Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 12:56 PM

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FXUS63 KSGF 022336 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 636 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand over the area this afternoon and shift east across the forecast area into this evening.

- The stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of quarters and up to 60 mph winds...with heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast with the next round of showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an upper level low pressure system located along the Montana / Saskatchewan border with an associated trough axis becoming negatively tilted over the northern plains. Broad southwesterly flow aloft was occurring on the southern side of this trough from the southwest U.S. into the CWA A mesoscale convective vort(MCV) was lifting northeast into the CWA out of northeast Oklahoma, while a surface front was located over eastern Kansas shifting eastward. Surface based CAPE values have risen into the 1000-2000 j/kg range and with the front and MCV moving into the area, convection over the past hour has increased in intensity and coverage, generally west of U.S. 65.

This afternoon and tonight: Thunderstorm coverage will continue to increase ahead of the surface front. The front will be slow to push eastward through the area with the front nearly parallel with the upper level flow. The MCV will continue to lift northeast into the southwest corner of Missouri as well.
Thunderstorm coverage will gradually shift east across the area through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours.
Some of the stronger storms will have the potential of some small hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph in addition to heavy rainfall. We are seeing some rotation in the storms in the southwest corner of MO with the circulation around the MCV and have had a confirmed small tornado already reported.
So we can't rule out an isolated small tornado or two. Some localized rainfall totals of an inch to inch and a half will be possible in regions where multiple storms move across the same locations, otherwise we are looking at a broad area of a quarter to half inch of rain. The rain should end from west to east later tonight with the front pushing to the east of the area.

Friday: This looks like the pick day of the 7 day forecast if you are looking for generally dry conditions. Outside of a lingering shower in the morning, it should generally be dry with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday night - Saturday: An upper level wave will track northeast out of the northern plains and into the upper Mississippi valley on Friday night. A surface front will begin to track east into the western portion of the CWA and we should see showers and thunderstorms start to push into the area.
Rainfall will become more widespread over the area during the day on Saturday.

Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to the area on Sunday. The better instability looks to be south of the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this activity at this time.

Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will have better dynamics and instability for the potential of some severe storms which the Colorado State, CIPS and SPC are already supporting in their day 5-6 outlooks.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An area of showers and a few storms will continue to move through the area early this evening. A few isolated storms will remain possible tonight but coverage will be limited. Ceilings will lower this evening into tonight with IFR conditions expected. Some fog will be possible tonight into early Friday morning.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.

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