Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:36 AM   Moonset 1:09 PM

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FXUS63 KICT 021957 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 257 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms likely Friday night into early Saturday morning with some strong to severe storms possible.

- Rain likely Sunday across southern and southeast KS with severe storms not likely.

- Severe weather episode possible on Monday afternoon/evening

DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low situated over far southern Saskatchewan with a vort lobe rotating into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, visible satellite shows an MCV lifting across far northeast KS and about to move into southeast MO. At the surface, cold front extends from east of Kansas City to just west of Chanute and down into central OK.

Cold front will continue progressing southeast late this afternoon and will be out of the forecast area in the 01-03z time frame. So we will see some showers and storms linger across far southeast KS early this evening with a clearing trend for the remainder of the forecast area. Still looking shower/storm free for Friday with slightly above normal temps. Another piece of energy is expected to track across the Central Plains for Fri into Fri night which will allow a cold front to surge south Fri night. Confidence is increasing for an MCS to dive southeast across much of the forecast area on Fri night into early Sat morning, associated with the cold front. At this time it appears there would be at least a low end severe threat with this activity, with damaging winds possibly the main hazard.
Complex of storms will be pushing through southern KS Sat morning with most of the area precip free by the afternoon hours. Confidence is high in below normal temps for Sat with highs in the 60s for most locations.

By Sat night, there is good model agreement in a deep upper low over Northern CA with a fast moving impulse moving out of the Desert Southwest and across the Southern Plains. This feature will spread a swath of rain across OK and southern KS late Sat night through Sun as it moves into the Ozark region by early Sun evening. Not looking for any strong or severe storms with this activity with a good chance central KS remains dry. Next potential widespread severe weather day looks to arrive on Mon as a potent upper trough tracks across the Rockies and goes negative tilt as it moves out across the Central Plains. The ECMWF is further north with the upper low compared to the GFS and thus has the southern branch of the upper jet moving into Western KS where the GFS has it moving into western OK. Moisture does not look like an issue with this system with the main forecast challenge the position/timing of the dryline and upper jet.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Main aviation concern will be storms this afternoon and early evening across southeast KS.

Cold front currently extends from southeast of KEMP to near KWLD and is continuing to track slowly southeast. A line of storms recently developed along the front and are nearly stationary so far. So currently expecting storms to continue this afternoon between KICT and KCNU with KCNU the only TAF site expected to be affected by storms late this afternoon into the early evening. Outside of a brief period of MVFR cigs at KSLN, confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain at the remaining sites. North winds will come around to the northeast and eventually east by late tonight.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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