Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Thornburg, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light snow showers and flurries possible this afternoon - Cold temperatures stick around through tomorrow morning -----------------------------------------------------------

Lake-effect snow showers ended earlier this morning, but light snow and flurry chances will return briefly this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves through the northwest flow aloft.
Better snow chances will stay well north of our area, but light snow is possible for Pittsburgh northward with perhaps a dusting in some locations. Impacts will be negligible, except brief reduction in visibilities.

Otherwise, partly sunny but cold weather continues today. Clouds will increase with the crossing shortwave, but clearing is expected again by this evening and overnight. With light wind, clearing sky, and snow cover on the ground, temperatures will drop off quickly after sunset. Lows will be in the single digits to lower teens once again Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday - Warming temperatures ----------------------------------------------------------------

Upper ridging will build over the area on Tuesday, with rising heights helping high temperatures climb to near or slightly above freezing. High confidence in dry weather on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, low pressure will cross from northern Ontario into Quebec, bringing a weak cold front through the region. Chances for an precipitation have decreased to near zero, but this will help increase cloud cover. Despite frontal passage, temperatures will moderate to near-average by Wednesday afternoon as highs push into the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread rain chances return Thursday.
- Quick cold-shot on Friday.
- Rain possible this weekend.
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The pattern shaping up for the long term forecast keeps a progressive pattern in place across the area for Thursday with a stout but weakened ridge over the west and a broad trough over the east. This will usher in another major shortwave tracking the area by Thursday. a southerly surge of warmer air ahead of this system with rain expected at the onset. There certainly is a case where a few instances of pockets of cold air could allow for an instance or 2 with freezing rain. Confidence in this potential is low but will need monitored as the time approaches.

Lingering lake effect snow chances on Friday will be dependent on trough strength. At this time, a weaker trough is more likely, leading to warmer temperatures and lower lake effect chances. Any snow accumulation on Friday would mostly be limited to areas north of Pittsburgh and in the ridges.

Heading into the weekend, the pattern remains active with numerous disturbances tracking along the northern border. This will bring slightly warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend and into the start of next week. The pattern suggests little changes with no major intrusions of cold air or warmer air. Thus temperatures will be roughly 5 to 7 degrees above normal. This lines up with the CPC outlooks showing warmer than normal conditions through the end of the long term. This should persist into Christmas as well. Unsettled weather is expected this weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Expect ceilings to lift as the next trough passes to the north ------------------------------------------------------------

A few instances of snow is possible through the afternoon and in to the overnight as a trough passes to the north. Expect a few instances of MVFR or IFR conditions before beginning to lift heading into the overnight. Much of the area will be under a mid level deck at about 10kft that will persist through the overnight. VFR conditions are expected tonight and into the day tomorrow.

Outlook... General VFR should last through Wednesday as high pressure briefly builds in. Restrictions look to return later Thursday with an approaching low. Mild temperatures lean towards rain with this system.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.