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FXUS63 KGLD 030848 AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 248 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front late Friday afternoon and Friday evening will result in a line of thunderstorms moving through the area with a marginal risk of severe storms. The main hazards will be potentially widespread strong winds along and behind the front as well as blowing dust. There are lower risks for hail and perhaps a brief tornado along the front.

- Fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday for most of the Tri-State area, but favor along and south of I-70.

- Thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to possibly severe, will be possible Monday afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

Surface high pressure in control today with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph in the early afternoon and continuing to slowly diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes. Tonight, a weak shortwave trough moving out of Colorado may produce a few isolated light rain showers, mainly in Colorado. Mean QPF amounts are a few hundredths of an inch across northwest Yuma County, less elsewhere. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday will be mostly sunny and dry in the morning then increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in western areas during the afternoon. Shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will send a cold front racing down the plains in the late afternoon hours and through the evening.
Models suggest a line of thunderstorms will develop along the front. Instability is fairly limited, topping out around 500-800 j/kg, but deep layer shear remains strong at around 50 kts.
While can't discount a low end risk for hail or even a brief tornado with the sharp frontal boundary, main hazards Friday evening will be strong winds and perhaps blowing dust. Low level lapse rates are not particularly favorable behind the front, but there is a narrow corridor of more favorable rates just ahead of it. Rainfall last night in many areas will be working against the blowing dust potential. Given all the variables confidence in blowing dust is medium at best, but confidence in wind is high. HRRR probabilities show about 20-30% of members with gusts of over 50 mph centered around 03z with the front. Some local gusts could be higher with convective enhancement. The line of storms should be moving out of the western counties by 06z and eastern counties by 09z. HRRR mean precipitation amounts are generally around a quarter to a half an inch, with 90th percentile amounts of up to 1". Low temperatures will range from the lower 30s in northeast Colorado to the middle 40s in north central Kansas.

Saturday will be mostly sunny and dry during the day with highs in the low to mid 60s. Flow aloft will transition to southwest ahead of a system entering the Pacific coast, with northeast to easterly winds at the surface. A shortwave trough coming out of New Mexico ahead of the system will bring a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to areas south of Interstate 70 Saturday night. SBCAPE and MUCAPE are more or less zero with weak shear, so no severe storms are expected. 12-hour mean precipitation amounts are less than a tenth of an inch by early Sunday morning. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.

Southwest flow continues on Sunday with possible weak embedded waves. At the surface will see increasing southeast winds, breezy to windy by the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies. Might see a few scattered light showers through the day, but best chances will be in the morning with any lingering showers from Saturday night. There is some minimal SBCAPE available in the afternoon (100-200 j/kg) so an isolated thunderstorm is possible, but severe storms not expected. High temperatures optimistically forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but would not be surprised if they were a bit cooler. The low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into Sunday night as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the main trough axis approaching the central Rockies by that time. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 243 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

For the long term period, active weather is possible Monday with generally average temperatures and daily precipitation chances through the week.

Sunday is forecast to have an upper low/trough push into the Western CONUS and move towards the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, moisture is forecast to stream in from the south near the surface as a surface low develops along the Front Range while additional moisture moves in over the mountains. This could lead to a fairly cloudy day where temperatures will cap in the 60's, though any area with sun for a couple of hours should reach the 70's, especially near and west of the Colorado border. Showers and a few storms could develop with all the moisture in the area, but the severe threat should be near zero with instability still forecast to be fairly low with MUCAPE generally near or less than 500 J/KG.

Sunday night through Monday is when conditions are forecast to get more interesting as the upper low moves near and over the area along with the surface low. One the first things to watch will be the winds. With the speed of the upper trough and how deep it could get, the pressure gradient and height gradients could get fairly strong and allow winds to exceed 30 mph and gusts exceed 55 mph starting as soon as Sunday evening. However, confidence is currently only around 40% as ensembles show a fairly high spread in 500mb tracks and progression. This in turn also affects the surface low and it's progression. One of the main things that could keep the winds on the lower side is that some of the ensembles are pulling the trough north. This would shift the stronger gradients more towards Nebraska and the Dakotas. Our winds would still strengthen above 20 mph with gusts above 35 mph, but high wind criteria warnings would become unlikely. The chances for the high winds then increase the further south the track of the main surface low goes (farthest south looks to be around the Southern KS border). In either scenario, low temperatures Sunday night will likely stay in the 50's with the moisture, cloud cover, and increased winds over the area.

For Monday, conditions are fairly variable given the surface low has solutions with tracks that go through the area during the day or hug the KS/CO border along with tracks that are north of the area and south of the area (I am referring to the deepest part of the surface low). In scenarios where the low moves through the area and is to the east during the day, moisture would lower across the area, increasing critical fire weather chances and lowering storm and severe storm potential. In solutions where the low and front stay over or near the area, critical fire weather conditions become less likely while storm and severe storm chances increase. Winds approaching high wind warning criteria become more likely as well.
Would could be of particular concern is if the low is south of the area and the warm front is draped across the area. We then begin to face scenarios similar to recent events with a warm front and a dryline/cold front acting as storm genesis points. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60's behind the system and in the 70's and maybe low 80's ahead of the system. Monday night remains just as varied with conditions ranging from calming and dry, to stormy with high winds. Currently, don't have a good inclination towards any one scenario so have gone with a more neutral forecast and am waiting for better consensus in guidance and maybe better sampling of the system (since it is still offshore).

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be more "average day" with near average temperatures in the 60's and 70's and some small chances for precipitation as the upper pattern is forecast to turn more to a broad trough with the initial disturbance pushing east while the trough as a whole spins over the Northern Plains. Will need to watch for critical conditions south of I-70 with the drier air over the area dropping RH into the teens.

For the end of the work week, currently forecasting near average conditions in a broad trough pattern. Guidance is split on whether the upper trough just pushes off to the east or if a small low splits off and retrogrades west. In either case, there is the possibility of another front if the trough is strong enough as it pushes off to the east, though there may not be much moisture available for storms to work with.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through about 01z. A southeast wind under 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the south at similar speeds by 12z. From 13z-00z, southerly winds gusting up to 40kts are expected. After 01z, sub VFR cigs and vis are anticipated as showers and thunderstorms move through, associated with a cold front. Northerly winds gusting up to 40kts or so are expected both due to the strong 3 hour pressure rises behind the front and from the expected convection. Gusts could be higher.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through about 01z. A light and variable wind is expected from taf issuance through 13z.
From 14z-00z, southerly winds gusting up to 35kts are expected.
After 01z, winds shift to the north, gusting up to 40kts as a cold front and strong 3 hour pressure rises move through. Sub VFR cigs and vis are anticipated due to showers and thunderstorms moving through.

GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

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