Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Palmer Lake, CO
May 3, 2024 6:05 AM MDT (12:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:37 AM Moonset 2:54 PM |
Area Discussion for - Pueblo, CO
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPUB 030944 AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 344 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Plains today with one or two strong to severe storms possible, generally north and east of a line from La Junta to Kim.
- Critical Fire Weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley today.
- Strong and gusty winds for much of the area Sunday and Monday.
- Critical fire weather conditions will likely return to portions of the area starting Monday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the Rockies, with another short wave trough translating through the faster flow across the Intermountain West at this time. Regional radars and satellite imagery indicating mid and high level clouds streaming across the Rockies, with a few waa showers lifting out across the eastern I-70 Corridor into northern portions of Kiowa County at this time.
Latest model data supports increasing southwest flow aloft through the day today, as the embedded wave across the Intermountain West continues into the Northern Rockies. This will lead to lee troughing developing and deepening across the southeast Plains through the afternoon, with breezy south to Southeast low level winds advecting low level moisture into southeast Colorado, with dew pts in the mid 40s to lower 50s supporting CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon, generally north and east of a La Junta to Kim line. Bulk shears of 30-40kts will be present across the southeast Plains this afternoon, and with steep lapse rates and convergence along the expected advancing dry line, could see one or two strong to severe storms producing strong outflow winds up to 60 mph and half dollar sized hail across the southeast Plains this afternoon.
Latest HRRR paintball data indicates a few helicity swaths developing from 2 pm to 8 pm across the plains, with storms possibly congealing into a large convective cluster associated with the passing waves cold front pushing south across eastern Colorado through the evening.
West of the dryline, breezy west to southwest winds can be expected this afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions expected across the San Luis Valley into portions of the Southern I-25 Corridor, with current fuel status supporting the Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley from 11 AM to 8 PM. Passing cold front brings gusty northerly winds of 25 to 45 mph across the plains this evening, with a low chance of of an isolated shower across the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa into the late evening. Clearing skies through the overnight hours could also bring some patchy frost to areas along the Palmer Dvd early Saturday morning.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Saturday...The area will be under weaker flow aloft as another Pacific low system pushes onshore across northern CA. The frontal passage Friday evening will swing surface winds around to an easterly direction Sat morning, pushing remnant moisture back towards the higher terrain. This will fuel afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with more activity expected across the mts and immediate adjacent plains, and SPC has the entire forecast area under a General Thunder area. Plan on high temps in the 60s for most locations.
Sunday and Monday...Ensembles still indicate that the most likely track of this next system will be across the Great Basin on Sunday, then ejecting to the northeast across northern UT, WY and MT Sunday night through Monday. The system strengthens considerably, and reaches eastern MT by early Tue morning. This track is expected to produce strong southerly winds across the forecast area on Sunday, then strong west winds on Monday. Sunday looks like it will be the warmest day of the extended period with the strong southerly flow, and humidity levels are forecast to remain elevated enough that a fire weather highlight should not be needed. However, on Monday the strong westerly flow should force humidity levels downward, and critical fire weather conditions will make a return. As for precipitation chances, Sunday starts with some lingering isolated showers near the Kansas border, but by the afternoon activity kicks up across the higher terrain, with the best chances along the Continental Divide where 2 to 4 inches of new snow for the peaks will be possible. By Monday, with the westerly flow, the best chances for any shower activity will be the central mts, spreading to the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide. Look for highs on Sun in the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. On Mon, temps will only climb into the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to mid 70s for the plains.
Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper low will slowly cross ND on Tue, pushing into MN late Wed. Strong westerly flow is expected to continue across the forecast area both days, with isolated showers mainly restricted to the central mts. Fire weather highlight are anticipated for portions of the area both days, as temps warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to near 80F for the plains.
Thursday...A shortwave rotating around the northern low will push a cold front south into CO Wed evening, setting the stage for cooler temps for the forecast area as well as isolated to scattered convection chances returning to the eastern plains. Moore
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Low VFR cigs of sct-bkn30-40 at COS and PUB early morning to diminish by sunrise with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period.
Lee troughing deepens across the southeast plains through the morning, leading to breezy south to southwest winds of 15-25kts at COS and PUB this afternoon. A strong cold front will push south of the Palmer Dvd between 00Z-02Z with gusty northerly winds of 25-40kts expected at the terminals through the evening hours. While can't rule out an isolated shower pushing south along the front, however, the probability is too low to include in the tafs attm.
VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours, with gusty west to southwest winds of 15-30kts expected this afternoon into the early evening.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 344 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Plains today with one or two strong to severe storms possible, generally north and east of a line from La Junta to Kim.
