Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM   Moonset 1:53 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 816 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon - .
Today - E winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - W winds 5 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ500 816 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will move south of the waters today with northeast winds strengthening through early next week. Cloudy and showery conditions are expected through the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday night into Monday.

FXUS61 KCTP 031119 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 719 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Not as warm but pleasant end to the week with increasing clouds -Noticeable cool down over the weekend with periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Sunshine to start today will be followed by increasing clouds into tonight. High pressure channeling down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians will maintain dry wx over the majority of the CWA (eastern 2/3) through 00Z Sat with max POPs to the west of the US219 corridor. This area should be in the warm sector where the most unstable air will reside. A couple of locally heavy t-storm downpours could produce spot amounts >1" on the west aspect of the Allegheny Plateau near the edge of higher pwat air surging in from the upper OH Valley. The WPC D1 ERO covers this area, with the greatest threat just outside of our CWA (over PBZ) based on the latest 03/06Z HRRR. The 24hr maxTchange will be considerably cooler over the central and southeastern ridge/valley region this afternoon with fcst highs giving back 7-15 degrees from yesterdays record challenging to record breaking temps.

Shower activity should eventually expand west to east through tonight as an increasingly moist east/southeast flow brings widespread low clouds and perhaps some fog/mist on the ridgetops. Still downplaying non-severe t-storm potential given increasing low level stability/CAD pattern setup and lack of MUCAPE. Low temps will be above early May climo and range between 45-55F from the southwestern Poconos/Coal Region to Warren County.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Hires models show CAD pattern firmly entrenched over CPA on Saturday, and therefore we continued to trim max temps vs. NBM.
No risk of thunder on Saturday so removed from wx grids and changed character of precip to rain from showers.

Rain/showers continue through Sunday night with highs recovering 5-10F over the southwest 1/2 of the CWA Some isolated convection is possible in this area Sunday PM as the warm sector shifts to the east. Despite the relatively high moisture availability, limited rain rates should keep blended mean QPF btwn 0.50-1.00 inches ending 00Z Monday. Fcst lows Sunday night will be +10-15F above climo for early May in the 50-60F range.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The extended period will trend milder and remain unsettled with several chances for rain. A cold front will stall near or south of the MD line Monday and Tuesday before lifting to the northeast (as a warm front) into midweek. The favors the best chance for rain the SW zones on Monday before POPs increase to 50-70% Tuesday into Wednesday. After a weekend cooldown, temps will trend warmer/back above climo into the 70s to low 80s.

With several chances for rain next week along with persistent mild temperatures, green up should rapidly expand into northern PA thus ending the spring fire weather season. Additionally, there is no chance for frost or freeze conditions through the end of the week.

AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR/unrestricted conditions should remain in place across central PA terminal sites into this evening. Confidence on this scenario is fairly high (70-90%).

An area of showers could reach the Allegheny Highlands late in the day (as early as 21-22z) and perhaps bring fuel alternate- MVFR restrictions at KJST and KBFD. The threat for MVFR cigs then increases substantially between 22z Fri and 02z Sat across the Laurels and Alleghenies, including JST, BFD, AOO, and UNV.

Conds will continue to deteriorate Fri night into early Sat morning as southeast onshore flow advects cooler, moist air from the North Atlantic. IFR cigs are likely (60 percent chance or higher) for most TAF sites by 12z Sat, with the exception of IPT.

Light surface winds will increase out of the SE to 5-10 kt Friday. Occasional gusts of around 20 kt could occur in the afternoon. Southeast flow will continue into Saturday.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a chance of TSRA.

Mon-Tues...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CLIMATE
Several records were tied or set on Thursday May 2nd: SITE OBSERVED TEMP PREVIOUS RECORD Altoona 87F 87 in 1954 Harrisburg 90F 88 in 1913 State College ??* 86 in 1938 Williamsport 89F 89 in 2018

*Official report from State College will be available Friday morning.

May 2nd was also the first 90F day at Harrisburg. It is the 13th earliest 90F day on record. The earliest 90F day occurred on April 17th in 1896 and 2002. The average first 90F day is June 1st.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:55 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:22 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Millside
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:26 PM EDT     5.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware , Tide feet

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