Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Gate, CA

SHORT TERM
Issued at 104 PM PST Mon Dec 15 2025 (This evening through Tuesday)

Interesting setup this afternoon weather wise. No real change for the Central Valley or interior East Bay as they still deal with Tule Fog impacts. North Bay, SF Bay, and the South Bay on the other hand are seeing a welcomed sight, the sun. Some of these locales struggled to see the sun over the weekend keeping them chilly. That being said, even with some sunshine this afternoon it's late in the day and not much daytime heating left. Therefore undershot the forecast from the NBM today for most of the Bay Area, especially the interior East Bay. Central Coast will be the warmest of the bunch with a few spots aiming for the lower 70s.

So why the change? Lingering offshore flow over the North and East Bay combined with a weak system approaching from the north.
Latest surface analysis shows a weak cold front off the far NorCal coast moving S and E. In fact, KMUX radar was switched to precip for the first time in a long time. A few scout showers ahead of the front are being picked off the North Bay coast this afternoon.

For tonight: do have showers returning to the North Bay overnight. Not expecting a big precip event tonight, but more of a brush by from a passing boundary. Current forecast doesn't have precip south of the Golden Gate. If we do actually get some bucket tips from rain this will be the first precip of the month for the region. In other words, it's been dry lately. One impact that won't go away tonight will be low clouds and fog, especially East Bay and West Delta. Given the approaching front and increased cloud cover not expecting widespread dense fog like this morning, but patchy dense fog is more likely.

For Tuesday; Showers finally make it south of the Golden Gate by the afternoon with minor impacts to the evening commute. Once again, not expecting a wash out, but beneficial precip nonetheless.

LONG TERM
Issued at 202 PM PST Mon Dec 15 2025 (Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Showers will linger through Wednesday as the weak boundary traverses the region. Showers will be most prevalent across the North Bay. Rainfall amounts with this first push of precip will generally be a tenth to a half for the North Bay and a few hundredths elsewhere. Interior areas of the Central Coast will likely not see any precip with this system.

We'll get a brief pause/break in widespread precip late Wednesday evening and Thursday before the atmosphere reloads with another system. If there are a few lingering showers they'll be across the North Bay.

The atmospheric "reload" will come in the way of a low spinning up over the Pacific north of HI and another storm system swinging into the PacNW. This set up will allow for a moisture plume to take aim at the PacNW before sliding down the NorCal coast on Friday. Widespread rain returns initially to the North Bay Friday afternoon before pushing south to the Central Coast on Saturday.

By Sunday the newly formed low over the Pacific will move toward the NorCal, which will bring a reinforcing shot of higher PWAT air to the region. As a result, expect another uptick in rain shower activity, coverage, and intensity. This push of moisture will keep precip in the picture Monday and even into Tuesday. A great way to describe the overall weather starting Friday through early next week will be episodes or periods of rain. Not a complete washout, but measurable rain. Initial rainfall projections Thursday through Monday: North Bay and Coastal Mts 2-5", Bay Area and Monterey Bay Region 1-2", Interior Central Coast less than 1". Period of heaviest rainfall looks to be Sunday into Monday.

Lots of focus for the extended, and rightfully so as holiday travel and holiday plans come into play. Confidence continues to increase that impactful weather will return to the region beginning around Dec 22 and continuing through the holiday. CPC continues to highlight a large portion of NorCal for excessive rainfall. Longer range ensembles show potential as well, but this far out it's all about the details - amounts, confidence, timing, impacts. Those will be sorted out in the days to come.
Please check back for updates and more details.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 PM PST Mon Dec 15 2025

Fog and stratus have dissipated across most of the Bay Area with the only regions remaining socked in being the far inland locations lying within the Central Valley east of CCR, LVK, and the Diablo Range. Mid- to high-level clouds are filtering into the region in advance of a system that will bring chances for light showers tonight into Tuesday for the North Bay. Have opted to maintain the previous forecast for widespread stratus with some coastal and valley fog developing tonight, but with the incoming system bringing extensive cloud cover, low confidence in the clearing times on Tuesday morning, which generally come from a persistence forecast.
Winds will be light and gentle across the region with a slight onshore impulse in the coastal region through the evening hours, otherwise offshore. Light and terrain-driven winds prevail overnight before a light to gentle onshore pulse resumes Tuesday.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR with mid- to high level clouds through the evening. Latest model output depicts MVFR stratus flowing in closer to the 06-07Z timeframe, which fits with the previous TAF forecast.
Low confidence that dense fog directly impacts the terminal, but some reduction in visibility is expected overnight. Afterwards, moderate confidence that the stratus persists through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will remain light to gentle throughout the forecast period, with offshore flows at present turning light and west-northwest by Tuesday. Low to moderate confidence of showers developing at the terminal by Tuesday evening.

SFO Bridge Approach... Localized stratus and potential for dense fog is expected tonight through Tuesday morning across the southern San Francisco Bay. Otherwise, similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR with light to gentle northwest breezes through the early evening hours. Low to moderate confidence that stratus and fog return tonight, with the latest model output showing the stratus deck approaching the coast, but not reaching it until close to the end of the TAF period. Have opted to leave the current forecast in place and base the clearing times on persistence, but will monitor stratus evolution through the evening in case confidence in the return of stratus increases. Light drainage flows overnight before light to gentle northwest winds resume on Tuesday.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM PST Mon Dec 15 2025

Southerly flow will prevail north of Pigeon Point ahead of an approaching frontal system. Moderate to fresh winds continue across the southern waters with periods of moderate winds expected across the northern waters. Patchy dense fog persists within the West Delta, and expands across the Bays and the coastal waters tonight into Tuesday morning. A weak system will bring moderate long period northwest swell Tuesday into the weekend.
Moderate seas return with wave heights building up to 9 feet.
Rain chances increase late tonight and remain elevated through the end of the forecast period.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.