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FXUS61 KILN 031320 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 920 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front will move east across the area later today and into tonight. This will bring showers and a chance for thunderstorms today into Saturday, along with some cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/
The forecast remains on track: Embedded mid level energy in southwest flow aloft will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley region through this afternoon. This will be accompanied by a weak cold front that will push into our area from the west later today. Moist southwest flow ahead of this will allow for showers to overspread mainly our western areas through mid morning and then the remainder of our area heading into this afternoon. Instability will remain fairly marginal so will just allow for a chance of some embedded thunderstorms today. With some cooler air moving in from the west, highs today will range from the mid 70s west to the lower 80s east.

SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
The mid level energy will push off to the east through tonight as the weak cold front gradually weakens as it moves across our eastern areas. As a result, expect an overall decreasing trend in pcpn from the west tonight with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Southwest flow will persist aloft through the day on Saturday with some weak mid level energy again lifting northeast across the region. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with sbcapes climbing up to around 1000 J/KG or so through the afternoon. With forcing aloft fairly weak, will limit pops to mainly chance category across much of the area for Saturday.
The exception may be across our east, closer to the washing out front, where will include some likely pops across at least our far east during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
While the forecast may seem a bit muddied with a potential of showers and thunderstorms through the period, there is good reasoning to have them there.

First, overnight lows are only 5-10 degrees below normal. Normal high temperatures. A clear signal where temperatures across the region drop below 60 overnight doesn't seem to come about until Friday night (beyond this forecast). Thursday night looks to be within a few degrees of 60 across the CWA, but until then, 60-65 is expected. The warmest nights will be Tuesday and Wednesday where some locations to the southeast might only drop into the upper 60s.

This prolonged period of overnight warmth leads to/stems from an abundance of moisture in the area. Couple this moisture with high temperatures generally running from the mid 70s to around 80 and forcing mechanisms at the surface or aloft at one time or another, and you just can't rule out shower and thunderstorm activity. More like summer, only without the blisteringly higher temperatures one might expect.

During the period, Tuesday will see everyone within a few degrees of 80 but Wednesday will be the warmest with lower 80s expected, and some mid 80s possible in the southern CWA Both high and low temperatures from the Euro ensembles show a fairly tight standard deviation of 2-3 through the entire forecast, meaning a higher confidence in narrowing the expected range in both high and low temps.

Second, lifting mechanisms of one sort or another remain a larger than average threat to be over the Ohio Valley and CWA for this period. Saturday night will start with lingering storms that should be decaying after initiation from daytime heating. A cold front is pushing in overnight and while weakening, is still moving into a relatively moist environment and could propagate any lingering storms through the night. This front stretches and weakens on Sunday, but maintains a moisture boundary due to a strong high pressure center to the north. This could lead to showers over the southern CWA during the day and more overnight as the remnant boundary becomes more pronounced from w-e. Monday/Monday night keeps the boundary stretched through the CWA It exits north-northeast on Tuesday and NBM pops given are much too high with likely in the west. A simple chance of showers/storms would be the better middle ground forecast.

Now on Wednesday, warm sector showers/storms on southwest flow are more likely and could continue overnight. A surface low/front is progged on Thursday with the mean sw flow aloft not showing much change. Friday's potential of storms is focused on the potential of a surface low developing near/west of the CWA ahead of a l/w H5 trough, with the low dropping a front through the region.

The cumulative pattern suggests potential rainfall/flooding issues either with individual MCS episodes or from repeated rounds of convection. This is as the upper ridge slowly flattens and low-mid level flow lines up wsw by mid week. Starting Friday, an effective frontal passage should begin to settle south of the area with cooler/drier conditions possible for the weekend.

AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level disturbance will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley today into tonight as a weak cold moves into the area from the west. This will lead to occasional showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily through today. Will generally cover this with a prevailing -shra, although there will likely be breaks in the showers at times today. Will keep prevailing conditions VFR, although some occasional MVFR conditions will be possible in some of the more significant showers.

Will linger some VCSHs in the TAFs through this evening but we should see an overall decreasing trend in coverage from the west tonight. Some MVFR cigs and vsbys will then develop later tonight into Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday. MVFR conditions are possible again Sunday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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