Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 2:44 AM   Moonset 2:06 PM

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FXUS63 KSGF 031107 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast MO. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM tonight.

- Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold front. A Marginal Risk of severe weather has been issued over the area and storms will be capable of quarter-sized hail and up to 60 mph winds with heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Patchy fog/drizzle has set in around the area this morning.
Though, cold front moving through north-central Missouri should help to clear out the fog/drizzle and improve visibilities as it continues to push south.

Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s even after the cold front moves through. This is due to the mid-level southwesterly flow that will help us stay warm today. Winds turn to the north just for a few hours this morning before returning back to the southeast by late this afternoon as surface high pressure moves over us. Another weak shortwave moves through southern Missouri this afternoon and rain chances return. Right now, only have a 20-40% chance of thunderstorms with the best chances occurring over southeast Missouri. Storms are expected to be sub-severe today. Rain is expected to dissipate after 7 PM.

As for Saturday, another cold front will push through the area bringing another chance (70-90%) for thunderstorms starting in the morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening hours. Tomorrow, we are in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, and therefore, will be a better set up than today. Storms may become severe and could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Right now, have rain lingering through Saturday night into Sunday morning even after the front has passed through.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

An active pattern sets up for the long term period. There are chances for rain everyday through Thursday. The entire area is in a general thunderstorm outlook for Sunday.

Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will bring shower and thunderstorms to the area. The better instability looks to be south of the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this activity at this time.

By Monday and Tuesday, a negatively tilted trough begins to move into the PNW. This will likely bring us another round of severe weather. Too early to discuss hazards and timing, but SPC has consistently put our western counties in KS in an area of 15% chance for severe weather for Monday. CIPS and CSU guidance also line up with that outlook. Tuesday will be another day to keep an eye on as CIPS/CSU guidance is already showing signs of possible severe weather occuring over southern MO.

Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will have better dynamics and instability for the potential of severe storms. SPC has put eastern/southeastern Missouri in a 15% chance for severe weather for Tuesday.

Lastly, CSU/CIPS guidance is showing the potential for severe weather all the way through Thursday of next week. Next week could be another busy week, stay tuned for further forecast updates.

As for the flooding concerns, the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms combined with the already elevated river levels could lead to rapid rises along waterways. We will need to monitor for additional flooding in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

LIFR/IFR ceilings are ongoing this morning until lowered visibilities from fog/drizzle improves. Skies will remain mostly cloudy for today. Ceilings are expected to improve through the morning and VFR is forecast to return by this afternoon. Winds start out northerly for this morning, but turn southeasterly later this afternoon.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.

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