Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 2:55 AM   Moonset 2:09 PM

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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 310 Am Pdt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight - .
Today - S winds 5 to 15 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 8 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves sw 4 ft at 7 seconds. Rain.Sat - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 5 ft at 7 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 5 ft at 9 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 6 ft at 9 seconds - .and nw 3 ft at 14 seconds. Mon - NW winds 10 kt. Waves nw 6 ft at 12 seconds. Tue - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 7 seconds - .and nw 8 ft at 15 seconds.

PZZ400 310 Am Pdt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - Lighter winds and lower seas are forecast for today. Southerly winds will increase ahead of a cold front this evening, followed by a rapid shift to westerly after frontal passage late tonight into early Saturday morning. Gusty and sudden westerly wind gusts to 25 kt are possible on Saturday.

FXUS66 KMFR 031201 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 501 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

Updated AVIATION Section

DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery is showing some marine stratus at the coast and in the Umpqua valley of Douglas County with some higher clouds beginning to move toward the coast. This is part of a more dynamic low pressure system that will be working its way through southern Oregon and northern California today into Saturday night. This low is not particularly strong, but it could bring some relatively significant precipitation to the area.
Precipitation will begin at the coast and spread inland throughout the day. With the low tracking in right overhead, initial amounts may be impacted by terrain influences (specifically downsloping causing less precipitation to reach the ground for inland valleys and upsloping at the coast and coast range to increase the precipitation). However, as the low moves across the area, the terrain influences will likely be overwhelmed, and this shot of precipitation could be relatively heavy for this time of year (especially early Saturday morning). A few thunderstorms may be embedded in the precipitation on Saturday, especially with a strong cold pool aloft as evidenced by quickly lowering snow levels.

In fact, snow levels will be coming down quickly from 8000 feet today to around 3000 to 3500 feet tonight. The snow levels could fall in alignment with the heavy precipitation which could facilitate a quicker changeover from rain to snow. This could lead to a period of inch per hour snowfall rates of wet snow in the Cascades and in Western Siskiyou County. Specifically, the HRRR is indicating a 60 to 80 percent chance of these inch an hour snowfall rates from 4 AM to 8AM, which could lead to decent accumulations. The NBM shows a 40% chance of seeing 6 inches of snow in the Cascades Saturday night. Have issued winter weather advisories for the Cascades north of Highway 140 and Western Siskiyou County above 4000 feet (mainly for Sawyers Bar Road near Mt. Etna). Other areas may see some snow, but accumulations are not expected to be as high.

In addition to the precipitation, winds will be a factor as well with this low. There will be a point where winds will largely be from the south along the front ahead of the low pressure system.
Statistical guidance is suggesting 40 mph winds at Weed in the Shasta Valley on Saturday night, which is reasonable due to the decoupling of the atmosphere likely ahead of the increase in winds (which is leading to the higher precipitation rates). However, after daybreak on Saturday, the winds will pick up from the south, and could reach 50 mph. This will largely be confined to areas of Lake County, Oregon and eastward. Have issued a wind advisory for the higher elevations of Lake County including the Winter Rim and Highway 31.

Showers associated with this low will linger through Saturday, although the heaviest precipitation and the gustiest winds will largely have concluded by Saturday night. Temperatures, however, will be relatively chilly and any wet roads along and east of the Cascades and in northern California may refreeze.

The flow pattern becomes more zonal for Monday and another impulse will pass through the area bringing additional showers and possibly some more thunderstorms to the area. Precipitation amounts should be relatively light even if snow levels continue to hover between 3000 and 3500 feet which is unusual for May.

The pattern then shifts Wednesday to a ridge of high pressure which will allow southern Oregon and northern California to warm up and dry out. This pattern will likely last into the weekend.

-Schaaf

AVIATION
03/12Z TAFs...Areas of LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings are present in the Coquille Valley up to North Bend and over into the Umpqua Valley near Roseburg. The lower conditions will lift to VFR this morning, but drop back to MVFR with local IFR cigs/vsbys as a potent cold front moves in with periods of moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation this afternoon. VFR will prevail elsewhere inland through late this afternoon/early this evening.

The front will spread moderate precipitation across the rest of the west side tonight, reaching east of the Cascades Saturday morning.
Expect widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR in rain with higher terrain obscured in rain/snow. A rapid drop in freezing levels will occur overnight (~09-15Z) from west to east and especially around 12Z Saturday morning near the Cascades. Rain will change to snow down to as low as 2500 feet with brief heavy snow in the mountains, reducing visibility to LIFR at times. Breezy south winds are expected with the front too, with peak gusts in the 40-50 mph range.
Despite the increasing winds, low level wind shear is not a concern at this time.

Conditions should improve a bit behind the front with precipitation becoming more showery, but still with a good amount of MVFR ceilings/visibility. -Spilde

MARINE
Updated 200 AM Friday, May 3, 2024...A cold front will move through today into this evening with moderate to heavy rain, gusty south winds and steep seas. Following the front, seas will remain steep, dominated by fresh short period west swell Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers continue with a slight chance of thunderstorms (20%) on Saturday. West seas trend less steep Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Another front arrives on Monday with the potential for gusty south to southwest winds followed by building west-northwest seas Monday night into Tuesday. After that, we expect high pressure to build in mid-late next week with a thermal trough strengthening along the coast. This will bring a return of stronger north winds and steep seas, highest south of Cape Blanco. -Spilde



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for ORZ027-028.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ030-031.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Saturday above 4000 feet for CAZ080.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Crescent City
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Fri -- 02:16 AM PDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:59 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM PDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:31 PM PDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:12 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:11 PM PDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Crescent City
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Fri -- 02:16 AM PDT     2.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:59 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM PDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:31 PM PDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:12 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:10 PM PDT     6.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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