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FXUS63 KGLD 031152 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 552 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms will develop along a cold front surging southeastward through the area late this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and instances of large hail appear to be the primary hazards. Isolated supercells capable of producing all hazards may develop in advance of the front, south of Highway 40 in CO/KS, between 4-8 pm MDT.

- Fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday for most of the Tri-State area, but favor along and south of I-70.

- Thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to possibly severe, will be possible Monday afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Overview: An upper level low centered invof the Saskatchewan- Manitoba-North Dakota border this morning will slowly progress northeastward across central Manitoba/Ontario (today-tonight)
and northward into Hudson Bay (Sat-Sat night).

Today-Tonight: Shortwave energy presently centered invof southern Idaho will track eastward across southern Wyoming today (rounding the base of the aforementioned upper low and broad upper trough over the Northern Plains).. then lift northeastward across South Dakota and Minnesota (tonight). A low-level southerly return flow regime will be re-established in the lee of the Colorado Front Range today.. as the MSLP-H85 height gradient re-orients and tightens in response to the development of a modest lee cyclone in Colorado (aided by the aforesaid shortwave energy /DPVA/ approaching from the west).
Strengthening southerly flow will advect seasonably rich low- level moisture (4-9C 850 mb dewpoints) beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer (8-9 C/km H7-H5 lapse rates) in place over eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas.. yielding 500 J/kg (Colorado) to 1500 J/kg (western Kansas) MLCAPE at peak heating. Guidance indicates that an evaporatively-cooled airmass /effective cold front/ emanating from fairly widespread precipitation over portions of Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle will surge southeastward through northeast Colorado late this afternoon (~00Z) and northwest Kansas by ~03-04Z this evening.

Simulated reflectivity forecasts via recent runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST indicate that convection will [1] rapidly develop along the effective cold front in northeast CO late this afternoon and [2] increase in coverage along the front as it progresses into an increasingly unstable airmass (with southern and eastern extent) this evening.. where damaging winds and a few instances of large hail are anticipated to be the primary convective hazards.

However, guidance also suggests that isolated convection..
possibly discrete supercells.. will develop in advance of the front along the Arkansas River Valley in southeast Colorado (Bent-Prowers-Kiowa counties) ~22Z, progressing eastward into western Kansas ~23-02Z. *If* discrete supercells develop, all convective hazards are on the table.. mainly in the 23-02Z time frame.. before said updrafts are consumed/cannibalized by the southeastward advancing cold front.

Sat-Sat night: Benign weather and cooler temperatures will follow, on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 243 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

For the long term period, active weather is possible Monday with generally average temperatures and daily precipitation chances through the week.

Sunday is forecast to have an upper low/trough push into the Western CONUS and move towards the Four Corners region.
Meanwhile, moisture is forecast to stream in from the south near the surface as a surface low develops along the Front Range while additional moisture moves in over the mountains. This could lead to a fairly cloudy day where temperatures will cap in the 60's, though any area with sun for a couple of hours should reach the 70's, especially near and west of the Colorado border. Showers and a few storms could develop with all the moisture in the area, but the severe threat should be near zero with instability still forecast to be fairly low with MUCAPE generally near or less than 500 J/KG.

Sunday night through Monday is when conditions are forecast to get more interesting as the upper low moves near and over the area along with the surface low. One the first things to watch will be the winds. With the speed of the upper trough and how deep it could get, the pressure gradient and height gradients could get fairly strong and allow winds to exceed 30 mph and gusts exceed 55 mph starting as soon as Sunday evening. However, confidence is currently only around 40% as ensembles show a fairly high spread in 500mb tracks and progression. This in turn also affects the surface low and it's progression. One of the main things that could keep the winds on the lower side is that some of the ensembles are pulling the trough north. This would shift the stronger gradients more towards Nebraska and the Dakotas. Our winds would still strengthen above 20 mph with gusts above 35 mph, but high wind criteria warnings would become unlikely. The chances for the high winds then increase the further south the track of the main surface low goes (farthest south looks to be around the Southern KS border). In either scenario, low temperatures Sunday night will likely stay in the 50's with the moisture, cloud cover, and increased winds over the area.

For Monday, conditions are fairly variable given the surface low has solutions with tracks that go through the area during the day or hug the KS/CO border along with tracks that are north of the area and south of the area (I am referring to the deepest part of the surface low). In scenarios where the low moves through the area and is to the east during the day, moisture would lower across the area, increasing critical fire weather chances and lowering storm and severe storm potential.
In solutions where the low and front stay over or near the area, critical fire weather conditions become less likely while storm and severe storm chances increase. Winds approaching high wind warning criteria become more likely as well. Would could be of particular concern is if the low is south of the area and the warm front is draped across the area. We then begin to face scenarios similar to recent events with a warm front and a dryline/cold front acting as storm genesis points. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60's behind the system and in the 70's and maybe low 80's ahead of the system. Monday night remains just as varied with conditions ranging from calming and dry, to stormy with high winds. Currently, don't have a good inclination towards any one scenario so have gone with a more neutral forecast and am waiting for better consensus in guidance and maybe better sampling of the system (since it is still offshore).

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be more "average day" with near average temperatures in the 60's and 70's and some small chances for precipitation as the upper pattern is forecast to turn more to a broad trough with the initial disturbance pushing east while the trough as a whole spins over the Northern Plains. Will need to watch for critical conditions south of I-70 with the drier air over the area dropping RH into the teens.

For the end of the work week, currently forecasting near average conditions in a broad trough pattern. Guidance is split on whether the upper trough just pushes off to the east or if a small low splits off and retrogrades west. In either case, there is the possibility of another front if the trough is strong enough as it pushes off to the east, though there may not be much moisture available for storms to work with.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 550 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the majority of the day. Sub-VFR conditions associated with thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening.. in the 00-06Z time frame. Expect a clearing trend overnight, with VFR conditions returning by or near the end of the 12Z TAF period. South winds at 10-15 knots will increase to 20-30 knots late this morning (~15Z at GLD, ~17Z at MCK) and persist through the afternoon.
Winds will abruptly shift to the N at 20-35 knots ~00-02Z.. as a cold front surges southeastward through the region. Locally enhanced/stronger winds are possible in vicinity of any thunderstorms. Breezy N winds will persist through the evening, decreasing to 10-15 knots late tonight (06-12Z Sat).. by the end of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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