Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Shore, VA
May 3, 2024 7:41 AM EDT (11:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 2:50 AM Moonset 2:10 PM |
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 031058 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 658 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Frontal system over the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi valleys will move east, bringing clouds, scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms to our region later today, these showers becoming more prolific this weekend. Unseasonably warm temperatures today will transition to somewhat cooler conditions this weekend as clouds and an easterly wind become established over the forecast area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1. Continued unseasonably warm today.
2. Increasing clouds today with showers arriving across the mountains during the afternoon.
3. Scattered showers areawide tonight with isolated thunderstorms.
A cold front stretches from the Southern Plains into the western Great Lakes with low pressure centered near Chicago. A warm front extended east from the low across the northern Mid- Atlantic. Within the warm sector temperatures were well above the seasonal norm with both temperatures and dewpoints more like late spring or early summer.
As we transition through the next 24 hours, the airmass will get a little more humid as south winds ahead of the approaching mid-west cold front bring higher dewpoints into the region.
There will be an increase in cloud cover to go along with the increasing moisture and at some point, early-mid afternoon for the mountains, we should begin to see development of shower activity. Models suggest the best chance for showers today will be west of I-77 from the NC High Country northward through Mount Rogers and far southwest Virginia, and along and west of the Appalachian Divide in West Virginia. There may also be some showers along the warm front north of I-64. To the south and east of these favored areas, most of the day should remain dry with temperatures attempting a repeat of yesterday. Forecast numbers reflect readings well above normal with highs in the mid-upper 80s for the piedmont and upper 70s to lower 80s for the mountains.
For tonight, the showers should begin to spill east of the Blue Ridge with increasing chances as the front to our west gets closer, in addition to areas to our northeast. As the upper ridge near the Atlantic coast breaks down, expect warm front to our north to become a back-door cool front, a northeast to easterly surge of wind accompanying this feature as it moves south through the piedmont early tonight. By Saturday morning, all areas east of the mountains should transition to a cooler northeast to easterly wind. In spite of the cooling trend, overnight temperatures will continue to favor the warmer side of normal.
Thunderstorm threat today and tonight looks minimal. Even with daytime heating today, CAPE for our forecast area is not expected to exceed 1000 j/kg. For now will advertise isolated thunder threat, but nothing severe.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Significantly different weather conditions for the weekend with cloudy, much cooler, breezy conditions, and with rain likely through the weekend.
2) Warmer Monday with increasing chances for thunderstorms,
Compared to the past several days of bright sunny and very warm conditions, the weekend will signal a drastic shift to cloudy, dreary, damp, breezy, and chilly conditions thanks to a wedge of cool maritime air flowing into the region from the east underneath a slowly eastward progressing upper ridge. The cool low-level wedge will spread west Friday night into Saturday morning as a short wave from the Ohio Valley spreads east into the region helping to spread showers and isolated thunderstorms into the region. The remnant clouds and light precipitation will be in place as the easterly maritime flow spreads into the area and becomes firmly established by Saturday afternoon.
Once the wedge becomes established, it will be hard to dislodge in a hurry thanks to the cloud cover and southwest flow aloft helping to keep a series of weak disturbances riding over the shallow surface wedge of cool/damp air which in turn will result in spotty light rain, showers, and areas of drizzle, especially along/near the Blue Ridge. Categorical pops are warranted as it won't take much with several positive features in place for rain to generate a few hundredths but only weak dynamics and limited thermodynamics over the Mid-Atlantic region through the weekend, precipitation will be light through the weekend and mostly around 1/2 inch for the two-day period. With this in mind and after collaboration/discussion with WPC, the "marginal" risk for excessive rain on Sunday has been removed with the latest ERO updates.
As we move into Monday, the wedge begins to break down, but exact timing at this point remains a bit uncertain as surface winds only gradually veer from east to southeast by Monday and no real change in the pattern aloft. The main weather player for Monday appears to be a strong short wave moving into the region from the west by Monday afternoon. Associated forcing will likely result in a significant uptick in showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon as timing of the short wave looks to line up well with maximum daytime heating. Intensity of the thunderstorms will largely depend on how or if the wedge lingers across the region, but certainly a more bonafide chance for high rainfall amounts and perhaps even a strong storm or two.
Saturday and Sunday will be dramatically cooler than the 80s of the past few days. Not only will you want to keep a rain coat or umbrella handy for the weekend, but you will likely want to have a light jacket or sweater on hand as well. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be a good 25-30 degrees cooler across much of the forecast area, especially east of the I-77 corridor where highs will likely only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday and Sunday with cloudy skies, east winds 10-15 mph with some low end gusts, and sprinkles and drizzle interspersed with periods of light rain and a few heavier showers. Monday should see temperatures climbing back closer to the normal 70 degrees for early May.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Low to Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Quite unsettled through the period with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times.
