Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 1:48 PM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 548 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tonight - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 548 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the north today and begins to weaken over the region on Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front tracks through early Monday, stalling south of the region Tuesday.

FXUS61 KPHI 031044 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 644 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds into New England with onshore flow setting up.
A series of cold fronts approaches for the weekend, with the second (and stronger of the two) front stalling out nearby by early next week. The stalled front lifts north as a warm front at some point in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, bringing a return to above normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The marine stratus never quite made it to the coast and moved onshore. Satellite images indicate a disturbance, perhaps an area of NVA as indicated by the NAM, washing out the marine layer as it approaches the coast. Some patchy fog has developed, but that should dissipate over the next hour or so.

The cold front has sagged south of Delmarva, and the cooler and drier airmass will also continue to sag south. Onshore flow should keep dew points up in the low to mid 50s along the coast and in the coastal plain.

High pressure builds into New England. Onshore flow will result in a much cooler airmass spreading into the region. Highs will still be a few degrees above normal, but much colder compared to Thursday, topping off in the mid to upper 60s for most of the region, and in the upper 60s to low 70s for far western portions of the forecast area. For coastal areas, onshore flow will keep temperatures in the 50s.

Low pressure approaches from the west tonight. Most of the region will remain dry as high pressure hangs tough along the coast, but some showers may move into far western portions of the forecast area prior to daybreak Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Not the best weekend ahead weather-wise but not necessarily terrible either. A weakening cold front will approach on Saturday, with some showers moving through ahead of it. Best chance to see showers will be west of the I-95 corridor, but can't rule out some light rain across the area. Otherwise, it will be cloudy and cool with a steady onshore flow. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s/low 60s. With the maritime airmass in place, not expecting much in terms of thunderstorms as it should remain rather stable.

Showers become more widespread by Saturday Night through Sunday Night as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. Highest PoPs are concentrated in the Sunday morning timeframe. Some elevated instability could move in for Sunday afternoon/evening but not expecting any severe weather, and just some rumbles of thunder mixed in with passing showers. The maritime airmass will continue to have a grip on the region, though flow turns a bit more southerly in southern Delmarva. The result will be another day in the upper 50s/low 60s for most, with upper 60s/70s in southern Delaware and along the southern Eastern Shore.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Unsettled conditions are expected for most of next week as a boundary stalls out over the region. Rain chances are in the forecast each day during the week as several waves of low pressure are expected to ride along the boundary. Each day won't be a washout by any means, and PoPs are generally around 20-40% Monday/Tuesday, with the highest coming in the afternoon. Not much instability will be present, with the threat of any thunderstorms/severe weather being low. Temperatures both days will be in the mid to upper 70s, with some 80s possible on Tuesday.

The boundary looks to lift north by Tuesday in the form of a warm front, putting the region in the warm sector. Looking at a period of above normal temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday with upper 70s/low to mid 80s anticipated. A few shortwaves will move through, which will spark off some showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/evening both days. More instability will be present, so we will have to watch this window, though too early to tell if/how impactful any convection will be.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Fog and stratus never quite developed, so will carry VFR conditions for all terminals except for KACY, where MVFR/IFR CIGs are still expected to develop today. E winds 8 to 12 kt, but 10 to 15 kt with 18 to 23 kt gusts at KACY. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR for most of the night for most of the terminals, lowering to MVFR at KACY/KMIV late. E winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR restrictions possible later in the day especially at KRDG/KABE.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Restrictions expected with steady rain moving through, with CIGs as low as IFR possible.

Sunday...Restrictions expected with showers/low clouds moving through. CIGs as low as IFR possible.

Sunday Night...Restrictions possible with 40-60% chance of showers and 15-25% chance of thunderstorms.

Monday through Tuesday...Primarily VFR though some restrictions possible with any showers. 20-40% chance of showers through this period.

MARINE
A tightening easterly pressure gradient will develop on the waters today, and E winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt for most NJ and DE ocean waters. Seas will build to around 5 ft.
Will go ahead and hoist a Small Craft Advisory for all ANZ451-455 from 8am to 4pm. Sub-SCA conditions for DE Bay today and tonight.
Sub-SCA conditions for the ocean tonight.

Patchy fog expected on the ocean waters today and tonight with 1 to 3 NM VSBYs.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated.
Showers/thunderstorms possible on the waters Sunday through Sunday night.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ451>455.

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New Brunswick
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Fri -- 03:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:28 AM EDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
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Fri -- 02:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:11 PM EDT     5.99 feet High Tide
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Sayreville
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Fri -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:44 PM EDT     Moonset
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