Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 2:39 PM

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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 345 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming E around 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sat night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sun night - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.

ANZ300 345 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure builds in from the north today and begins to weaken over the region on Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front tracks through early Monday, stalling south of the region Tuesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 030811 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 411 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the north today and begins to weaken over the region on Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front tracks through early Monday, stalling south of the region Tuesday. The boundary returns as a warm front on Wednesday, with an associated cold front moving through Thursday. A trailing wave of low pressure may then approach the region from the west late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure builds in from the northeast today. NE winds will continue to advect a moist airmass with stratus under a subsidence inversion early this morning. The stratus should erode during the morning hours, but some cirrus will be around.
Inland areas farthest away from the cool easterly flow will end up with the warmest temperatures this afternoon - up around 70.
60s otherwise for most other spots. Partly to mostly cloudy, but dry conditions for tonight with lows in the low 50s in the city and 45-50 elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A ridge axis aloft will be right over us during Saturday and slow to move. It'll be to our east Sunday morning and continue its slow path east through Sunday night. This will help keep us dry Saturday morning as moisture ahead of an approaching cold front runs into the ridge. Will leave in low chances of a shower west of the Hudson River for Saturday afternoon as per qpf output for a couple of the models as well as NBM, but thinking anything that falls will be relatively brief and light. Rain chances then slowly increase west to east through Saturday night before showers become likely during Sunday into Sunday night. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder Sunday afternoon and night with some elevated CAPE around. Forecast PWATS are not too concerning, so no hydrologic impacts are anticipated with this system. NBM temperatures looked good for the short term period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A rather active period next week, though not necessarily a washout, with a slow moving front nearby and waves of low pressure helping instigate periodic chances for precipitation into late next week.

Cold front moves through early Monday, leaving weak high pressure to nose in from the north. The front stalls over the Mid-Atlantic as it runs into ridging, eventually returning as a warm front late Tuesday or Wednesday. It's possible a weak wave of low pressure develops along the boundary and passes just south of the region as it tracks offshore Monday night into Tuesday, but global guidance is mixed at this stage in development and placement of the low. As it appears now, best chances of seeing any impacts are along the coast and points south. A relatively quiet afternoon expected Tuesday before PoPs increase once again Tuesday night as the front attempts to lift north toward the region. The region likely sits in the warm sector Wednesday, and soundings hint at convective development ahead of the approaching cold front that could lead to thunderstorms in parts of the region Wed afternoon or evening. A brief dry out behind the fropa before another wave of low pressure attempts to develop as a shortwave swings east into late week, bringing additional chances of rain.

Temperatures should average above normal through Thursday, generally in the 70s most afternoons away from the immediate coastline.
National blended guidance was generally followed for this update, with some subtle adjustments to cap PoPs and bump max Ts a few degrees Mon/Tue.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak high pressure builds in through the day.

VFR to start, though MVFR stratus is attempting to work into the region from east to west early this morning behind a cold frontal passage. Gradual improvement to VFR thru early to mid afternoon.
Cigs may fall once again into early Sat AM with potential stratus development.

NE flow has developed behind the front with speeds increasing to around 10 kt and gusts up to 20 kt by daybreak. These gusts should persist thru morning push before abating. Winds continue to veer to the E/SE in the afternoon. SE winds subside less than 10 kt thru aft/eve push.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

NE gusts up to 20 kt may be more occasional during AM push.

Timing of windshift, and stratus development/dissipation may be off by a couple of hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR stratus.
Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon, increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90



MARINE
NE winds around 15kt with perhaps a few gusts up to 25kt expected this morning before cold advection and the pressure gradient lessens this afternoon. Seas should build up to around 4ft this afternoon into evening before subsiding overnight. Relatively tranquil conditions then continue through Saturday night. Winds then increase a little on Sunday well ahead of a cold front, but should remain below advisory thresholds.

A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub advisory conditions across the waters through mid next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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West Fire Island
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Fri -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
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Fri -- 12:57 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
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Fri -- 01:02 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
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