2) Can't rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm Monday and again on Thursday.
3) Repeated rainfall events increase the chance for minor flooding issues through the week, but much of the area is below normal on rainfall after a rather dry April.
4) Temperatures trend back to above normal levels during the later half of the week.
An increasingly unsettled weather pattern will evolve through the week as a baroclinic zone settles across the region from the north with a series of vigorous upper-level disturbances riding through the southwest to west-southwest flow aloft. With the wedge finally eroding for the most part Monday, the atmosphere across the region will also become increasingly unstable. This combined with improved dynamics increases the chance for thunderstorms. A strong short wave will track from OH/KY to the northern Mid- Atlantic Monday bringing the first round of showers and thunderstorms for the week. While not outlooked, Brooks-Craven parameters suggest some potential for an isolated strong to severe storm Monday afternoon. The next short wave of concern arrives WEd-Thu and appears to be rather potent. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible with this system and again there is the chance for locally heavy rain and one or two strong to severe thunderstorms or two. At this point, there is too much uncertainty to include in the HWO/gHWO and SPC has not yet outlooked the region for Day4-Day8.
With dewpoints creeping into the mid 60s during the later half of the week and high temperatures encroaching on 80-degrees during the afternoon lower elevations and 70s mountains, it will feel more like June than early May. Lows at night will remain on the mild/muggy side mostly in the 60s.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...
Widespread VFR conditions at all terminals this morning, with VFR expected through most of the day. Cirrus will be on the increase today with scattered afternoon high based cumulus. At some point the cumulus may form a lower cloud base with opportunity for showers later in the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Showers will gradually overspread the entire region tonight in addition to a few thunderstorms. Sever weather is not anticipated, but do expect lowering cloud bases tonight with transition to MVFR and possibly IFR by daybreak Saturday morning.
Light/calm winds expected early this morning, becoming south southwesterly late morning and early afternoon 5-8kts. A backdoor cold front will introduce a northeast wind across areas east of the mountains tonight.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Rain showers and the potential for isolated thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR TSRA/SHRA at times. There is also a chance for LIFR associated with development of easterly upslope wind vcnty of the Blue Ridge which may impact terminals for Saturday and Sunday.
Unsettled weather is expected next week. Scattered mainly afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA continue Monday and Tuesday with periods of MVFR ceilings/ visibilities.
Easterly winds this weekend will shift back around to the south and southwest for Monday and Tuesday.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 658 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Frontal system over the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi valleys will move east, bringing clouds, scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms to our region later today, these showers becoming more prolific this weekend. Unseasonably warm temperatures today will transition to somewhat cooler conditions this weekend as clouds and an easterly wind become established over the forecast area.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1. Continued unseasonably warm today.
2. Increasing clouds today with showers arriving across the mountains during the afternoon.
3. Scattered showers areawide tonight with isolated thunderstorms.
A cold front stretches from the Southern Plains into the western Great Lakes with low pressure centered near Chicago. A warm front extended east from the low across the northern Mid- Atlantic. Within the warm sector temperatures were well above the seasonal norm with both temperatures and dewpoints more like late spring or early summer.
As we transition through the next 24 hours, the airmass will get a little more humid as south winds ahead of the approaching mid-west cold front bring higher dewpoints into the region.
There will be an increase in cloud cover to go along with the increasing moisture and at some point, early-mid afternoon for the mountains, we should begin to see development of shower activity. Models suggest the best chance for showers today will be west of I-77 from the NC High Country northward through Mount Rogers and far southwest Virginia, and along and west of the Appalachian Divide in West Virginia. There may also be some showers along the warm front north of I-64. To the south and east of these favored areas, most of the day should remain dry with temperatures attempting a repeat of yesterday. Forecast numbers reflect readings well above normal with highs in the mid-upper 80s for the piedmont and upper 70s to lower 80s for the mountains.
For tonight, the showers should begin to spill east of the Blue Ridge with increasing chances as the front to our west gets closer, in addition to areas to our northeast. As the upper ridge near the Atlantic coast breaks down, expect warm front to our north to become a back-door cool front, a northeast to easterly surge of wind accompanying this feature as it moves south through the piedmont early tonight. By Saturday morning, all areas east of the mountains should transition to a cooler northeast to easterly wind. In spite of the cooling trend, overnight temperatures will continue to favor the warmer side of normal.
Thunderstorm threat today and tonight looks minimal. Even with daytime heating today, CAPE for our forecast area is not expected to exceed 1000 j/kg. For now will advertise isolated thunder threat, but nothing severe.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Significantly different weather conditions for the weekend with cloudy, much cooler, breezy conditions, and with rain likely through the weekend.
