Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:01 AM   Moonset 2:20 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KRLX 030745 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 345 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next week with daily chances for showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 220 AM Friday...

Moisture starts to increase this morning as high pressure fades to the east and a cold front approaches from the west. Warm air, transported into the area by southwesterly ahead of the front, should allow temperatures to rise into the 70s to 80s during the day.

Showers will begin spreading across the area this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms also likely to sprout up as moderate instability develops within the warm and moist environment. The frontal boundary then loiters to the west while a shortwave lifts across the region and sustains shower and storm activity within the CWA overnight.

Precipitable water is expected to rise throughout the day, with values ranging from 1 to 1.75 inches this afternoon into tonight. This signals potential for some heavier downpours which could create localized problems mainly for poor drainage areas; however, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry conditions leading up to today.

Tonight's temperatures are expected to be mild, with lows in the 50s to 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM Friday...

Active weather will span into the weekend as a cold front halts overhead and washes out. Warm and humid conditions festering over the area, coupled with the front and mid-level shortwave ripples, will yield showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday. Convection timing will be at its highest during peak heating hours in the afternoon, but retaining a slight chance for storms even beyond sunset late Saturday night.

Upper level troughing progressing through the Ohio Valley on Sunday will contribute to renewed potential for showers and storms. Additional downpours will continue to chip away at flash flood guidance, and may begin to impose local water concerns.
Antecedently dry soil conditions and blossoming vegetation should help mitigate widespread concern.

More of the same on Monday, despite potential to see a brief lull in activity Sunday night, as additional support arrives from a southern stream disturbance. Daytime heating, albeit a few degrees cooler than previous few days, will once again promote increased potential for afternoon showers and storms, especially across the southern half of the forecast area and up along the spine of the Appalachians.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 345 AM Friday...

Unsettled weather prevails through much of the work week with daily chances of showers and storms. A progressive upper level pattern will continue to churn shortwave energy through the heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians during the extended period. The focus of precipitation falls over us during this period of time under the guise of a stalled frontal boundary overhead. Ample precipitable water values on the order of 1.5 to 1.8 inches nestled over the region will continue to promote heavy downpours with this activity, further aggravating the threat for flooding for midweek and beyond.

00Z GFS run continues to imply a tightened pressure gradient settling over the area as the upper level jet noses into the Great Lakes region. This may promote breezy to occasionally strong wind gusts for Wednesday and into the end of the valid forecast period. Other global models aren't as keen with the placement of the upper jet and such a tightened low level gradient.

Temperatures rise back into the 80s down in the lowlands for Tuesday through Thursday, but possibly cooling off by the end of the work week behind a cold front.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 120 AM Friday...

While VFR is expected to persist for much of the area, some areas of valley fog could form and cause localized restrictions to ceilings or visibilities early this morning. Any fog that does form will dissipate shortly after sunrise, then VFR and increasing mid to high level clouds are expected for the rest of the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and continue into tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Periodic MVFR or worse restrictions will be possible during any heavier showers/storms later today and tonight.

Calm to light winds are expected into the morning, then winds increase to 5-10kts generally out of the southwest during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of fog may vary from the TAFs this morning. MVFR possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 05/03/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times from tonight into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Charleston, WV,