Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Arthur Estates, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold temperatures stick around through tomorrow morning -----------------------------------------------------------

The chance for snow has diminished, and we expect clear, calm, and very cold conditions overnight as high pressure builds.
With light winds and snow coverage limiting energy absorbed during the day, temperatures will drop rapidly, with lows ranging from the low teens to single digits by early Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday - Warming temperatures ----------------------------------------------------------------

Upper ridging will build over the area on Tuesday, with rising heights helping high temperatures climb to near or slightly above freezing. High confidence in dry weather on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, low pressure will cross from northern Ontario into Quebec, bringing a weak cold front through the region. Chances for an precipitation have decreased to near zero, but this will help increase cloud cover. Despite frontal passage, temperatures will moderate to near-average by Wednesday afternoon as highs push into the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread rain chances return Thursday.
- Quick cold-shot on Friday.
- Rain possible this weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The pattern shaping up for the long term forecast keeps a progressive pattern in place across the area for Thursday with a stout but weakened ridge over the west and a broad trough over the east. This will usher in another major shortwave tracking the area by Thursday. a southerly surge of warmer air ahead of this system with rain expected at the onset. There certainly is a case where a few instances of pockets of cold air could allow for an instance or 2 with freezing rain. Confidence in this potential is low but will need monitored as the time approaches.

Lingering lake effect snow chances on Friday will be dependent on trough strength. At this time, a weaker trough is more likely, leading to warmer temperatures and lower lake effect chances. Any snow accumulation on Friday would mostly be limited to areas north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges.

Heading into the weekend, the pattern remains active with numerous disturbances tracking along the northern border. This will bring slightly warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend and into the start of next week. The pattern suggests little changes with no major intrusions of cold air or warmer air. Thus temperatures will be roughly 5 to 7 degrees above normal. This lines up with the CPC outlooks showing warmer than normal conditions through the end of the long term. This should persist into Christmas as well. Unsettled weather is expected this weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- VFR expected through the TAF period ------------------------------------------------------------

Much of the snow has wound down and moved north of our ports at this time. VFR prevails to open the TAF period and is expected to last throughout the current TAF period. The likely only hiccup to this could be some low-level stratocu coming in off the lakes for FKL/DUJ during the overnight hours. This risk wanes as we approach 12z.

After this, light winds and VFR skies continue through the remainder of Tuesday. Clouds are expected to lower early Wednesday ahead of a weak SFC trough. A lack of deep moisture likely precludes precipitation issues. MVFR probabilities increase to around 30-40% from 00-12z Wednesday.

Outlook... General VFR should last through Wednesday as high pressure briefly builds in. Restrictions look to return later Thursday with an approaching low. Mild temperatures lean towards rain with this system.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.