Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Solomons, MD

KEY MESSAGES
1) Near record temps today.

2) A strong cold front will move through on Sun, bringing rainfall and perhaps a chance for a t-storm. Much cooler air moves in behind the front on Mon.

3) Cooler temps expected next week along with surface high pres building over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near record temps are expected today.

Temps have soared into the upper 70s to mid 80s this aftn.
Another couple ticks upward on the thermometer are possible this aftn, which will allow for Max Temps for today to be broken or tied at many climate sites.

Latest guidance has trended downward in terms of coverage of showers or a rogue t-storm across the NW FA this aftn/eve. If anything were to develop, likely this eve across the eastern WV Panhandle, N'rn Shenandoah Valley, or western MD.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold front will move through on Sun, bringing rainfall and perhaps a chance for a t-storm. Much cooler air moves in behind the front on Mon.

A strong cold front will pass through the FA during the morn to early aftn hours tmrw. Still favoring a couple hour long period of steady rain with FROPA. Overall rainfall looks to be around a quarter to half an inch, with a localized min in the downsloping areas just east of the Alleghenies.

The frontal passage will be unfavorably timed for much instby to develop out ahead of it, but some weak instby may build along and SE of I-95. Cannot rule out a few t-storms along the front as it moves through these areas early tmrw aftn. With a strong wind field in place aloft, any storms that do form could conditionally pose a threat for some damaging winds.

Winds will shift to out of the NW behind the front, and skies will gradually clear out from NW to SE late tmrw aftn into tmrw eve. Much cooler air will filter into the region behind the front Sun night, with temps dropping back into the 30s and lower 40s. Mostly sunny skies are forecast for Mon, along with a w'ly breeze and high temps ranging from the upper 40s in the mtns to the mid 60s across Central VA. Most locales are expected to see highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Surface high pres builds over the Mid- Atlantic through midweek with cooler temps expected.

Canadian high pres moves overhead through midweek, bringing cooler temps to the FA. Tue will be the coolest day of the long term period with highs ranging from low 40s in the Alleghenies to low 60s in central Virginia.

Zonal flow takes over in the upper level flow for the next several days, allowing for a potential multi-day period of persistent high pres, lighter winds, and little to no rain in the forecast through the end of next week. This will also allow cooler temps brought on by Sun's cold front to potentially persist throughout the week, with highs on Wed forecasted to range from the mid-40s over the Alleghenies to the mid-50s in central VA. WAA from the south could start to bring a gradual increase in the daily highs by late next week, but model guidance on the upper-level pattern flow starts to vary quite a bit by Thu's timeframe. Expect some variability in the long-term forecast in the short term as model guidance continues to agree on the frontal movement towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions prevail through tonight. Winds pick up out of the south through the eve. Gusts of 20-25 knots may be possible late tonight into tmrw morn. LLWS may also be possible for a few hours tonight at BWI and MTN, but isn't expected elsewhere.

Sub-VFR ceilings and rain are expected at all terminals tmrw morn as a cold front moves through the area. There's a very small chance that a t-storm or two could form along the front as it moves through late Sun morn into early Sun aftn. Winds shift to NW'ly behind the front Sun aftn and conditions improve back to VFR.

West to northwest winds winds are expected across all terminals Mon and continuing into Tue. Winds Tue aftn will gust to 20-25 kts.

High pres moves in on Wed, bringing an overall decrease in winds to 5-10 knots; gusts up to 15 knots are possible. N'ly winds shift SE'ly at airfields by Wed aftn. Winds may increase slightly on Thu with an incoming surface gradient, but still remain primarily southerly in the 5-10 knot range, with gusts between 15-20 knots expected across terminals.

MARINE
SCAs remain in effect for all waters late this aftn through Sun morn within southerly flow. A cold front will move over the waters early tmrw aftn. Showers and a few t-storms may accompany the front, and SMWs may potentially be needed if any stronger storms were to form. Winds shift to out of the northwest behind the front later tmrw aftn, and could reach low- end SCA levels at times tmrw eve into tmrw night. Sub-SCA level westerly winds are expected on Mon.

SCAs are likely on Tue as northwest winds gust around 20 knots through the aftn. Winds diminish overnight, although advisories may be needed in the srn portions of the bay as gusts between 15 and 20 kts continue through Wed morn. As surface high pres builds over the area, winds diminish across all waters and are expected to stay below SCA on Wed.

NE winds may continue to gust 15-20 kts in the srn portions of the Chesapeake Bay through Wed morn, eventually decreasing to sub-SCA levels by the aftn. High pres moves over the waters during this time, shifting winds east/southeast by Thu morn.
Sub-SCA level SE'ly winds are expected on Thu.

CLIMATE
Temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above average are forecast for today. Below is a list of record daily temps for our regional climate sites.

Record Daily High and Warm Lows for April 4 Site High/Year(s) Set Warm Low/Year(s) Set DCA 85/2011 66/1981 BWI 86/2011 63/1892 IAD 85/2011 63/1981 DMH 87/2011 66/2025 NAK 83/2011 60/2025 HGR 81/2011 60/1974 MRB 85/2011 63/1981 CHO 88/2011 64/1974

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sun for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sun for ANZ530>543.