Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 3:19 AM   Moonset 2:32 PM

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FXUS63 KGID 031143 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 643 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and storm chances increase (up to 90 to 100%) this evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds, hail up to the size of half dollars, and localized flooding.

- Another good chance of rain and thunderstorms (up to near 90%)
Monday into Monday night with severe storms possible.

- High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s through the weekend, then in the 40s and 50s next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Today and tonight...

Aloft (at 500 mb), a broad upper trough extends across the northern Plains and further west dives further south across the western CONUS. At the surface, a developing trough extends across the northern Plains toward the Rockies with a surface low over southeastern Utah, with a surface high over the central Plains. Today, the surface high will move to the east while the surface low strengthens and moves east toward eastern CO by this evening and into the Hastings forecast area by midnight, dragging a cold front behind it. Meanwhile, the deeper upper trough will move east over the central Plains this evening and tonight with a pronounced shortwave moving over the forecast area this evening. High temperatures today will be in the 70s. The latest CAM guidance shows showers and thunderstorms developing over western NE this afternoon, then developing into a line of storms moving east across the area this evening and overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the area from around 7PM to 5-6 AM CDT, with the best chance for severe weather between around 8PM and 2AM. The main threats with this system will be large hail to around the size of half dollars (~1.25" diameter) and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph (this will likely be the main concern). While an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, we are expecting many of the storms to be elevated and with low level moisture struggling to get this far north, the chance for tornadoes remains low.

Even after the thunderstorms move through, expect showers into the morning hours Saturday with gusts of 25-35 mph out of the north behind the front. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 30s north and west to the mid- to upper 40s south and east.

This weekend...

Showers and thunderstorms will move off to the east-southeast Saturday morning. Surface high pressure will move over the region Saturday while an upper ridge moves over the area late Saturday into Sunday. Saturday will be dry after the lingering showers/storms move out early morning with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will remain dry as well for many areas, but an upper level trough across the southern Plains may impact the region enough to bring a few showers/storms to the area Sunday evening and into Monday morning.

Monday...

This will be the next chance for severe thunderstorms, assuming showers and storms earlier in the morning do not make the environment unfavorable for this. That being said, a deep upper level trough will extend from western Canada into the central and southern Plains, while a surface front moves across the Plains Monday and Monday night. With high temperatures in the 70s, there is a high chance (around 80%) of showers and thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon and evening. Latest model guidance indicates that there will be enough instability and shear to support severe thunderstorms during this time, with storms anticipated to move out of the area overnight Monday night.

Next Tuesday through next Thursday...

High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with periodic low chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms through the period, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Winds: South winds up to 10 kts are expected to start the period this morning. There are a few showers west of the TAF sites this morning but confidence of impacts at the terminals too low to include in the TAFs. South winds will increase going into this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kts expected. Winds will become southeasterly this evening with gusts to 25 kts, then northerly tonight as a front moves through with gusts of around 30 kts. Northerly winds will prevail through the end of the TAF period with gusts up to 25 kts behind the front.

Precipitation: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the TAF sites this evening and overnight as a front moves through. Expect at least -RA with VCTS from approximately 04/02Z until 04/09Z, with periods of TSRA within that window, most likely in the 04/03 to 04/06 timeframe.

Flight Category: VFR until this evening when -RA and VCTS move in. IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected this evening through the end of the TAF period.

LLWS: A brief window of LLWS is possible just along and behind the front overnight.

GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.

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