Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carteret, NJ

KEY MESSAGES
1. Periods of fog and drizzle possible through late tonight, ending with a period of rain from a cold frontal passage on Sunday.

2. Cooler, quieter conditions settle in mid next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
High pressure builds north of the area today as a low pressure system develops well west of the area.

A decaying cold front pushes through the area early morning allowing a S/W flow to shift more NW/N. High pressure north of the area shifts east through the day allowing flow to shift more NE, reinforcing a more marine airmass back over the area late today. This will prevent high temperatures from climbing too much today, generally peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast with perhaps middle to upper 60s for western areas.
The NE flow also brings the chance of low stratus and fog development tonight as a strongly inverted low level will trap moisture in the BL.

The weak front once again stalls near or just south of the area tonight. As the frontal system from the west approaches into Sunday, the front may move back north as a weak warm front, allowing for the development of scattered showers over the area late tonight. The associated cold front will gradually push through on Sunday, bringing a period of rainfall to the entire area as the front pushes through. Instability will be low but a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out along with pockets of moderate to possibly briefly heavy rainfall. Total rainfall accumulations of 0.25-0.5 inches are possible across the entire area.

Following the frontal passage, conditions look to dry out as high pressure noses in from the south Sunday night into Monday.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Weak front moves through Monday night into Tuesday, with conditions turning cooler and quieter behind it through mid next week. A few scattered showers, perhaps even mixing with wet snow across the interior, are possible with the fropa early Tue AM, but coverage appears spotty and QPF is light.

Surface high pressure then builds over the region in its wake with dry conditions expected. The high ushers in a cool Canadian air mass, with daytime temperatures likely in the 40s and 50s, or about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for early April.
These cooler conditions become more seasonable by Thursday with perhaps a warming trend into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A cold front passes this morning. High pressure builds in today, and over the Atlc tngt. A stronger cold front approaches from the W on Sun.

Areas of IFR possible this mrng, but mainly MVFR or better is expected attm. Primarily VFR aft 14Z, then fog and perhaps DZ develops tngt with IFR or lower likely. Rain develops aft 12Z Sun ahead of the next front.

VRB winds become N/NE this morning after the fropa. Winds then become E/SE 10-20 kt this afternoon and eve, before decreasing overnight. Winds veer to the SW and increase again Sun mrng before the next fropa.

Marginal LLWS ern arpts Sun mrng, and has been included in the TAF for ISP.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Fog and DZ coverage could be quicker and more widespread tngt, however timing likely remains aft 00Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Sunday: IFR/LIFR cond with fog and low stratus in the morning, otherwise showers with MVFR cond. Improving to VFR by evening.
SW winds G20kt daytime, becoming NW late in the day.

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G15-20 kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible in any showers. W winds around 10 kt with G15-20 kt.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers. N winds becoming NE at 10 kt or less.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory on the ocean has been extended through tonight. While conditions may drop below SCA this morning, gusts will once again approach 25 kt this afternoon with seas right around 5 feet through tonight, even as gusts drop off.

An approaching frontal system will lead to climbing seas and stronger winds. Gusts of near 35 kt are possible on Sunday with a Gale Watch remaining in effect for portions of the ocean.

Decreasing winds and seas on Mon, then all waters blw SCA lvls through at least Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for ANZ350-353.