Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kilmarnock, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Another very cold night tonight, though it won't be quite as cold as it was this morning. Winds will continue to be light through the night.

Surface high pressure is nearly over the area this afternoon with mostly sunny skies, temperatures near 30F, and light winds (though it's still a bit gusty at the coast). Afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 30s. Expect another very cold night despite a light SW wind. However, it won't quite be as cold as it was this morning with forecast lows in the upper teens-lower 20s across much of the area. No cold weather headlines will be needed as winds will be light enough to keep apparent temps no lower than ~15F.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through midweek with highs slowly moderating towards the 50s and low 60s through Thursday.

- Widespread showers are expected Thursday night into Friday morning, with a few tenths of an inch of rain expected across much of the area.

- Cooler, breezy, and dry on Friday but certainly not as cold as today.

Dry weather continues through the mid week period. High pressure will get suppressed to the S/SE on Tue/Wed as the flow aloft gradually shifts to the SW. The sfc high then expands and pushes well offshore on Thursday. Meanwhile, strong low pressure at the sfc and aloft tracks well to our north late Thursday-Friday AM, dragging another cold front through the area. Deep layered S-SW flow will allow for a decent amount of moisture return in advance of the front late Thu/Thu night, with PWs briefly increasing to 1-1.3" Thursday night. Showers are possible as early as Thursday aftn/evening, but the best chance for widespread showers is Thursday night-Friday AM along and just ahead of the front. It still appears that much of the area will see 0.2-0.4" of rain from this system based on the latest model/ensemble guidance. Will see temps moderate through the week starting with highs in the 40s on Tues, 50s on Wed, and 50s to low 60s on Thurs. Tues night lows will be in the mid 20s-low 30s, with lows a few degrees warmer for Wed night. Dry, cooler and breezy on Friday behind the front with highs in the upper 40s-mid 50s (though highs could occur during the AM with temps falling a few degrees during the aftn).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Seasonable temps continue on Sat, then potentially mild on Sunday ahead of another cold front.

Mostly dry and seasonable through the weekend and early next week as the flow aloft flattens out. A bit chillier on Saturday with highs in the mid 40s to around 50F. Briefly milder wx is possible on Sunday in advance of another cold front (which will only bring a slight chc of showers). Temps drop back down to near seasonal averages on Monday behind that front. No big storm systems are on the horizon for at least the next week or so.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1215 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions with clear skies outside of high clouds will prevail for the 18z/15 TAF period as high pressure remains nearby. Winds have diminished considerably, but occasional gusts to 15-20 kt are possible near the coast through 20z. Winds become SW at ~5 kt this evening-tonight and the light SW winds will continue on Tuesday.

VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday. The next chance of sub-VFR conditions is Thursday night-Friday AM due to showers ahead of a cold front.

MARINE
As of 205 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect S of Cape Charles through this afternoon for elevated seas.

- Another potent cold front crosses the waters, with another period of elevated winds and seas expected.

High pressure is quickly building into the region this afternoon from the W, yielding diminishing winds and dry/mostly clear weather.
Latest observations depict wind speeds of 10-15 kt, highest across the northern waters where there is still a residual pressure gradient. Seas have also fallen given the decreasing winds, but are still elevated to 4-6 ft offshore of the NC and srn VA waters. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM this afternoon.
Elsewhere, all prior SCAs were expired on time. A weak disturbance and sfc trough slide through later tonight; while a few gusts to 20 kt are possible as winds shift to the SW, am not confident enough for frequent >20 kt gusts on the Chesapeake Bay to raise additional SCAs at this time. Our local wind probabilities max out at ~50% for SCA conditions, but only in the nrn bay zone N of Windmill Pt. This wind increase will be brief, with winds again turning light for the remainder of Tuesday. Another similar increase in SW winds is possible early Wednesday morning ahead of a dry cold front passage, but this is also looking primarily sub-SCA.

A stronger cold front approaches the waters Thursday as high pressure anchors well offshore. S-SW winds become gusty to 25-30 kt Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of the front. While some guidance suggests some low-end Gale potential, now-chilly water temperatures will likely prevent efficient mixing of higher winds aloft to the water surface. The current model consensus pushes the front through around sunrise Friday morning, with a wind shift to the WNW expected post-frontal Friday afternoon. Strong SCA to low- end Gale conditions are expected post-frontal, particularly by Friday evening as cold advection maximizes. Seas will also increase to 5-7 ft by Friday morning, with 3-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay. The highest probs for low-end Gales are currently confined to the northern coastal waters. Primarily sub-SCA from later Friday into the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658.