Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cleveland, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
An upper level ridge continues to build across the central CONUS early this week as a surface high pressure builds into the lower Ohio Valley. There is a weak shortwave moving northwest to southeast through the Great Lakes region that is along the upper level trough off to the east. This has brought an area of snow showers across the region that will push to the east early this evening. Behind this shortwave, mean low level flow will shift to be more westerly this evening into early Tuesday and a lake effect snow band will glance the shore of mainly Erie, Pennsylvania, though could reach down into far northeastern Ohio briefly. Not expecting much accumulation with the band with around an inch or less of additional accumulation.

Low level flow will shift back to be southwesterly by Tuesday morning and the snow band will move back over Lake Erie. Dry weather is expected through the day on Tuesday as the surface high pressure moves to the southeast. Another feature to watch is a weak shortwave moving across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
There will be some low level moisture associated with this, though most models are in disagreement on how much, that could bring some precipitation to the region. With temperatures in the low levels being around 0, it's possible there could be some isolated locations that see some freezing drizzle. This will mainly be in the southern half of the CWA and before the morning commute on Wednesday. If temperatures do warm up to above freezing, precipitation may fall mainly as rain, though roads or walkways may become slick if untreated since they will still be below freezing. Again, there is low confidence in the potential of freezing drizzle, but will need to keep an eye on conditions if they do deteriorate late Tuesday night.

Temperatures will begin to warm across the region with the southerly WAA on the western side of the high. Highs on Tuesday will reach into the low to mid 30s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will continue to move off to the southeast through the day on Wednesday and temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to low 40s with the southerly winds. A weak cold front will move just north of the region during the day Wednesday, though precipitation chances will be low as there is little moisture support and any moisture there is, will be to the north-northeast. If there is any precipitation, expect it to be scattered across northwestern Pennsylvania and elsewhere will stay dry for the day.

Behind this feature, winds will begin to increase with stronger WAA out of the south to southwest. Winds will be sustained 15-25 mph across the region with gusts near 35-40 mph. Latest NBM probabilities have trended down for winds above Wind Advisory criteria (31 mph sustained and 46 mph gusts). If there were any gusts near and above advisory criteria, it would be infrequent and localized with the greatest chance in the western portion of the CWA and along the lake shore Thursday afternoon into the evening. With the increased winds, a strong low pressure system will be moving across the northern Great Lakes during the day on Thursday sweeping a cold front across the region with high PoP chances. Precipitation chances will taper off late Thursday night with QPF totals around 0.40-0.50" across the region. There is some low end probabilities of QPF totals above 0.75" and even an inch, but those would be localized and are generally south of US 30 and near the eastern Ohio lake shore.

Temperatures in the near term will be on the rise for Wednesday and the first part of Thursday with the WAA with highs expected to be in the mid 40s. Behind the cold front temperatures will drop off quickly with strong CAA with overnight lows Thursday night being in the low 20s to upper teens.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Behind the low pressure system there will be strong CAA over the region and across Lake Erie. 850mb temperatures will be down near - 15C that will provide enough lake induced instability for lake effect snow showers across the primary snowbelt through Friday. It's difficult to say the extent of snow accumulation given we're 5 days out, but with how short lived the lake effect will be, totals should stay on the lower end. Temperatures on Friday will be much colder than the previous couple of days and will on be in the mid to upper 20s with overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

High pressure and an upper level ridge will build in behind the departing low pressure system and the region will dry out to start the weekend. With the high moving in, temperatures will rebound Saturday with highs up into the low 40s. Models show another low pressure system moving across the region Sunday, but at this time is not looking to be as strong as the previous low. Surface high pressure and ridging should build into the region to start next week.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Mainly VFR is ongoing and will continue through the TAF period for the most part
A couple of things to monitor
a mid-level deck will impact ERI and may impact TOL, CLE, and YNG for a time overnight tonight into early Tuesday. Have MVFR included at ERI, with a 5,000 foot ceiling and scattered MVFR clouds at the other three for the time being. Otherwise, a weak lake effect snow band may clip ERI overnight, mainly between 5-9z, before weakening and lifting back offshore into Tuesday.

South-southwest winds will continue through Tuesday. Current 6-12kt winds (stronger and gustier at ERI) will lull a bit to 4-10kt overnight tonight. Winds will pick back up to 9-17kt on Tuesday, peaking in the afternoon when some 25kt gusts are possible at TOL, FDY, and ERI.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through Wednesday. Strong low pressure will track through the northern Great Lakes Thursday and Thursday night, pushing a strong cold front across the area.
Widespread non-VFR is expected late Thursday into Thursday night in rain along and ahead of the cold front. Non-VFR likely lingers at times into Friday in snow showers, primarily across Northeast OH and Northwest PA due to lake effect. Gusty winds are also likely Thursday afternoon through Friday.

MARINE
As high pressure continues to nudge east towards the Southeast, elevated southwest winds of 15-25 knots continue to impact Lake Erie with waves of 3-5 feet. These conditions are expected to persist across the western basin through late this evening and across the remainder of the lake through early Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the entire nearshore of Lake Erie at this time.

Late tonight, the aforementioned high drift further from the area, weakening the overall gradient through late Tuesday morning before an approaching trough returns gusty winds Tuesday afternoon. Winds Tuesday afternoon will once again ramp up to 20 to 30 knots from the southwest. Given the lull in wind speeds Tuesday morning, opted to maintain the timing of the Small Craft with this update, although later shifts may opt to simply expand the current Small Craft Advisory into Wednesday. Confidence was higher in a notable gap between hazardous marine conditions at this point so opted to not extend. There will be another brief lull between systems on Wednesday night before a robust low pressure system again impacts Lake Erie on Thursday through Friday. This late week system is expected to produce west to southwest gales across the entire lake with waves building to 12 feet or higher in the open waters and 6-8 feet across the nearshore. On Friday, a lingering surface trough will shift winds to west-northwesterly but remain elevated at 15-25 knots with waves of 4 to 6 feet. With all that being said, there will likely need to be a Gale Warning issued for much if not all of Lake Erie with a Small Craft at the tale end when conditions gradually improve. Confidence also continues to build that a Low Water Advisory will be needed for the western basin as water levels are forecast to fall below the critical mark for safe navigation.

Another system is possible this weekend which will once again bring hazardous conditions across Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LEZ142- 143.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>149.