Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wickliffe, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ridge of high pressure will gradually build to the east through today as a warm front lifts across the region. Expect for some mid to high level clouds to move into the local area by late this morning. The area should remain dry through the bulk of the day today with shower chances increasing across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight as low level moisture increases. Kept PoPs generally in the 30-60% range tonight through Saturday morning. Warm and breezy by Saturday as the region becomes established in the warm sector behind the warm front.

High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the low to mid 60s across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees along the I-75 corridor. Increased cloud cover and the passage of a warm front will allow for overnight lows tonight to settle in the upper 40s to lower 50s, low 40s across Northwest Pennsylvania. Much warmer on Saturday with highs rising into the mid to upper 70s for most, low 80s across Northwest Ohio.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Active weather arrives Saturday night as a deepening low pressure system and upper level trough move through the Great Lakes region.
The surface low will eject out of the Central Plains and deepen as it tracks towards the Great Lakes region. There continues to be some differences in the exact timing and track of the surface low with most deterministic runs continuing to slow down the arrival of the low and its accompanying cold front. Will continue to analyze trends to narrow down exact timing of this system over the next few cycles.
Overall picture remains the same regardless of specific details.

Rain will move across the region from west to east along and ahead of the cold front Saturday evening into Sunday. Warm and windy conditions persist ahead of the cold front as the LLJ moves overhead Saturday night. There remains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the western half of the forecast area Saturday evening ahead of the cold front. The primary severe weather hazard would be damaging wind gusts given the wind field. Confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms remains low with this forecast package as any instability that develops Saturday will likely be waning with the arrival of the cold front.

The front will swing east across the local area on Sunday with southerly winds and gusts increasing along and ahead of the cold front. Expect for wind gusts to peak between 35-45+ MPH late Sunday morning/early Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east across the area on Sunday with the cold front. SPC has placed our entire forecast area in a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Confidence for widespread wetting rains remains high with NBM probabilities of 1.00+ inches of rain ranging between 50-70% across the area.
Persistent drought conditions will lessen any concern for flooding. The cold front will exit to the east Sunday night/early Monday morning with rain showers diminishing from west to east and westerly winds and gusts diminishing by late Sunday night.

By Monday a low to mid level ridge will build across the region which will allow for a brief reprieve from cloudy, breezy, and rainy conditions through Monday night. Another system is quick to arrive from the Upper Great Lakes Monday night. Temperatures vary through the short term given the passage of the cold front.
Overnight lows Saturday night settle in the mid 50s areawide before falling into the low to mid 40s Sunday and Monday night.
Highs on Sunday afternoon rise into the mid 60s to low 70s.
Slightly cooler on Monday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Active weather pattern continues into the long term with another upper level trough diving across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. Shower chances and breezy conditions are expected to return with the mid week system. Highs are generally expected to rise into the 50s each afternoon with lows falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s each night.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR will continue through the current TAF period as high pressure moves off to the east. Winds will be generally out of the south at 6- 12kts this evening into the overnight hours, KERI will be the only exception where they will become variable after sunset. There are ceilings at 070-150 moving in from the northwest that will be over all terminals by this evening. Overnight, there is a low probability of showers across the eastern lakeshore and KERI will have a chance to see showers around 04-09Z Saturday. Given the dry mid to low levels, it will be difficult to see precipitation reach the ground.

A low pressure system will be approaching the region on Saturday and winds will begin to increase out of the south. Winds will start gusting to 15-20kts mid morning and increase throughout the day.
KERI will be susceptible to downsloping through the next couple of days with the southerly wind and will start gusting sooner and may be stronger than other terminals, especially on Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected Saturday into Sunday with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty winds will be expected Sunday ahead of and behind frontal passage. Non-VFR may be possible after frontal passage on Monday across the eastern lakeshore. Non-VFR will be possible again Tuesday through the mid week with showers.

MARINE
High pressure overhead will result in very good marine conditions on Lake Erie today. As the high builds to the east coast we will see southerly winds increase into the 10-20 knot range tonight into Saturday.

We continue to monitor a strong storm system that will approach from the Mid-Mississippi Valley and track through the Central Great Lakes on Sunday. While models have struggled with the track and strength of this system, the 00Z/17 model suite has come into better agreement with a deepening low pressure system tracking across southeast Michigan on Sunday morning. A strong low level jet will be over Lake Erie ahead of this feature and we will see southerly winds ramp up from 20 to near 30 knots by Sunday morning. The potential exists for southerly gale force winds across the central and western basin immediately ahead of this low Sunday morning before a cold front sweeps east and winds shift to southwesterly and westerly. The potential for gale force winds will continue along and behind the frontal passage, especially on the east half of Lake Erie. With that said, we will continue to monitor the track of this system and adjustments may be needed. Winds look to veer to northwesterly on Sunday night as the initial low moves north towards James Bay with a secondary low developing over Pennsylvania. Waves will ramp up substantially with this system into the 9-13 foot range on the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through the day on Monday. Winds back to southwesterly Monday night ahead of the next system that rapidly approaches from the Upper Midwest. This fast moving system will bring another round of strong winds of 20-30 knots for Tuesday and Tuesday night as it races east across the Upper Great Lakes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.