2) Warmer Monday with increasing chances for thunderstorms,
Compared to the past several days of bright sunny and very warm conditions, the weekend will signal a drastic shift to cloudy, dreary, damp, breezy, and chilly conditions thanks to a wedge of cool maritime air flowing into the region from the east underneath a slowly eastward progressing upper ridge. The cool low-level wedge will spread west Friday night into Saturday morning as a short wave from the Ohio Valley spreads east into the region helping to spread showers and isolated thunderstorms into the region. The remnant clouds and light precipitation will be in place as the easterly maritime flow spreads into the area and becomes firmly established by Saturday afternoon.
Once the wedge becomes established, it will be hard to dislodge in a hurry thanks to the cloud cover and southwest flow aloft helping to keep a series of weak disturbances riding over the shallow surface wedge of cool/damp air which in turn will result in spotty light rain, showers, and areas of drizzle, especially along/near the Blue Ridge. Categorical pops are warranted as it won't take much with several positive features in place for rain to generate a few hundredths but only weak dynamics and limited thermodynamics over the Mid-Atlantic region through the weekend, precipitation will be light through the weekend and mostly around 1/2 inch for the two-day period. With this in mind and after collaboration/discussion with WPC, the "marginal" risk for excessive rain on Sunday has been removed with the latest ERO updates.
As we move into Monday, the wedge begins to break down, but exact timing at this point remains a bit uncertain as surface winds only gradually veer from east to southeast by Monday and no real change in the pattern aloft. The main weather player for Monday appears to be a strong short wave moving into the region from the west by Monday afternoon. Associated forcing will likely result in a significant uptick in showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon as timing of the short wave looks to line up well with maximum daytime heating. Intensity of the thunderstorms will largely depend on how or if the wedge lingers across the region, but certainly a more bonafide chance for high rainfall amounts and perhaps even a strong storm or two.
Saturday and Sunday will be dramatically cooler than the 80s of the past few days. Not only will you want to keep a rain coat or umbrella handy for the weekend, but you will likely want to have a light jacket or sweater on hand as well. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be a good 25-30 degrees cooler across much of the forecast area, especially east of the I-77 corridor where highs will likely only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday and Sunday with cloudy skies, east winds 10-15 mph with some low end gusts, and sprinkles and drizzle interspersed with periods of light rain and a few heavier showers. Monday should see temperatures climbing back closer to the normal 70 degrees for early May.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Low to Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Quite unsettled through the period with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times.
2) Can't rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm Monday and again on Thursday.
3) Repeated rainfall events increase the chance for minor flooding issues through the week, but much of the area is below normal on rainfall after a rather dry April.
4) Temperatures trend back to above normal levels during the later half of the week.
An increasingly unsettled weather pattern will evolve through the week as a baroclinic zone settles across the region from the north with a series of vigorous upper-level disturbances riding through the southwest to west-southwest flow aloft. With the wedge finally eroding for the most part Monday, the atmosphere across the region will also become increasingly unstable. This combined with improved dynamics increases the chance for thunderstorms. A strong short wave will track from OH/KY to the northern Mid- Atlantic Monday bringing the first round of showers and thunderstorms for the week. While not outlooked, Brooks-Craven parameters suggest some potential for an isolated strong to severe storm Monday afternoon. The next short wave of concern arrives WEd-Thu and appears to be rather potent. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible with this system and again there is the chance for locally heavy rain and one or two strong to severe thunderstorms or two. At this point, there is too much uncertainty to include in the HWO/gHWO and SPC has not yet outlooked the region for Day4-Day8.
With dewpoints creeping into the mid 60s during the later half of the week and high temperatures encroaching on 80-degrees during the afternoon lower elevations and 70s mountains, it will feel more like June than early May. Lows at night will remain on the mild/muggy side mostly in the 60s.
/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - High Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...
Widespread VFR conditions at all terminals this morning, with VFR expected through most of the day. Cirrus will be on the increase today with scattered afternoon high based cumulus. At some point the cumulus may form a lower cloud base with opportunity for showers later in the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Showers will gradually overspread the entire region tonight in addition to a few thunderstorms. Sever weather is not anticipated, but do expect lowering cloud bases tonight with transition to MVFR and possibly IFR by daybreak Saturday morning.
Light/calm winds expected early this morning, becoming south southwesterly late morning and early afternoon 5-8kts. A backdoor cold front will introduce a northeast wind across areas east of the mountains tonight.
Extended Aviation Outlook...
Rain showers and the potential for isolated thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR TSRA/SHRA at times. There is also a chance for LIFR associated with development of easterly upslope wind vcnty of the Blue Ridge which may impact terminals for Saturday and Sunday.
Unsettled weather is expected next week. Scattered mainly afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA continue Monday and Tuesday with periods of MVFR ceilings/ visibilities.
Easterly winds this weekend will shift back around to the south and southwest for Monday and Tuesday.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
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