Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:28 AM   Moonset 2:50 PM

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FXUS65 KVEF 030908 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 208 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures are expected through Friday. Over the weekend, a strong system will move through the region bringing widespread strong winds along with much cooler temperatures. Precipitation in the southern Sierra Saturday will spread across parts of southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday Improving conditions are expected early next week with temperatures slowly moderating.

SHORT TERM
Through Sunday night.

Everyone enjoy today, because the weekend will be quite turbulent.

There is a weak shortwave moving through southern Idaho early this morning. Radar is detecting some light showers over northern Utah with lower clouds extending westward through central Nevada, as far as Fallon. In southern Nevada and the Mojave Desert skies are clear with light winds. Skies will stay mostly clear today with afternoon clouds developing over the mountains of Inyo County and central Nevada. Temperatures will top out around 5 degrees above normal.

For the weekend, we are still tracking a potent trough that will drop from the Gulf of Alaska. The trough will move east across northern California and northern Nevada Saturday night through Sunday. Primary impact for the entire region will be the onset of strong south to southwest winds Saturday. Latest guidance suggests the strongest winds through 5 pm Saturday afternoon will likely be occurring in the Spring Mountains, Nye, Esmeralda and Inyo Counties.
Specifically for Inyo County, not seeing a significant downslope signature through 5 pm Saturday but the cross section does indicate strong southerly winds up the Owens Valley. Current hi-res guidance is only going through 5 pm Saturday so its possible those downslope winds may not develop until the evening, coinciding with the trough axis. Best timing for potential high winds greater than 58 mph for southern Nye County, Spring Mountains and Las Vegas Area will be Saturday night into Sunday morning. That period looks to be 8 pm Saturday evening through 8 am Sunday morning. NBM probability for wind gusts >58 mph ranges between 30%-50% from Mountains Edge north to Skye Canyon. Central and eastern parts of the valley mostly 20% or less. Downward trend in the wind speeds will commence Sunday afternoon into the evening. Hi-res guidance is only out through Saturday afternoon but I'd love to see a cross section across the Spring Mountains and the valley through Saturday night. For that reason, kept with the high wind watch which will allow the next shift to hopefully make a more precise decision on which zones need to be included in a warning and which will fall under the wind advisory.

Regarding precipitation. Light showers will begin in the southern Sierra Saturday afternoon then spread east of the Sierra into southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday. Up to 2" forecast for Aspendell in the southern Sierra. Similar amounts possible for the mountains of northern Lincoln County. 0.5" or less for the Spring Mountains and Pioche.

Temperatures will start to cool across the northern areas on Saturday with much cooler conditions areawide on Cinco de Mayo. In fact, forecast high of 67 for Las Vegas Sunday is only two degrees warmer than our low maximum record of 65 set in 1973.

LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday.

As the weekend system moves out, our area will be left under mostly zonal flow with a touch of a NW component. This pattern looks to linger through most, if not all, of the work week as persistent troughing remains just to our north. At the surface, this results in breezy afternoons with highs roughly 3-8 degrees below normal across the area. We'll remain dry as the troughing to our north has very little moisture to work with. PoPs stay below 10% through Thursday.


AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Winds will remain light and will follow typical diurnal directional patterns through early afternoon when winds will pick up and swing to the southwest. These southwesterly winds will persist through tomorrow morning with wind speeds decreasing during the overnight hours before picking back up on Saturday morning. Wind gusts in excess of 35 knots are expected on Saturday and Sunday with a 60% to 70% chance of wind gusts in excess of 45 knots late Saturday evening through early Sunday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...VGT will follow similar trends to LAS with light and diurnal winds picking up and swinging around to the southwest during the afternoon hours. HND will favor a southerly to southwesterly direction through the evening hours with winds picking up slightly during the afternoon hours. Light and variable winds will pick up and swing around to the south later this morning at the Colorado River Valley TAF sites. These southerly winds will continue into the evening hours when EED will become more southwesterly while IFP becomes more southeasterly. DAG will favor a more westerly component with winds decreasing and becoming west-northwesterly this morning before picking back up and shifting to the west-southwest during the afternoon. Light and variable winds will pick up slightly as they swing to the west-southwest later this afternoon at BIH. These west- southwesterly winds will be relatively short-lived as winds are expected to shift to the northwest a few hours later during the evening hours.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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