into Northwest Pennsylvania this evening. Weak flow over the area will mean storm motion will be 20 knots or less. Severe weather is not expected given modest instability and little shear. Heavy rain will be the bigger concern if any training occurs due to the relatively slow storm motion and PW values over an inch and a half. Highs today will range from near 70 towards the lakeshore to near 80 in the southeastern counties.

A decrease in showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight as mid-level dry air works in from the west and instability decreases. A cold front moves southeast into the area and tends to stall, with some convergence holding on in the southeastern counties. Can not rule out a shower anywhere so will keep a pop everywhere with the highest southeast of a line from Mansfield to Erie PA. By Saturday, dewpoints will remain elevated in the low 60s. Depending on breaks in the clouds and degree of heating, ML CAPE should be a little higher with values in the 1000-1500 J/kg. Flow develops out of the south again as another low pressure system moves into the Midwest. Expect convection to initiate closer to Central Ohio and lift north through the afternoon. Most of Ohio should recover into the 70s while NW Pennsylvania will hold in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Progressive pattern continues into the short term forecast period and heading into the end of the weekend. Cold front to track through the CWA late Saturday night into Sunday, followed by brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday. Still looking at largely low flows/shear and saturation through the column ahead of and with the cold front, and not much of a severe weather setup but possibly storms highlighted by downpours in a high precipitation efficiency environment. General thunder outlooked from SPC, but will get a relatively short period of stabilization as the aforementioned high pressure builds in for the end of the short term. This late Sunday night/early Monday period is probably going to end up the lowest POPs in both the short and long term forecast. Temperatures cool 4-8 degrees Sunday into Monday in the wake of the cold front.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The cold front that settles just south of the CWA early Monday night will track back northeastward as a warm front late Monday night into early Tuesday, and back into the warm sector. Deep upper level low over the upper midwest region will drive another cold front into the area Tuesday night in southwest flow aloft. Brief high pressure once again Wednesday before another cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Despite the upper low that will make little headway eastward towards the northern half of the Great Lakes by the end of the long term, no real significant changes in airmass in terms of temperature expected.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Thunderstorms will continue to impact TOL through approximately 0630Z and then it seems a break in is likely for several hours. A warm front is located from west central Indiana towards Dayton, OH. This warm front will lift north into the area this morning bringing a continued chance of showers. Timing of thunderstorms will be a challenge through the daytime hours as the area continues to moisten with a slow moving area of low pressure drifting east across Central Ohio. There will be a little more time for heating across north central and northeast Ohio and have included a Tempo for thunderstorms between 17-23Z in Ohio, and as late as 02Z at ERI. The airmass will be moist so heavy rain and IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible with any thunderstorms. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, ceilings will tend to be VFR until after 02Z when a weak cold front settles south into the area. Expect ceilings to trend towards MVFR towards the end of the TAF cycle.

Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the period and somewhat variable. Broad low pressure will result in easterly winds ahead of the low, backing to northeasterly near the lakeshore, and eventually westerly behind the low.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through this Tuesday.

MARINE
East northeast winds dominate through Saturday with 1-3ft waves for the western and central basins of LAke Erie. Beyond that through early next week, expect varying wind directions thanks to several frontal systems coming through the region. Despite some onshore winds at times, wave heights should remain in the 1-2ft range or less for the bulk of the forecast.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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