Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puxico, MO
May 3, 2024 1:42 AM CDT (06:42 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM Moonset 1:54 PM |
Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY
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FXUS63 KPAH 030441 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1141 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Very warm temperatures continue, with humidity increasing through the weekend. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with a very good chance of rain and storms tonight.
- Scattered storms over the weekend lead into a potentially active period of several days Monday night through Wednesday where it appears at least some potential will exist for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The weather is doing a fantastic summer impression on this early May day. Highs are working well into the mid 80s with dewpoints around 60 degrees. Atmospheres fairly stable right now based on model soundings and cu behavior on satellite, but a slug of deeper moisture/warm advection and slight jet level ascent will work this way later this afternoon into this evening bringing with it a good chance for stratiform rain and convective showers and a thunderstorm or two. With PWATs stretching to 1.6 to 1.7 inches rainfall rates will be efficient/heavy but our ground conditions are such that flooding still appears unlikely unless multiple storms really root in over the same area.
The stronger WAA/isentropic lift ends by early morning as north winds scour out low level moisture just a little. I think we will be more dry than not during the day but with just a kiss of jet level ascent and humidity kept pops in, increasing with daytime heating. More warm air and moisture advection moves in in the evening and showers and storms will likely accompany this.
A sharp shortwave trough then approaches Sunday. Low-level moisture recovers with dewpoints in the upper 60s. MLCAPE values rise to about 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is marginal for severe and low level shear holds off until after large scale ascent appears less favorable. It does look plausible a severe storm or two may form Sunday afternoon and evening given that mid-level lapse rates may overachieve from model consensus given the sharpness of the shortwave. Net height rises then build in behind the shortwave which will likely keep us on the drier side Monday despite a surge in low level moisture as a powerful and large negatively-tilted shortwave trough moves in off the Rocky Mountains. This will mark an extended period where the larger synoptic scale pattern will be favorable for heavy rain and severe weather. Shear improves Monday night with dewpoints approaching 70 degrees. Strong low and deep layer shear is in place Tuesday with dewpoints remaining around 70 degrees. There are still some differences in the GFS/ECMWF handling of the upper trough over this region which would have large factors in the overall severe weather potential for the area. Ongoing convection and potential modification of the airmass would be a concern too, but we will absolutely need to watch Tuesday for an all-hazards severe potential given the day to day model trends.
General troughiness persists and things look to sort of re-load for Wednesday with strong deep and low level shear and ample instability. Thursday the GFS clears out the area where the ECMWF holds off on FROPA.
Similar to 12-24 hours ago picking out exactly if and when things will come together and how convection will evolve day to day is just impossible at this range for the Monday Night to Wednesday timeframe, but it has the look of a pattern that could produce a multi-day severe weather and heavy rain threat with subtle shortwave troughs working in over very rich low level moisture.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Intermittent rain showers are expected through the rest of the night at each TAF site before shifting east of the area by mid morning. It is still possible that some lightning may occur, but the chances are low enough to leave out of this issuance.
Additional isolated showers and storms may develop Friday afternoon, impacting mainly the eastern sites. Chance are fairly low of that happening at this time. Some MVFR/IFR conditions are expected later tonight into Friday morning.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1141 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Very warm temperatures continue, with humidity increasing through the weekend. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with a very good chance of rain and storms tonight.
- Scattered storms over the weekend lead into a potentially active period of several days Monday night through Wednesday where it appears at least some potential will exist for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
The weather is doing a fantastic summer impression on this early May day. Highs are working well into the mid 80s with dewpoints around 60 degrees. Atmospheres fairly stable right now based on model soundings and cu behavior on satellite, but a slug of deeper moisture/warm advection and slight jet level ascent will work this way later this afternoon into this evening bringing with it a good chance for stratiform rain and convective showers and a thunderstorm or two. With PWATs stretching to 1.6 to 1.7 inches rainfall rates will be efficient/heavy but our ground conditions are such that flooding still appears unlikely unless multiple storms really root in over the same area.
The stronger WAA/isentropic lift ends by early morning as north winds scour out low level moisture just a little. I think we will be more dry than not during the day but with just a kiss of jet level ascent and humidity kept pops in, increasing with daytime heating. More warm air and moisture advection moves in in the evening and showers and storms will likely accompany this.
A sharp shortwave trough then approaches Sunday. Low-level moisture recovers with dewpoints in the upper 60s. MLCAPE values rise to about 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear is marginal for severe and low level shear holds off until after large scale ascent appears less favorable. It does look plausible a severe storm or two may form Sunday afternoon and evening given that mid-level lapse rates may overachieve from model consensus given the sharpness of the shortwave. Net height rises then build in behind the shortwave which will likely keep us on the drier side Monday despite a surge in low level moisture as a powerful and large negatively-tilted shortwave trough moves in off the Rocky Mountains. This will mark an extended period where the larger synoptic scale pattern will be favorable for heavy rain and severe weather. Shear improves Monday night with dewpoints approaching 70 degrees. Strong low and deep layer shear is in place Tuesday with dewpoints remaining around 70 degrees. There are still some differences in the GFS/ECMWF handling of the upper trough over this region which would have large factors in the overall severe weather potential for the area. Ongoing convection and potential modification of the airmass would be a concern too, but we will absolutely need to watch Tuesday for an all-hazards severe potential given the day to day model trends.
General troughiness persists and things look to sort of re-load for Wednesday with strong deep and low level shear and ample instability. Thursday the GFS clears out the area where the ECMWF holds off on FROPA.
Similar to 12-24 hours ago picking out exactly if and when things will come together and how convection will evolve day to day is just impossible at this range for the Monday Night to Wednesday timeframe, but it has the look of a pattern that could produce a multi-day severe weather and heavy rain threat with subtle shortwave troughs working in over very rich low level moisture.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024
Intermittent rain showers are expected through the rest of the night at each TAF site before shifting east of the area by mid morning. It is still possible that some lightning may occur, but the chances are low enough to leave out of this issuance.
Additional isolated showers and storms may develop Friday afternoon, impacting mainly the eastern sites. Chance are fairly low of that happening at this time. Some MVFR/IFR conditions are expected later tonight into Friday morning.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPOF POPLAR BLUFF MUNI,MO | 20 sm | 49 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.86 |
Paducah, KY,
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