Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Moorefield, NE
May 3, 2024 4:53 AM CDT (09:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 3:20 AM Moonset 2:33 PM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 030921 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 421 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Becoming windy this morning into this afternoon across southwest Nebraska.
- Showers and thunderstorms spread west to east across Nebraska this afternoon into this evening. Some storms will have potential for damaging wind and large hail mainly along and south of Highway 2. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out primarily well south of Interstate 80 heading toward the Kansas border.
- After a mostly dry weekend, windy conditions with showers and thunderstorms return Sunday night into Monday with potential for severe storms late Monday especially east of Highway 83.
- Temperatures a bit cool through the weekend, then after a brief warmup trending back below normal mid to late next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
There will be some sprinkles/light showers this morning as a warm front pushes northward and eventually stalls out across northern Nebraska. Behind this front southerly winds across southwest Nebraska will howl this morning into this afternoon as diurnal heating mixes down some high momentum from a brisk low level jet. These southerly winds will also bring moisture into Nebraska ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. However the moisture is somewhat limited and meso guidance is in general agreement that this will prevent significant destabilization with mean SBCAPE values ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front generally 500 to 900 J/Kg. With strong forcing from the front this will be enough instability to support convection along/ahead of the cold front that will move across southwestern Nebraska generally from west to east late this afternoon through this evening, though the lack of significant instability will be a key limiting factor preventing a more serious convective threat today.
Ample shear will be present with 0-3km bulk shear values generally at or above 30kt creating fairly well shaped hodographs, though with little orthogonal component of deep layer shear vectors to the cold front expect initial development will evolve into a linear convective mode, perhaps with several clusters/line segments coalescing into one more dominant QLCS structure along the southern flank building toward the greater instability further south. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPEs will support potential for strong gusty winds and lapse rates aloft may be able to support a threat for large hail. An isolated QLCS spin up tornado also can not be ruled out primarilyfurther south closer to the better instability heading toward the KS border. Storms move off to the east early tonight, leaving dry but cool conditions across central and western Nebraska through the first part of the weekend.
With the warm front lingering across the region today there will be a good spread to temperatures. Highs will range from the lower 50s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 70s south of I-80. Saturday will be uniformly cool with highs generally in the lower 60s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and in the 30s tomorrow night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Sunday, A deep upper trough will move into the Great Basin with a closed low centered over Nevada. Upper flow will be southwesterly over the area with dewpoints rising into the mid 40s to low 50s with a slight chance for afternoon showers.
Sunday night through Monday night, the upper trough will take on a negative tilt and extend from western MT through southeastern CO by 18Z Monday. May see a distinct dryline develop across the west with dewpoints into the 50s across the east. Models agree showers and storm will increase through the day as they move eastward. Due to a strongly sheared environment with steep lapse rates, surface features will play as strong role in where the strong to severe storms focus. SPC is highlighting a Slight Risk for severe weather Monday into Monday evening east of Highway 83. A further westward shift is possible. Keep informed of future updates on the evolution of this approaching system Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday, the upper flow will remain fairly zonal as a fairly west to east upper trough and closed low extends across the Northern Plains. This will keep at least a low chance for showers and perhaps a few afternoon evening thunderstorms in the forecast. Highs will remain slightly below normal mainly in the 60s during the period. Windy conditions possible Tuesday into Wednesday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
VFR will continue through midday Friday for western and north central Nebraska terminals, then aviation weather concerns arise. Clouds thicken and ceilings lower throughout the day as a storm system approaches the area. Rain showers begin to overspread northern terminals (VTN) by late morning, then a line of thunderstorms will likely cross the area late afternoon or early evening with additional rain showers to follow. A boundary will separate strong southerly winds gusting 30kts at southern terminals (LBF) from relatively lighter east/northeast flow for northern terminals (VTN). Winds should flip to north/northwesterly behind the storms around sunset.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 421 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Becoming windy this morning into this afternoon across southwest Nebraska.
- Showers and thunderstorms spread west to east across Nebraska this afternoon into this evening. Some storms will have potential for damaging wind and large hail mainly along and south of Highway 2. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out primarily well south of Interstate 80 heading toward the Kansas border.
- After a mostly dry weekend, windy conditions with showers and thunderstorms return Sunday night into Monday with potential for severe storms late Monday especially east of Highway 83.
- Temperatures a bit cool through the weekend, then after a brief warmup trending back below normal mid to late next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
There will be some sprinkles/light showers this morning as a warm front pushes northward and eventually stalls out across northern Nebraska. Behind this front southerly winds across southwest Nebraska will howl this morning into this afternoon as diurnal heating mixes down some high momentum from a brisk low level jet. These southerly winds will also bring moisture into Nebraska ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the northwest. However the moisture is somewhat limited and meso guidance is in general agreement that this will prevent significant destabilization with mean SBCAPE values ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front generally 500 to 900 J/Kg. With strong forcing from the front this will be enough instability to support convection along/ahead of the cold front that will move across southwestern Nebraska generally from west to east late this afternoon through this evening, though the lack of significant instability will be a key limiting factor preventing a more serious convective threat today.
Ample shear will be present with 0-3km bulk shear values generally at or above 30kt creating fairly well shaped hodographs, though with little orthogonal component of deep layer shear vectors to the cold front expect initial development will evolve into a linear convective mode, perhaps with several clusters/line segments coalescing into one more dominant QLCS structure along the southern flank building toward the greater instability further south. Steep low level lapse rates and modest DCAPEs will support potential for strong gusty winds and lapse rates aloft may be able to support a threat for large hail. An isolated QLCS spin up tornado also can not be ruled out primarilyfurther south closer to the better instability heading toward the KS border. Storms move off to the east early tonight, leaving dry but cool conditions across central and western Nebraska through the first part of the weekend.
With the warm front lingering across the region today there will be a good spread to temperatures. Highs will range from the lower 50s across northwest Nebraska to the lower 70s south of I-80. Saturday will be uniformly cool with highs generally in the lower 60s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and in the 30s tomorrow night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Sunday, A deep upper trough will move into the Great Basin with a closed low centered over Nevada. Upper flow will be southwesterly over the area with dewpoints rising into the mid 40s to low 50s with a slight chance for afternoon showers.
Sunday night through Monday night, the upper trough will take on a negative tilt and extend from western MT through southeastern CO by 18Z Monday. May see a distinct dryline develop across the west with dewpoints into the 50s across the east. Models agree showers and storm will increase through the day as they move eastward. Due to a strongly sheared environment with steep lapse rates, surface features will play as strong role in where the strong to severe storms focus. SPC is highlighting a Slight Risk for severe weather Monday into Monday evening east of Highway 83. A further westward shift is possible. Keep informed of future updates on the evolution of this approaching system Monday.
Tuesday through Thursday, the upper flow will remain fairly zonal as a fairly west to east upper trough and closed low extends across the Northern Plains. This will keep at least a low chance for showers and perhaps a few afternoon evening thunderstorms in the forecast. Highs will remain slightly below normal mainly in the 60s during the period. Windy conditions possible Tuesday into Wednesday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
VFR will continue through midday Friday for western and north central Nebraska terminals, then aviation weather concerns arise. Clouds thicken and ceilings lower throughout the day as a storm system approaches the area. Rain showers begin to overspread northern terminals (VTN) by late morning, then a line of thunderstorms will likely cross the area late afternoon or early evening with additional rain showers to follow. A boundary will separate strong southerly winds gusting 30kts at southern terminals (LBF) from relatively lighter east/northeast flow for northern terminals (VTN). Winds should flip to north/northwesterly behind the storms around sunset.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
North Platte, NE,
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