Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 3:11 AM   Moonset 2:28 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS63 KICT 030647 AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 147 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms likely tonight into early Saturday with some strong to severe storms possible tonight, especially across portions of central KS.

- Showers and a few storms return late Saturday night into early Sunday across southern and southeast KS.

- Increasing threat of severe weather on Monday evening and Monday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP analysis continue to show a robust mid/upper trough along the Canadian border over the Northern Plains/Saskatchewan-Manitoba region moving northeastward while another progressive shortwave trough was digging across the Northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a cold front was draped over the Middle Mississippi Valley area and points southwestward into the Southern Plains.

A stable post-frontal regime is firmly entrenched across the forecast area today leading to quite weather conditions for the daytime hours. Seasonably mild conditions are anticipated with relatively light winds and highs in the 70s.

For tonight, the shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies will sweep eastward driving another cold front southward across the Central Plains. This front will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms tonight. Elevated CAPE and steep mid-lvl lapse rates should support some strong to severe storms, especially across our central KS counties this evening where damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible. Uncertainty grows further south and east as we move through the overnight hours with waning elevated CAPE and a weakening LLJ progged.

Some remnant shower and storm activity could linger early in the day on Saturday across southern KS but the focus is expected to shift south and east of the area on Saturday afternoon as a stable post- frontal regime materializes across the area. Seasonably cool temperatures are anticipated with highs ranging from the mid 60s in central KS to the lower 70s in southeast KS. Another shortwave trough lifting out of the Southern Rockies and over the Southern Plains could bring an increasing chance for showers and storms late Saturday night into Sunday morning but there remains some uncertainty in how far north it will track with higher probabilities remaining across far southern and southeast KS. The threat for strong or severe storms is expected to remain south of the area with this system but a further north track could result in better moisture return and the potential for more robust deep moist convection.

As we move into early next week, a vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to move into the Rockies before emerging negatively tilted over the Central Plains late on Monday. Conditions continue to look favorable for a more widespread severe weather event on Monday afternoon and Monday evening across the Central Plains. The EPS/GEFS continue to advertise a vigorous upper jet nosing into Kansas late Monday where high quality moisture is progged in the warm sector. It is looking like a synoptically evident event unfolding where significant severe weather may unfold including supercells with very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Tue-Thu...Drier air will overspread the region in the wake of the Pacific front on Tue with dry weather and mild conditions expected with highs in the 80s. Heights/thickness are progged to lower as we move into the middle of the week with a vigorous and slow moving trough progged to camp over the Northern Plains. This is expected to result in mostly dry weather with seasonable temperatures in the 70s for most areas on Wed-Thu.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low clouds will gradually spread northward across southern and southeast Kansas early this morning and linger into the afternoon hours with MVFR cigs expected. Meanwhile a line of showers and storms could move into central Kansas later this evening from western Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Wichita, KS,