Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 3:11 AM   Moonset 2:24 PM

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FXUS63 KGID 030553 AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1253 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and storm chances increase (up to near 90%) Friday evening and night. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging winds, hail up to quarter size, and localized flooding.

- Rain and storm chances increase again (up to near 70%) on Monday with severe storms possible (about a 30% chance).

- High temperatures will mostly be in the 60s and 70s. Low temperatures will be in the 30s to 50s.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 218 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper trough extends from the West Coast to the Midwest. Breezy northwest winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures are mostly in the 60s with clearing skies. Winds will transition to the south tonight as the surface high moves east of the area. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Friday and Friday night...

An upper trough from the west will begin moving over the northern and central Plains on Friday. Winds will increase out of the south to southeast Friday afternoon. High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. The central part of the upper trough will move over the region Friday evening into Friday night accompanied by a cold front. Atmospheric lift will increase across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Fairly high wind shear, moisture, and mid-level lapse rates will be across the area as well Friday night. These conditions will allow for an increase in rain and storm chances (up to near 90%) Friday evening and night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with most of the area outlooked in a marginal risk of severe weather per the latest SPC Day 2 outlook. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat with these storms although some hail up to the size of quarters and localized flooding will be possible. Low temperatures Friday night are expected to range from the mid 30s to low 50s.

Saturday through Sunday night...

The showers and thunderstorms are expected to move east of the forecast area Saturday morning. Northerly winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday with clearing skies. High temperatures will mostly be in the 60s on Saturday. Winds will transition to the east to southeast Saturday night as the surface high moves across eastern Nebraska into Iowa.
Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s Saturday night. An upper trough will be present over the western part of the country on Sunday with upper disturbances moving over Nebraska and Kansas. Some rain showers will be possible (up to around a 40% chance) in the morning and afternoon on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be in the 60s with breezy southeast winds. These breezy southeast winds will continue into Sunday night with low temperatures in the 50s. Rain and storm chances (up to around 50%)
will continue Sunday night as the upper trough from the west begins to move over the central and northern Plains.

Monday and Monday night...

The upper trough will move further east on Monday and will begin to lift northeast by Monday evening with the upper low over Kansas and Nebraska. Winds will continue to strengthen out of the southeast to south on Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible (up to near a 70% chance). High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible (about a 30% chance) Monday afternoon into the early evening hours.
The storms are expected to move out of the area Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the 40s. Winds Monday night will be gusty out of the southwest to west.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...

A big upper trough will be present from the northern Plains to the southern Plains on Tuesday. Winds will be gusty out of the west Tuesday afternoon across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures will mostly be in the 70s.
Low temperatures Tuesday night will mostly be in the 40s. The upper trough will still be present over the northern and central Plains on Wednesday with a cold front moving into the area. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will mostly be in the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Relatively light S to SE winds are expected through at least the early morning hours with surface high pressure sitting over the area. As the high moves east, S winds will increase throughout the morning, with speeds of around 10-12 kts after sunrise. As a cold front approaches this afternoon and evening, winds will become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens, with gusts of around 25 kts expected this afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area this evening and overnight, with RA and TSRA mentioned at both TAF sites.
There will be a switch in wind direction from SE to N as the front moves through this evening, likely around 04/03Z but would advise that this could be a couple of hours on either side of that, depending on how accurate the latest model guidance is.
Expect gusts of at least 30-35 kts for a brief period as the front moves through. Showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible beyond the end of this TAF period, potentially out until 09Z-12Z Saturday.



GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...None.
KS...None.

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