Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vansant, VA
May 3, 2024 1:30 AM EDT (05:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:01 AM Moonset 2:20 PM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 030526 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 126 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend as it washes out over the area.
Active pattern continues next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 930 PM Thursday...
ISOL showers/storms across the northern mountains have mainly dissipated/exited the FA at this point, with a dry rest of the overnight expected. The main updates to the forecast were to add a bit of river valley fog across mainly the deeper fog prone valleys of far southern WV and southwest VA, along with a general reduction in low temperatures overnight by 2-4 degrees across most of the area (hills/ridges being the exception)
given decent mixing this afternoon resulting in lower dew points across the region. SCT/BKN cirrus moves overhead tonight, but shouldn't inhibit cooling much. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 645 PM Thursday...
Diurnal anabatic surface flow converging along the spine of the northern mountains has resulted in a healthy Cu field with a few isolated light showers at present. Have inserted the chance (~20%) for isolated showers over the next few hours in this area, with an isolated rumble of thunder not out of the question. The chance for precipitation quickly diminishes near or shortly after sunset. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 142 PM Thursday...
High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system.
Friday's afternoon instability builds about 1,000 J/Kg, PWATS increase to 1.6 inches under low deep layered shear. These ingredients will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the stronger storms.
Returned flow from the south and warm air aloft provides mild temperatures for tonight despite of mostly clear skies and near calm surface winds. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 PM Thursday...
Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1154 AM Thursday...
Active weather continues for the extended period as another shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the potential for flooding issues increasing during this period, particularly Tuesday onward.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 120 AM Friday...
While VFR is expected to persist for much of the area, some areas of valley fog could form and cause localized restrictions to ceilings or visibilities early this morning. Any fog that does form will dissipate shortly after sunrise, then VFR and increasing mid to high level clouds are expected for the rest of the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and continue into tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Periodic MVFR or worse restrictions will be possible during any heavier showers/storms later today and tonight.
Calm to light winds are expected into the morning, then winds increase to 5-10kts generally out of the southwest during the day.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of fog may vary from the TAFs this morning. MVFR possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/03/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times from tonight into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 126 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend as it washes out over the area.
Active pattern continues next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 930 PM Thursday...
ISOL showers/storms across the northern mountains have mainly dissipated/exited the FA at this point, with a dry rest of the overnight expected. The main updates to the forecast were to add a bit of river valley fog across mainly the deeper fog prone valleys of far southern WV and southwest VA, along with a general reduction in low temperatures overnight by 2-4 degrees across most of the area (hills/ridges being the exception)
given decent mixing this afternoon resulting in lower dew points across the region. SCT/BKN cirrus moves overhead tonight, but shouldn't inhibit cooling much. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 645 PM Thursday...
Diurnal anabatic surface flow converging along the spine of the northern mountains has resulted in a healthy Cu field with a few isolated light showers at present. Have inserted the chance (~20%) for isolated showers over the next few hours in this area, with an isolated rumble of thunder not out of the question. The chance for precipitation quickly diminishes near or shortly after sunset. The rest of the forecast remains on track.
As of 142 PM Thursday...
High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system.
Friday's afternoon instability builds about 1,000 J/Kg, PWATS increase to 1.6 inches under low deep layered shear. These ingredients will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the stronger storms.
Returned flow from the south and warm air aloft provides mild temperatures for tonight despite of mostly clear skies and near calm surface winds. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 150 PM Thursday...
Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1154 AM Thursday...
Active weather continues for the extended period as another shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the potential for flooding issues increasing during this period, particularly Tuesday onward.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 120 AM Friday...
While VFR is expected to persist for much of the area, some areas of valley fog could form and cause localized restrictions to ceilings or visibilities early this morning. Any fog that does form will dissipate shortly after sunrise, then VFR and increasing mid to high level clouds are expected for the rest of the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon and continue into tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Periodic MVFR or worse restrictions will be possible during any heavier showers/storms later today and tonight.
Calm to light winds are expected into the morning, then winds increase to 5-10kts generally out of the southwest during the day.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of fog may vary from the TAFs this morning. MVFR possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/03/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers/storms at times from tonight into Sunday, and in stratus and/or fog Saturday/Sunday mornings.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJFZ TAZEWELL COUNTY,VA | 21 sm | 15 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 54°F | 56% | 30.05 | |
| KLNP LONESOME PINE,VA | 24 sm | 15 min | SW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 50°F | 63% | 30.05 |
Jackson, KY,
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