Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Centerport, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Key Point(s):

* Unseasonably cold tonight with a passing flurry possible.

Shortwave energy dropping down the backside of a departing upper trough will result in mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a flurry through this evening. Otherwise, high pressure noses in from the southwest with clearing skies for the second half of the night.
NBM temps were used (close to MAV/MET MOS). There is some uncertainty tonight with the cloud cover and still a bit of a west wind. It's quite possible that some of the normally colder locations could get lower than currently forecast. Right now, expect lows generally in the teens, except lower 20s in the NYC metro. This is about 10 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Key Point(s):

* Tuesday will be the last day of much below normal temperatures, followed by a midweek warmup.

* Dry cold frontal passage Wednesday night.

A progressive, nearly zonal flow across the Lower 48 will continue to send Pac systems quickly east. High pressure over the area on Tuesday gradually works offshore, while low pressure passes north of the Great Lakes. Strong warm advection out ahead of the system and a warm front passing well north of the area Tuesday night will mark the last day of cold air across the region. Highs are forecast to be a bit warmer than they were on Monday, generally in the lower to mid 30s. With winds turning around to the southwest late in the day, lows will not be near as cold. In fact, temperatures will initially drop into the 20s in the evening before leveling off, then gradually rising the second half of the night as southwest winds increase.

Cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday with continued warm advection. Highs are forecast to get into the lower and mid 40s, which is close to normal (shade below). Gusts ahead of the front in the afternoon will top off around 20 mph. Model soundings show it becoming inverted, limiting the gust potential. Cold front passes through dry Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Points:

* Mild into Friday.

* Wet on Friday with a frontal system.

* Cooler over the weekend into the beginning of next week.

Zonal flow aloft keep temps mild Thu. An upper trof then brings swly flow aloft Thu ngt into Fri with developing rain. The cold front associated with the system comes thru late Fri, with colder air for Fri ngt and Sat. Could be some icy spots Fri ngt and Sat mrng with refreezing moisture. Position of the polar front Sun and Mon close to the area, but the bulk of the arctic air may remain N of the cwa.
Still too far out to have confidence, but general pattern is zonal which would tend towards glancing shots of colder air.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure builds in through early Tuesday and pushes offshore Tuesday afternoon.

VFR. A few flurries will be possible from approx 01-04z, but confidence is low.

Gusts have subsided, though an occasional gust to 20 kt is still possible through 00-02Z

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD are expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: VFR. SW winds around 10 to 15 kt with gusts 15 to 20 kt Wednesday and chance of LLWS.

Thursday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt late day.

Thursday night: Rain with IFR cond, especially after midnight. S winds G20-25kt in the evening, increasing to 25-35kt after midnight.
LLWS after midnight.

Friday: Chance of rain and either MVFR/IFR cond in the morning, then VFR. SW winds G25-35kt in the morning, shifting W in the afternoon and increasing to 30-40kt. LLWS early.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions linger on the eastern ocean waters through early this evening. High pressure then follows with sub-SCA conditions through much of Tuesday night. A strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front will then bring SCA conditions back to the waters possibly before daybreak on the ocean waters. Winds and seas diminish Wednesday night following the cold frontal passage.
High pressure briefly builds in for Thursday with sub-SCA conditions.

S winds increase late Thu into Fri ahead of a frontal sys.
Gales possible, especially on the ocean. Winds become NW behind the cold front late Fri, with gales again possible. Residual SCA seas possible on the ocean Sat.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.