- Critical Fire Weather conditions continue across the San Luis Valley today.
- Strong and gusty winds for much of the area Sunday and Monday.
- Critical fire weather conditions will likely return to portions of the area starting Monday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate west to southwest flow aloft across the Rockies, with another short wave trough translating through the faster flow across the Intermountain West at this time. Regional radars and satellite imagery indicating mid and high level clouds streaming across the Rockies, with a few waa showers lifting out across the eastern I-70 Corridor into northern portions of Kiowa County at this time.
Latest model data supports increasing southwest flow aloft through the day today, as the embedded wave across the Intermountain West continues into the Northern Rockies. This will lead to lee troughing developing and deepening across the southeast Plains through the afternoon, with breezy south to Southeast low level winds advecting low level moisture into southeast Colorado, with dew pts in the mid 40s to lower 50s supporting CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon, generally north and east of a La Junta to Kim line. Bulk shears of 30-40kts will be present across the southeast Plains this afternoon, and with steep lapse rates and convergence along the expected advancing dry line, could see one or two strong to severe storms producing strong outflow winds up to 60 mph and half dollar sized hail across the southeast Plains this afternoon.
Latest HRRR paintball data indicates a few helicity swaths developing from 2 pm to 8 pm across the plains, with storms possibly congealing into a large convective cluster associated with the passing waves cold front pushing south across eastern Colorado through the evening.
West of the dryline, breezy west to southwest winds can be expected this afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions expected across the San Luis Valley into portions of the Southern I-25 Corridor, with current fuel status supporting the Red Flag Warning for the San Luis Valley from 11 AM to 8 PM. Passing cold front brings gusty northerly winds of 25 to 45 mph across the plains this evening, with a low chance of of an isolated shower across the Palmer Dvd and Raton Mesa into the late evening. Clearing skies through the overnight hours could also bring some patchy frost to areas along the Palmer Dvd early Saturday morning.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Saturday...The area will be under weaker flow aloft as another Pacific low system pushes onshore across northern CA. The frontal passage Friday evening will swing surface winds around to an easterly direction Sat morning, pushing remnant moisture back towards the higher terrain. This will fuel afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with more activity expected across the mts and immediate adjacent plains, and SPC has the entire forecast area under a General Thunder area. Plan on high temps in the 60s for most locations.
Sunday and Monday...Ensembles still indicate that the most likely track of this next system will be across the Great Basin on Sunday, then ejecting to the northeast across northern UT, WY and MT Sunday night through Monday. The system strengthens considerably, and reaches eastern MT by early Tue morning. This track is expected to produce strong southerly winds across the forecast area on Sunday, then strong west winds on Monday. Sunday looks like it will be the warmest day of the extended period with the strong southerly flow, and humidity levels are forecast to remain elevated enough that a fire weather highlight should not be needed. However, on Monday the strong westerly flow should force humidity levels downward, and critical fire weather conditions will make a return. As for precipitation chances, Sunday starts with some lingering isolated showers near the Kansas border, but by the afternoon activity kicks up across the higher terrain, with the best chances along the Continental Divide where 2 to 4 inches of new snow for the peaks will be possible. By Monday, with the westerly flow, the best chances for any shower activity will be the central mts, spreading to the Pikes Peak region and Palmer Divide. Look for highs on Sun in the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. On Mon, temps will only climb into the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to mid 70s for the plains.
Tuesday and Wednesday...The upper low will slowly cross ND on Tue, pushing into MN late Wed. Strong westerly flow is expected to continue across the forecast area both days, with isolated showers mainly restricted to the central mts. Fire weather highlight are anticipated for portions of the area both days, as temps warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to near 80F for the plains.
Thursday...A shortwave rotating around the northern low will push a cold front south into CO Wed evening, setting the stage for cooler temps for the forecast area as well as isolated to scattered convection chances returning to the eastern plains. Moore
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 341 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024
Low VFR cigs of sct-bkn30-40 at COS and PUB early morning to diminish by sunrise with VFR conditions expected through the rest of the period.
Lee troughing deepens across the southeast plains through the morning, leading to breezy south to southwest winds of 15-25kts at COS and PUB this afternoon. A strong cold front will push south of the Palmer Dvd between 00Z-02Z with gusty northerly winds of 25-40kts expected at the terminals through the evening hours. While can't rule out an isolated shower pushing south along the front, however, the probability is too low to include in the tafs attm.
VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours, with gusty west to southwest winds of 15-30kts expected this afternoon into the early evening.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAFF USAF ACADEMY AFLD,CO | 15 sm | 10 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 43°F | 30°F | 61% | 29.95 |
Denver/Boulder, CO,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE