Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 3:21 AM   Moonset 2:31 PM

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LMZ046 Expires:202405030815;;519896 Fzus53 Kiwx 030120 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 920 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-030815- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 920 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
Overnight - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms, then numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms late. Some Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Saturday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 52 degrees and at michigan city is 50 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 030427 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1227 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures Friday, followed by above normal temperatures through the middle of next week with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- There are chances for showers and thunderstorms this week. A few strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into tonight, mainly across northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Instability continues to increase on the south side of a warm front which is advancing northward through the afternoon. We have already seen a couple of showers/storms over NW Indiana, but these have weakened considerably as they've raced north- northeastward into the cool sector with more stable conditions.
Diurnal heating in the warm sector and moisture advection will lead to MLCAPE ~ 1200 J/kg (MUCAPE closer to 2000). However, 0-6km shear of only 20-25kt and relatively unimpressive mid- level lapse rates will keep the situation pretty tame. If any updrafts become better organized, the best chance for an isolated hail or strong wind threat (although DCAPE values suggest sub-severe winds) would be over far Southwest Michigan and Northwest Indiana.

Overnight, as the shortwave pivots off northeast into Canada, upper level divergence/diffluence over our area (coupled with PWATs increasing to ~1.3in) will aid in more widespread shower and embeded thunderstorm development out ahead of the cold front. This will march eastward through the morning, with precip finally dying off west to east during the afternoon hours. With the frontal passage and rain/cloud cover, highs will only top out in the low 70s.

In the long-term, confidence is high that we are going to remain in an active pattern characterized by above normal temperatures and daily shower/thunderstorm chances. However, no significant weather impacts are anticipated at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1226 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Mainly VFR early this morning outside of any convection that will increase in coverage at KSBN, while remaining isolated in the vicinity of KFWA through daybreak. Cigs lower into MVFR to low VFR with the main slug of moisture and associated shortwave lifting slowly northeast through the area through the remainder of the morning and early afternoon.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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