Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 3:25 AM   Moonset 2:32 PM

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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 345 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 4 seconds. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 5 seconds. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 4 seconds. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 4 seconds, becoming se 1 ft at 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon. Sun night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 1 ft at 3 seconds. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tue - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 345 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the north today and begins to weaken over the region on Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front tracks through early Monday, stalling south of the region Tuesday.

FXUS61 KBOX 030653 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 253 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure supplies dry weather with cooler onshore breezes today and Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday night with showers likely and cooler temperatures Sunday into Sunday night.
High pressure then brings dry and warm weather Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Unsettled weather is possible later Wednesday into Thursday, with the risk of showers but likely remaining mild.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Today

A broad anticyclone centered to the north/northeast of southern New England takes control today. A steady northeast flow will advect a cooler air mass over southern New England this afternoon with 925 hPa temps dropping to 5C or lower. With diurnal mixing this will translate to surface temps in the low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 50s along the coast. Downsloping from easterly flow over The Worcester Hills will support warmer temperatures in the upper 60s in the CT River Valley. After a cloudy start, a mid-level ridge axis building in from the west will be accompanied by a much drier air mass that will allow some clearing my late morning/early afternoon. Still expect FEW to SCT diurnal clouds this afternoon, but there should be a good amount of sunshine as well. Overall a seasonable day in southern New England.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/

Tonight and Tomorrow

High pressure supports dry/quiet weather across southern New England tonight. Winds become light and variable which should allow for fairly efficient radiational cooling across the region, though there is a question as to how much cloud cover there will be and thus cooling potential. Decided to blend the NBM25th percentile with CONSMOS to yield low temps in the low to mid 40s which is near to slightly below normal for early May in southern New England.

High pressure remains in control on Saturday, so we continue to expect dry/quiet weather. However, continued onshore flow will support cloudiness across the region. Very little change in the air mass for Saturday, so expect high temperatures similar to what should be observed Friday afternoon with cooler temps along the coast in the mid 50s and warmer temps across the interior and CT River Valley ranging from the low to upper 60s.



LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Highlights:

* Cool but dry Saturday night into Sunday, then numerous showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

* Dry & warm Monday afternoon into Tuesday

* Warm front around Tue night or Wed brings next chance for clouds and showers.

Synoptic Overview...

Tranquil stretch of weather in response to east coast ridging/above normal heights much of this forecast period. A brief interruption to the pattern, as northern stream trough briefly erodes this ridge with a risk of showers later Sunday into Monday morning. Then dry post frontal NW flow returns later Monday and into Tue. Progressive pattern follows with ridge building back into the northeast, but may be accompanied by warm frontal showers later Wed/Thu.

Temperatures...

Cool maritime ridge Sat night into Sunday, with lows in the 40s and highs 55-60. 850 mb ensemble temp anomalies peak 18z Monday over southeast MA, in the transition to post frontal. Thus, looking at a warm day (provided clouds & showers exit before the PM hours) with WNW flow combined with warm temps aloft coupled with downsloping winds. Hence, coastline warms up too, including Cape Cod and Islands. Also, dew pts in the 50s will provide mild/warm feel to the airmass. Not much of a drop off in temps in the post frontal airmass, thus, another warm day Tuesday with NW flow, warm temps aloft combined with downsloping NW winds. Likely not as warm Wed/Thu but probably above normal(60s).

Precipitation...

High amplitude, deep layer ridge with 1030 mb high from the maritimes into eastern MA, provides dry weather Sat night into Sunday morning. Then approaching trough provides cyclonic flow and increasing/above normal PWATs yield numerous showers Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Ensembles offering likely probs (60- 70% for 0.25 inches of rainfall, with chance probs (30-40%) for up to 0.50 inches of rainfall. Timing for widespread showers, highest PWATs from 06z-12z Monday per ensembles. Post frontal with dry slot during Monday afternoon. Drier than normal PWATs linger into Tue, then becoming unsettled Wed/Thu with moisture plume advecting across the region (PWATs up to 200% of normal). Too far out in time for details, but looking at height anomalies from the ensembles, anomalous lows over Newfoundland and the Dakotas, may result in a slower ridge advecting across SNE mid of next week. Thus, high amplitude pattern may support dry weather lingering thru much of Wed, especially eastern MA/RI.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Through 12Z...High Confidence

MVFR/IFR cigs persist through 12Z with breezy north/northeasterly winds. Some gusts to 20 knots possible at The Cape/Islands terminals.

Today...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing for improvements.

MVFR/IFR cigs eventually lift/scatter out to VFR by late morning early afternoon (16-18Z). Steady northeast winds for the first half of the day will become more easterly after 18Z.

Tonight...High confidence

VFR. Light and variable winds.

Tomorrow...High confidence

VFR. East winds from 5 to 10 knots.

KBOS TAF...High confidence

KBDL TAF...High confidence

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Marine

Today through Tomorrow

High pressure supports fairly calm conditions across the coastal waters through Saturday. Winds will prevail out of the northeast from 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to 20 knots possible. Seas generally 1 to 3 feet.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Stonington
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Fri -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:51 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
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Fri -- 01:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:39 AM EDT     2.50 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:02 AM EDT     -2.98 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:10 PM EDT     2.82 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:35 PM EDT     -3.18 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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