Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kit Carson, CO
May 2, 2024 11:38 PM MDT (05:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:57 AM Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 2:58 AM Moonset 1:31 PM |
Area Discussion for - Goodland, KS
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FXUS63 KGLD 030405 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1005 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cold front late Friday afternoon and Friday evening will result in a line of thunderstorms moving through the area with a marginal risk of severe storms. The main hazards will be potentially widespread strong winds along and behind the front as well as blowing dust. There are lower risks for hail and perhaps a brief tornado along the front.
- Fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday for various parts of the forecast area.
- Thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to possibly severe, will be possible Monday afternoon/evening.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Surface high pressure in control today with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph in the early afternoon and continuing to slowly diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes. Tonight, a weak shortwave trough moving out of Colorado may produce a few isolated light rain showers, mainly in Colorado. Mean QPF amounts are a few hundredths of an inch across northwest Yuma County, less elsewhere. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Friday will be mostly sunny and dry in the morning then increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in western areas during the afternoon. Shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will send a cold front racing down the plains in the late afternoon hours and through the evening.
Models suggest a line of thunderstorms will develop along the front. Instability is fairly limited, topping out around 500-800 j/kg, but deep layer shear remains strong at around 50 kts.
While can't discount a low end risk for hail or even a brief tornado with the sharp frontal boundary, main hazards Friday evening will be strong winds and perhaps blowing dust. Low level lapse rates are not particularly favorable behind the front, but there is a narrow corridor of more favorable rates just ahead of it. Rainfall last night in many areas will be working against the blowing dust potential. Given all the variables confidence in blowing dust is medium at best, but confidence in wind is high. HRRR probabilities show about 20-30% of members with gusts of over 50 mph centered around 03z with the front. Some local gusts could be higher with convective enhancement. The line of storms should be moving out of the western counties by 06z and eastern counties by 09z. HRRR mean precipitation amounts are generally around a quarter to a half an inch, with 90th percentile amounts of up to 1". Low temperatures will range from the lower 30s in northeast Colorado to the middle 40s in north central Kansas.
Saturday will be mostly sunny and dry during the day with highs in the low to mid 60s. Flow aloft will transition to southwest ahead of a system entering the Pacific coast, with northeast to easterly winds at the surface. A shortwave trough coming out of New Mexico ahead of the system will bring a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to areas south of Interstate 70 Saturday night. SBCAPE and MUCAPE are more or less zero with weak shear, so no severe storms are expected. 12-hour mean precipitation amounts are less than a tenth of an inch by early Sunday morning. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.
Southwest flow continues on Sunday with possible weak embedded waves. At the surface will see increasing southeast winds, breezy to windy by the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies. Might see a few scattered light showers through the day, but best chances will be in the morning with any lingering showers from Saturday night. There is some minimal SBCAPE available in the afternoon (100-200 j/kg) so an isolated thunderstorm is possible, but severe storms not expected. High temperatures optimistically forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but would not be surprised if they were a bit cooler. The low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into Sunday night as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the main trough axis approaching the central Rockies by that time. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
The forecast period starts out with southwest flow over the Tri- State area Monday morning. An upper trough will be centered due north of the Four Corners region. Models have come into less agreement from yesterday over the potential track of our next storm system through the day on Monday. The GFS now brings the track further south into northwestern Kansas and extreme southwestern Nebraska, before bringing it north into Nebraska and central South Dakota. The ECMWF brings the system northeast across the Bighorn Mountains (Wyoming) and into the West River region of the Dakotas. A dryline is expected to move across the CWA during the daytime hours on Monday. Right now, there is not a lot of CAPE (SB <1000 J/kg) to work with as the system comes through, but will want to continue to monitor things over the next few days as we get closer to the event and things come into a little better focus. Monday afternoon, there is a chance for some fire weather concerns across the southwestern portion of the area.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to fall into the teens with wind gusts above the 25 MPH threshold.
Tuesday and Wednesday, a broad upper trough moves into the Tri-State region, putting us under southwest flow. Expect high temperatures to be primarily in the 70s, although a few 60s cannot be entirely ruled out in eastern Colorado. Tuesday afternoon, there will be a chance for some fire weather conditions, primarily in the southwestern portion of the area. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the teens and wind gusts are expected to reach 25 MPH in areas.
Thursday brings a pattern transition as the trough progresses eastward and we come under northerly to northwest flow.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through about 01z. A southeast wind under 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the south at similar speeds by 12z. From 13z-00z, southerly winds gusting up to 40kts are expected. After 01z, sub VFR cigs and vis are anticipated as showers and thunderstorms move through, associated with a cold front. Northerly winds gusting up to 40kts or so are expected both due to the strong 3 hour pressure rises behind the front and from the expected convection. Gusts could be higher.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through about 01z. A light and variable wind is expected from taf issuance through 13z.
From 14z-00z, southerly winds gusting up to 35kts are expected.
