Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elyria, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Northwest flow of cold air aloft continues, with shallow moisture in the 850-925 mb layer sufficient enough for a slight increase in lake effect snow across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania early this morning. Radar reflectivity, along with nearby observations, indicate light snow rates likely less than a half inch per hour; even so, local cameras show light snow is sticking to roadways, especially in the Cleveland Metro and in Northwest Pennsylvania where traffic maps indicate slower traffic speeds across area highways. In the immediate near term, could see parts of eastern Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula getting an additional inch or two, though model guidance is not sufficiently capturing this current activity very well.

As steering flow tends to back, should see these lake effect snow showers gradually shift eastward towards Ashtabula and Northwest Pennsylvania, before getting disrupted. May see an additional inch or two by 12Z in some parts of Northwest Pennsylvania, though local radars are overshooting the activity there, so it will be difficult to tell. Regardless, the 12Z end time for the Lake Effect Snow Warnings for Erie and Crawford Counties will be maintained.

Within the northwest flow aloft, a weak shortwave trough will swing through, bringing a glancing bit of light snow to Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon, with an additional dusting of snow. Added low-level moisture and southwest flow in the low-levels will allow for a single snow band to develop over Lake Erie Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. This should primarily affect western New York, though there are a few models that bring it far enough south to briefly impact the immediate lakeshores of mainly Erie, PA. If it does, it would bring a dusting to an inch (at most) of snow.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Warm air advection with southerly flow on the backside of a departing high will allow for a gradual warming trend through much of the week. This will be aided by a strong low pressure system that will move into the northern Great Lakes by Thursday.
Temperatures are likely to rise to above normal temperatures and into the upper 40s areawide Thursday afternoon; both conditions will occur for the first time since November 26, which is a true testament to how cold it's been the past several weeks. Couple related fun climate facts: *Assuming today is below average temperatures again, that will be 19 consecutive days of below normal temperatures.
*All six of our climate sites are currently above normal snowfall!

However, warmth this time of year usually comes with consequences, and that will certainly be the case with this upcoming system as it's set to impact the region Thursday and Thursday night. First, strong gusty winds are expected, both with southwest flow in the warm sector on Thursday, and with west flow following the passage of a strong cold front Thursday night. Confidence is fairly high in at least 35-40 mph gusts, with the latest NBM suggesting a 20-40% chance of gusts greater than 46 mph (criteria for a Wind Advisory), which is most probable across much of the area with southwest flow on Thursday, and with west flow mainly along the lakeshore near and east of Cleveland Thursday night.

Additionally, a swath of rain is expected across the entire area Thursday into early Thursday night, with the current PoP forecast peaking around 90% areawide. QPF is currently around 0.5", with localized amounts up to 1" possible. Gusty winds and dew points around 40 degrees will lead to a decent amount of snowmelt as well. It's unlikely this will be enough for river flooding, but it will definitely be enough for some seriously muddy yards.

As alluded to earlier, a strong cold front will bring a drastic drop in temperature, with afternoon/evening highs in the upper 40s cooling down to the low 20s by the Friday morning pre-dawn hours. Precipitation is likely to changeover to snow, though QPF will be lacking at this point and a dusting of snow is expected at best.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Behind the departing low, a cold shot of air swings through on Friday, with 850mb temperatures dropping down to as low as -14 C. Accumulating lake effect snow is becoming more likely across the primary snowbelt through the day Friday. At this point, it seems more like an advisory event rather than a warning event given the expected shorter duration (12-18 hours). Snow is likely to sharply end Friday evening/night as high pressure builds in.

On the backside of the departing high, temperatures will warm into the 40s on Saturday before another cold front crosses the area with rain expected Saturday and Saturday night (though probably less than Thursday's system) before high pressure begins building in on Sunday/Monday.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
Currently, a band of moderate snow showers is pushing east of I77 and will likely reduce visibilities at KCAK, KYNG and KERI to IFR based on upstream observations. Conditions will improve to VFR behind this line of snow showers, remaining cloudy with ceilings climbing to 5kft or higher. This should also be the last push of snow with the exception of KERI which will continue to see on and off lake effect snow showers through this afternoon and again late tonight/early Tuesday as band parallel to the lakeshore nudges south. When now snowing at KERI, ceiling heights will likely remain MVFR until Tuesday morning when they finally lift a bit more and conditions at KERI improve to VFR.

