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FXUS63 KDDC 022303 AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 603 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorm complex is expected Friday night, favoring the northeast half of our area.

- Strong weather system early next week will likely only bring precipitation to the far northeast/eastern zones Monday, while all other zones are dry-slotted.

- Generally quiet weather Tuesday/Wednesday with above normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal broad, longwave troughing is in place west of the Mississippi River, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, and longwave ridging to the east. At the surface, observations show strong northerly winds across southwest KS behind last night's cold front. These winds are drawing much cooler air equatorward this afternoon, resulting in highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, winds will weaken substantially as surface high pressure moves into the central plains, and combine with partly cloudy skies to support at least modest radiational cooling fostering lows dropping into the 40s.

Daytime Friday, short range guidance agrees an upper level shortwave trough will dig east-southeast from the northern Intermountain West into the north-central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, a surface lee cyclone will develop and deepen over eastern CO, causing south to southeasterly winds to increase over southwest KS in response. However, any warming effect these winds have will be somewhat offset by at least partly cloudy skies, and afternoon temperatures will only be marginally warmer than today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles agree the above mentioned shortwave trough will continue east to the northern plains, sending a cold front southward through our area. There is strong ensemble support for this frontal passage being accompanied by an MCS, with the ECMWF EPS and GEFS both show probability of QPF > 0.1" in the 50-80% range for at least the northeast half to 2/3rds of our area. Additionally, this MCS may be marginally severe given 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear, although meager instability (CAPE < 600 J/Kg) should limit severe coverage.

Over the weekend, medium range ensembles show a powerful upper low moving onto the western coast and into the Intermountain West by 00Z Monday. A few weak, lead shortwaves may eject out of the Desert Southwest into the central plains bringing a chance for precipitation across our area, but confidence is not high, and pops were limited to the slight chance (15-24%) to chance (25-54%) categories. Otherwise, temperatures will hover around normal (low-mid 70s) with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Saturday to the low to mid 70s Sunday.

Early next week, ensembles eject the significant, negatively- tilted upper level trough onto the High Plains daytime Monday.
The timing/location of this trough by 00Z Tuesday suggests southwest KS will be mostly dry-slotted by this wave, with strong westerly winds, warm temperatures, and fire weather prevailing. That said, the far northeast/east zones may get lucky with some afternoon showers/thunderstorms, but confidence is not super high as ECMWF EPS and GEFS probability of QPF > 0.1" is only in the 20-40% range. Once this wave passes, the remainder of the long term period appears quiet as ensembles show southwest KS will sit on the southern periphery of longwave troughing centered over the northern plains. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds will increase after 16z to sustained 15-20 kts with gusts in the 25-30 kt range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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