Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:00 AM   Moonset 2:14 PM

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FXUS61 KRLX 030625 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 225 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend, then an active pattern continues next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 220 AM Friday...

Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air, transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front, should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during the day.

Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as moderate instability develops within the warm and moist environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and storm activity within the CWA overnight.

Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas; however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry conditions leading up to today.

Tonight's temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the 50s to 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1154 AM Thursday...

Active weather continues for the extended period as another shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the potential for flooding issues increasing during this period, particularly Tuesday onward.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 120 AM Friday...

While VFR is expected to persist for much of the area, some areas of valley fog could form and cause localized restrictions to ceilings or visibilities early this morning. Any fog that does form will dissipate shortly after sunrise, then VFR and increasing mid to high level clouds are expected for the rest of the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and continue into tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Periodic MVFR or worse restrictions will be possible during any heavier showers/storms later today and tonight.

Calm to light winds are expected into the morning, then winds increase to 5-10kts generally out of the southwest during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of fog may vary from the TAFs this morning. MVFR possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 05/03/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times from tonight into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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