Southwest winds of 10-13 knots, gusting up to 20 knots this afternoon will weaken and become 5-10 knots around 00Z Tuesday.
There will likely be a period of light (<5 kts) overnight before winds gain a bit more southerly component and begin to increase to 10-12 knots again. There will likely be wind gusts near 20 knots later in the day on Tuesday, but not within this TAF period.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through Wednesday. Non-VFR conditions possible with widespread rain and/or snow expected Thursday and Thursday night. Behind the widespread precip, lake- effect snow with non-VFR conditions will be possible across the snowbelt in NE OH/NW PA on Friday.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 11 PM EST this evening from Maumee Bay to The Islands and until 4 AM Tuesday from The Islands to Ripley. A ridge builds from the west this morning and then exits slowly E'ward from the Lake Erie region through Tuesday.
SW'erly to W'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots early this morning freshen to around 20 to 30 knots during this mid-morning through afternoon as the ridge interacts with a low expected to move E'ward across the northern Great Lakes and vicinity. During this evening, the SW'erly to W'erly winds will begin to ease gradually and are expected to be around 10 to 15 knots by daybreak Tuesday. Waves as large as 5 to 10 feet are expected through this early evening, especially east of The Islands, before subsiding to 3 feet or less by daybreak Tuesday, when any occasional 4 footers will be confined to the open waters of the eastern basin. On Tuesday, S'erly to SW'erly winds freshen to around 20 to 30 knots as the aforementioned ridge interacts with a deepening low that should move generally E'ward from southern mb and vicinity toward the northwestern Great Lakes. Waves build to as large as 4 to 9 feet, especially east of The Islands, and another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

As the ridge continues to exit E'ward Tuesday night, a warm front will sweep NE'ward across Lake Erie and be accompanied by SW'erly winds around 20 to 32 knots. The potential for gale-force winds still appears minimal. Waves as large as 5 to 11 feet are expected, especially east of The Islands. On Wednesday, SW'erly to W'erly winds around 20 to 30 knots in the morning should begin to ease in the afternoon and ease to around 5 to 15 knots by early evening as a very weak cold front sweeps E'ward across the lake and a narrow ridge then builds from the Upper Midwest. Waves as large as 5 to 10 feet in the morning should subside to 5 feet or less by early evening.

During Wednesday night, S'erly to SW'erly winds are expected to freshen to around 20 to 30 knots as the ridge exits E'ward, a warm front sweeps N'ward across Lake Erie, and a deepening low wobbles E'ward in vicinity of the Canada/north-central United States border. Waves are expected to rebuild to as large as 4 to 9 feet, with the largest waves expected east of The Islands based on our wind and fetch forecast. Another Small Craft Advisory is probable. S'erly to SW'erly winds around 25 to 40 knots are expected on Thursday as the potent low wobbles E'ward across the northern Great Lakes. A Gale Warning will probably be needed. Waves as large as 6 to 12 feet are forecast. SW'erly winds around 25 to 40 knots veer to W'erly Thursday night as the potent low wobbles NE'ward toward west-central Quebec and allows a strong cold front to sweep E'ward across Lake Erie.
Waves as large as 7 to 14 feet are forecast. Behind the front, a trough should linger over Lake Erie on Friday as a ridge attempts to build from the Upper Midwest. WSW'erly to WNW'erly winds should ease gradually to around 10 to 15 knots and waves should subside gradually to 5 feet or less by sunset Friday evening. Note: a seiche is likely on Thursday into Friday and will probably prompt a Low Water Advisory for the western basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LEZ142- 143.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>149.