Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Urbanna, VA
May 3, 2024 10:19 AM EDT (14:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:09 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM Moonset 1:57 PM |
ANZ635 Rappahannock River From Urbanna To Windmill Point- 1002 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of today - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Mon - SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1002 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a backdoor cold front drops through the local waters today, and stalls over the carolinas tonight and Saturday. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.
a backdoor cold front drops through the local waters today, and stalls over the carolinas tonight and Saturday. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 031050 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 650 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes across the area today, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return thus evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...
Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure still anchored over the Atlantic off the coast of the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front is located just to the north of the local area. Aloft, an amplified ridge extends into Canada with its axis just to the west of the FA. Temps this morning will be fairly mild with temps remaining in the 60s for most places (upper 50s in the NW). The backdoor front will sag south today, creating non-diurnal temps that will have a sharp gradient from NE to SW. For most locations W of the bay, expect temps to quickly warm into the low 80s by mid- morning, while the Northern Neck and the Eastern Shore remain cool in the upper 50s-low 60s. Through the afternoon, cooler temps will spread inland. Mid-afternoon temps will be in the 50s on the Eastern Shore, 60s across the peninsulas and the SE coast, while the central and southern piedmont will be in the mid-upper 80s. Clouds will increase through the day, becoming broken to overcast by the afternoon. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and become breezy, gusting to 20-25mph. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms in the piedmont this afternoon, but CAMs indicate isolated coverage. Showers likely increase in coverage late in the evening and overnight, but still look limited to the piedmont and still scattered (40-50% PoPs). Lows tonight/tomorrow morning will be a bit cooler than this morning, dropping into the 50s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler temps and low clouds expected Saturday
- Intermittent precip expected Saturday and Sunday
The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the NW Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Still undercutting NBM highs a bit for Saturday.
Highs will range from the low 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties and the Eastern Shore, to around 80 across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. Increased coverage in showers is expected Saturday night, but still keeping the likely PoPs limited to W of I-95.
The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower around 80, warmest SE VA/NC NC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages...
- Additional scattered showers and storms on Monday.
- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week.
By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. Most will see temps in the low 80s, upper 70s on the Eastern Shore.
We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday.
We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 650 AM Friday...
VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 12z TAF period.
A backdoor cold front has pushed in over the Eastern Shore, turning winds to the NE. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far inland low CIGs will go, but SBY may see flight restrictions by mid-morning. As the front pushes farther south, winds will turn to the NE and become gusty. Flight restrictions (IFR CIGs ) are expected to spread to the other terminals starting late this evening and last into Saturday.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, and for the Ocean N of Parramore Island for today behind a backdoor cold front.
-Winds diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by lat Saturday/Saturday night.
Still rather quiet across the waters early this morning with SSW winds of 10-15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft N/1-2 ft S, with waves in the Bay and rivers 1-2 ft (or less). The wind has shifted to the NNE at buoy 44009 and into the Ocean zone from the MD/DE border south towards Chincoteague. There may be a few hrs worth of marine fog toward sunrise in these northern Atlantic coastal waters before the winds increase, but do not anticipate this being enough for a Marine Dense Fog.
Otherwise, E/NE winds increase abruptly later this morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front with pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/6 hr. E-NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, but will likely over- perform at least across the northern coastal waters so have added the Ocean zones N of Parramore to a Small Craft Advisory through 4pm this aftn (with winds ~20kt gusting to 25 to near 30 kt), and seas of 4-5 ft. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. In the Bay/James, SCA headlines remain in effect from later this morning/aftn through 1 AM Sat morning. On the ocean S of Parramore, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt with seas building to ~4ft. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor the trends later this morning As of now, will keep these zones out of any headlines. Easterly winds subside some by Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...
Tidal departures increase later today in response to the winds turning onshore from the E or ENE. May consider a statement for the lower Bay/lower James and for the upper Bay across the northern Neck and perhaps Dorchester MD for the tide cycle this evening/tonight depending on how the water levels respond.
Additional tidal flooding, mainly to minor flood thresholds appears likely by later Sat through Sunday across the upper Bay as winds become more SE to S. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 650 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes across the area today, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return thus evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...
Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure still anchored over the Atlantic off the coast of the SE CONUS. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front is located just to the north of the local area. Aloft, an amplified ridge extends into Canada with its axis just to the west of the FA. Temps this morning will be fairly mild with temps remaining in the 60s for most places (upper 50s in the NW). The backdoor front will sag south today, creating non-diurnal temps that will have a sharp gradient from NE to SW. For most locations W of the bay, expect temps to quickly warm into the low 80s by mid- morning, while the Northern Neck and the Eastern Shore remain cool in the upper 50s-low 60s. Through the afternoon, cooler temps will spread inland. Mid-afternoon temps will be in the 50s on the Eastern Shore, 60s across the peninsulas and the SE coast, while the central and southern piedmont will be in the mid-upper 80s. Clouds will increase through the day, becoming broken to overcast by the afternoon. Winds turn to the NE behind the front and become breezy, gusting to 20-25mph. There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms in the piedmont this afternoon, but CAMs indicate isolated coverage. Showers likely increase in coverage late in the evening and overnight, but still look limited to the piedmont and still scattered (40-50% PoPs). Lows tonight/tomorrow morning will be a bit cooler than this morning, dropping into the 50s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Cooler temps and low clouds expected Saturday
- Intermittent precip expected Saturday and Sunday
The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday and especially Saturday night as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the NW Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Still undercutting NBM highs a bit for Saturday.
Highs will range from the low 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties and the Eastern Shore, to around 80 across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible. Increased coverage in showers is expected Saturday night, but still keeping the likely PoPs limited to W of I-95.
The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower around 80, warmest SE VA/NC NC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages...
- Additional scattered showers and storms on Monday.
- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week.
By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected. Most will see temps in the low 80s, upper 70s on the Eastern Shore.
We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 5-7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday.
We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 650 AM Friday...
VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 12z TAF period.
A backdoor cold front has pushed in over the Eastern Shore, turning winds to the NE. There is still some uncertainty regarding how far inland low CIGs will go, but SBY may see flight restrictions by mid-morning. As the front pushes farther south, winds will turn to the NE and become gusty. Flight restrictions (IFR CIGs ) are expected to spread to the other terminals starting late this evening and last into Saturday.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Small craft advisories are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River, and for the Ocean N of Parramore Island for today behind a backdoor cold front.
-Winds diminish a bit late tonight/Sat morning, but additional Small Craft Advisories may bee needed by lat Saturday/Saturday night.
Still rather quiet across the waters early this morning with SSW winds of 10-15 kt or less and seas 2-3 ft N/1-2 ft S, with waves in the Bay and rivers 1-2 ft (or less). The wind has shifted to the NNE at buoy 44009 and into the Ocean zone from the MD/DE border south towards Chincoteague. There may be a few hrs worth of marine fog toward sunrise in these northern Atlantic coastal waters before the winds increase, but do not anticipate this being enough for a Marine Dense Fog.
Otherwise, E/NE winds increase abruptly later this morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front with pressure rises on the order of 4-5mb/6 hr. E-NE winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt, but will likely over- perform at least across the northern coastal waters so have added the Ocean zones N of Parramore to a Small Craft Advisory through 4pm this aftn (with winds ~20kt gusting to 25 to near 30 kt), and seas of 4-5 ft. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. In the Bay/James, SCA headlines remain in effect from later this morning/aftn through 1 AM Sat morning. On the ocean S of Parramore, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt with seas building to ~4ft. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor the trends later this morning As of now, will keep these zones out of any headlines. Easterly winds subside some by Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again later Sat aftn/Sat night while shifting to the SE. This brings another chance at SCA conditions, again mainly over the Bay. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...
Tidal departures increase later today in response to the winds turning onshore from the E or ENE. May consider a statement for the lower Bay/lower James and for the upper Bay across the northern Neck and perhaps Dorchester MD for the tide cycle this evening/tonight depending on how the water levels respond.
Additional tidal flooding, mainly to minor flood thresholds appears likely by later Sat through Sunday across the upper Bay as winds become more SE to S. Moderate levels are not expected (except perhaps locally at Bishops Head), so no Coastal Flood Watches are anticipated.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA | 13 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 64°F | 73% | 30.04 | |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 22 sm | 24 min | ENE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 77°F | 63°F | 61% | 30.04 |
Tide / Current for Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Urbanna
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:17 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:13 AM EDT 1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:53 PM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:56 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM EDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:17 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:13 AM EDT 1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:53 PM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:56 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM EDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Urbanna, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Orchard Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:59 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM EDT 1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:35 PM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:56 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:59 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:38 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM EDT 1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:35 PM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:56 PM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Orchard Point, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.5 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Wakefield, VA,
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