Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 2:55 AM   Moonset 2:11 PM

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FXUS63 KEAX 031107 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 607 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight into Saturday morning. A few storms could be strong.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely again on Monday evening and Monday night. Strong to severe storms are possible.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The current synoptic pattern across the CONUS is defined by a 500 mb low and associated troughing over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with ridging over the eastern CONUS. Missouri and Kansas remain generally within west southwesterly flow aloft south of the primary 500 mb jet streak rounding the base of the northern stream trough. At the surface, the frontal boundary that was associated with yesterday's convection continues to exit to the east, with surface high pressure building in behind it. Current conditions across the county warning area are defined by temperatures primarily in the 50s with light northerly winds. It should be a relatively pleasant day today with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 70s with lower humidity and an easterly breeze.

By tonight, a quick moving shortwave trough descends out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains, linking up with the aforementioned mid level low and troughing already present over the Upper Midwest, and sends another cold front toward the region. Convection allowing models (CAMs) suggest that convection should initiate along and ahead of the front over central Nebraska by this evening, with a line or broken line of showers and storms entering into NW Missouri and NE Kansas by around 3 to 4 am tomorrow morning. These storms should continue to move west to east with the front through the morning hours, exiting the region to the east by noon. The SPC HRRR suggests up to 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE to work with along with around 30 to 35 knots of 0 to 6 km bulk shear, so it is possible that a few storms could be strong to marginally severe. SPC concurs with this, as they have the region highlighted within a marginal risk for severe storms for tonight into Saturday morning's convective activity. Additionally, these storms could bring another 0.5 to 0.75" of rain to the region, with locally higher amounts possible.

The precise timing of the cold front will largely impact Saturday's high temperatures. As of now, the forecast highs range from as cold as the mid 60s over NW Missouri to as warm as the mid 70s toward mid Missouri where the cold front is progged to arrive later in the day. Cooler temperatures and some cloud cover should linger into Sunday. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible on Sunday, primarily south of Interstate 70, as a subtle shortwave trough develops over the Southern Plains and a stationary boundary near the MO/AR border begins to lift northward as a warm front.

As we head into Monday, a potent mid/upper trough comes across the Southern Rockies and into the Plains, undergoing lee cyclogenesis and progressively becoming more negatively tilted.
Differences continue with how the GFS and ECMWF handle the system, which will impact overall storm timing and specific severe weather hazards, but showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday evening/night, with strong to severe thunderstorms in play given mid 60s dewpoints, moderate instability, and sufficient deep layer shear. Additionally, locally moderate rainfall will once again be possible, and with the antecedent wet conditions, this could yield more flash and river flooding concerns.

Slight chance to chance probability of precipitation lingers Tuesday into Thursday as models suggest a closed mid level low remaining over the Upper Midwest with southwesterly flow aloft over Missouri and Kansas. Above normal temperatures are likely for Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures dropping a few degrees for Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Patchy fog across northern Missouri through 14Z. Thereafter, VFR conditions throughout the day with easterly winds prevailing. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to approach after 09Z. Have added mention at KSTJ terminal after 10Z, but could be right at 12Z Saturday across the metro or slightly later.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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