Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 2:12 PM

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FXUS63 KEAX 030541 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1241 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through the evening hours.
Training storms are causing flash flooding issues mainly east of a line extending from Kirksville, MO through Ottawa, KS. Please be careful if traveling.

- Friday looks to be dry with another round of storms expected late Friday night into Saturday. Scattered storms are possible throughout the weekend mainly south of I-70.

- There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Monday.
All severe hazards are possible. The forecast will be refined as Monday approaches.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A cold front is steadily working its way through the region.
Progress has been slow keeping showers and thunderstorms around through the much of the afternoon. The primary concern through this evening is training storms across areas along a line stretching from Kirksville southwest through Ottawa, KS east of the I-35 corridor. Dynamic interactions between the front and southerly flow across Central MO caused the front to retrograde NW through the late morning hours. A building high to the west has restarted the eastward push of the front this afternoon.
This has resulted in portions of north central MO through east central KS receiving around 1-4 inches of rain over the past several hours. This has exacerbate hydrological impacts with reports of flash flooding in urban areas and areas which have received lots of rainfall over the past 7 days. Training storms look to continue especially across east of the I-35 corridor.

High pressure builds in through the evening hours pushing rain out this evening/overnight. Winds steadily circle the compass rose from south to northwest eventually becoming easterly as the surface high pushes across IA tomorrow. A small shortwave may bring some isolated showers late Friday afternoon across areas south of US-50; however, those will likely dissipated fairly quickly after sunset. A more pronounced shortwave enters the area Friday evening into Saturday with showers and thunderstorms looking to arrive Saturday morning and traverse the region through the morning hours look to depart in the mid afternoon. The active weather pattern looks to continue over the next several days. Another leeward wave looks to pass south of the region Sunday which could bring more showers and thunderstorms across areas south of I-70 as well as east of US-65.

The most prominent feature of this active pattern is an anticipated trough which lands on the West Coast early Saturday morning. As it traverses the Rockies Monday, it becomes negatively tilted which brings the potential for strong to severe storms across the area Monday afternoon and evening. Uncertainties remain regarding where exactly the area of greatest potential for severe weather lies.
Models have been oscillating between southern and northern Plains.
SPC outlooks highlights this uncertainty with their Day 5 risk extending across most of the central Plains. Regardless of finer details, the potential for strong to severe storms including all severe hazards is possible during the afternoon and evening Monday.
Latest guidance leans towards overnight widespread rainfall for western MO. Expected PWAT values above 1-1.5 inches presents further opportunities for flooding as heavy downpours are possible. Extended guidance persists the active pattern through next week suggesting more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers have exited the terminals to the east, leaving VFR conditions and light northerly winds in its wake. Outside of some patchy fog briefly lowering VSBYs to MVFR at STJ early Friday morning, VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Light northerly winds will become easterly by mid Friday morning, increasing slightly toward 9 to 10 knots.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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