After 01z, winds shift to the north, gusting up to 40kts as a cold front and strong 3 hour pressure rises move through. Sub VFR cigs and vis are anticipated due to showers and thunderstorms moving through.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1005 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cold front late Friday afternoon and Friday evening will result in a line of thunderstorms moving through the area with a marginal risk of severe storms. The main hazards will be potentially widespread strong winds along and behind the front as well as blowing dust. There are lower risks for hail and perhaps a brief tornado along the front.
- Fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday for various parts of the forecast area.
- Thunderstorms, a few of which may become strong to possibly severe, will be possible Monday afternoon/evening.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Surface high pressure in control today with northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph in the early afternoon and continuing to slowly diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes. Tonight, a weak shortwave trough moving out of Colorado may produce a few isolated light rain showers, mainly in Colorado. Mean QPF amounts are a few hundredths of an inch across northwest Yuma County, less elsewhere. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Friday will be mostly sunny and dry in the morning then increasing clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in western areas during the afternoon. Shortwave trough moving through the northern plains will send a cold front racing down the plains in the late afternoon hours and through the evening.
Models suggest a line of thunderstorms will develop along the front. Instability is fairly limited, topping out around 500-800 j/kg, but deep layer shear remains strong at around 50 kts.
While can't discount a low end risk for hail or even a brief tornado with the sharp frontal boundary, main hazards Friday evening will be strong winds and perhaps blowing dust. Low level lapse rates are not particularly favorable behind the front, but there is a narrow corridor of more favorable rates just ahead of it. Rainfall last night in many areas will be working against the blowing dust potential. Given all the variables confidence in blowing dust is medium at best, but confidence in wind is high. HRRR probabilities show about 20-30% of members with gusts of over 50 mph centered around 03z with the front. Some local gusts could be higher with convective enhancement. The line of storms should be moving out of the western counties by 06z and eastern counties by 09z. HRRR mean precipitation amounts are generally around a quarter to a half an inch, with 90th percentile amounts of up to 1". Low temperatures will range from the lower 30s in northeast Colorado to the middle 40s in north central Kansas.
Saturday will be mostly sunny and dry during the day with highs in the low to mid 60s. Flow aloft will transition to southwest ahead of a system entering the Pacific coast, with northeast to easterly winds at the surface. A shortwave trough coming out of New Mexico ahead of the system will bring a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to areas south of Interstate 70 Saturday night. SBCAPE and MUCAPE are more or less zero with weak shear, so no severe storms are expected. 12-hour mean precipitation amounts are less than a tenth of an inch by early Sunday morning. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 40s.
Southwest flow continues on Sunday with possible weak embedded waves. At the surface will see increasing southeast winds, breezy to windy by the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies. Might see a few scattered light showers through the day, but best chances will be in the morning with any lingering showers from Saturday night. There is some minimal SBCAPE available in the afternoon (100-200 j/kg) so an isolated thunderstorm is possible, but severe storms not expected. High temperatures optimistically forecast to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but would not be surprised if they were a bit cooler. The low chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into Sunday night as upper heights continue to fall ahead of the main trough axis approaching the central Rockies by that time. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 207 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
The forecast period starts out with southwest flow over the Tri- State area Monday morning. An upper trough will be centered due north of the Four Corners region. Models have come into less agreement from yesterday over the potential track of our next storm system through the day on Monday. The GFS now brings the track further south into northwestern Kansas and extreme southwestern Nebraska, before bringing it north into Nebraska and central South Dakota. The ECMWF brings the system northeast across the Bighorn Mountains (Wyoming) and into the West River region of the Dakotas. A dryline is expected to move across the CWA during the daytime hours on Monday. Right now, there is not a lot of CAPE (SB <1000 J/kg) to work with as the system comes through, but will want to continue to monitor things over the next few days as we get closer to the event and things come into a little better focus. Monday afternoon, there is a chance for some fire weather concerns across the southwestern portion of the area.
Minimum relative humidity values are expected to fall into the teens with wind gusts above the 25 MPH threshold.
Tuesday and Wednesday, a broad upper trough moves into the Tri-State region, putting us under southwest flow. Expect high temperatures to be primarily in the 70s, although a few 60s cannot be entirely ruled out in eastern Colorado. Tuesday afternoon, there will be a chance for some fire weather conditions, primarily in the southwestern portion of the area. Minimum relative humidity values will fall into the teens and wind gusts are expected to reach 25 MPH in areas.
Thursday brings a pattern transition as the trough progresses eastward and we come under northerly to northwest flow.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through about 01z. A southeast wind under 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the south at similar speeds by 12z. From 13z-00z, southerly winds gusting up to 40kts are expected. After 01z, sub VFR cigs and vis are anticipated as showers and thunderstorms move through, associated with a cold front. Northerly winds gusting up to 40kts or so are expected both due to the strong 3 hour pressure rises behind the front and from the expected convection. Gusts could be higher.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through about 01z. A light and variable wind is expected from taf issuance through 13z.
From 14z-00z, southerly winds gusting up to 35kts are expected.
After 01z, winds shift to the north, gusting up to 40kts as a cold front and strong 3 hour pressure rises move through. Sub VFR cigs and vis are anticipated due to showers and thunderstorms moving through.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
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Goodland, KS,
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