Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 2:39 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1012 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Overnight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 1012 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A backdoor cold front passes through tonight followed by high pressure building down the new england coast through Friday. The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 030256 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1056 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front passes through overnight followed by high pressure building down the New England coast through Friday.
The high retreats farther offshore on Saturday as a frontal system approaches from the west. This system moves slowly through the region Saturday night into Sunday with the associated cold front passing through Monday. The front then stalls south of the region and moves back north as a warm front Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front approaches for Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A backdoor cold front will pass through the region overnight, with gusty NE winds in its wake. Behind the front, the surface high will build down from eastern Canada and along the New England coast. NE winds will advect in moist Canadian maritime airmass under a subsidence inversion, which should allow for advection of stratus late tonight into Friday morning. Stratus should gradually erode from e to w Friday morning into afternoon.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest across the NYC metro. Highs then warm up into the upper 50s and lower 60s along the coast, and 65-70 inland. This is slightly above normal.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure gradually retreats offshore during this time as a slow moving frontal system approaches from the SW. This will allow for increasing clouds Friday night into Saturday. ESE winds will continue during this time with temperatures remaining several degrees below normal, in fact it will be cooler for inland area versus the previous day due to increase in clouds and onshore flow. Warm advection could bring a few showers in late in the day, mainly north and west of NYC.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level ridge axis shifts offshore late Saturday night into early Sunday and the flow becomes near zonal into early next week. A longwave upper trough across eastern Canada amplifies into the northeast Tuesday and moves offshore by Wednesday as another upper ridge builds to the west of the area and moves into the region, while beginning to flatten, Wednesday. The upper flow again become nearly zonal as a tough becomes sheared out across the northern plains and Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface one frontal system slowly approaches from Saturday night through Sunday, while slowly weakening, as the system moves into the upper ridge. Another system passes well to the north with its cold front passing through the region Monday. The trend for these systems Saturday night through Monday as be slower as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic remains highly amplified. The stalled frontal boundary to the south begins to track north as a warm front Monday night and is expected to the north during Wednesday. The area remains warm sectored Thursday as low pressure over the northern plains become sheared. Temperatures will be near to below normal Saturday night into Sunday, then average above normal Sunday night through Thursday, with the warmest days being Wednesday and Thursday. Generally followed the NBM guidance, and for the days with higher temperature spreads, and potential for warmer conditions blended the NBM and 75th percentile. There is still a possibility that a few locations could set record high minimum temperatures Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A backdoor cold front passes through overnight into early Friday morning.

VFR across most terminals through 06-09z. MVFR stratus likely to work in late tonight into early Fri AM from e to w behind backdoor cold frontal passage. Gradual improvement to VFR from e to w in the early to mid afternoon Friday.

N winds shift to NE 10-15g20kt in wake of backdoor front, continuing gusty thru Friday morning push. Winds continue to veer to the E/SE Fri afternoon. SE winds subside less than 10 kt thru aft/eve push.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of windshift, and stratus development/dissipation may be off by an hour or so. NE gusts of 15 to 20 kt possible during Fri Am push.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR. Low prob of patchy MVFR stratus towards morning.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
NE winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt overnight into Fri AM, gradually diminishing from NE to SW on Friday. A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub- advisory conditions across the waters Friday night through the middle of next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Democrat Point
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Thu -- 02:13 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:58 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
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Democrat Point, Fire Island Inlet, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

Amityville
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Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:12 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:46 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:57 PM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
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Amityville, Long Island, New York, Tide feet

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