Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Viola, AR
May 3, 2024 5:40 AM CDT (10:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM Moonset 2:03 PM |
Area Discussion for - Little Rock, AR
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FXUS64 KLZK 030925 AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 425 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Regional WSR 88-D radars depict showers and thunderstorms ongoing across portions of far Wrn AR extending back into Ern OK associated with an approaching upper level disturbance. Elsewhere, patchy to areas of fog were noted across portions of SW, S, into Cntrl AR.
This convection will slowly push S and E, moving into Wrn AR through the early morning time frame. What remains of this system will then push into Cntrl and Srn AR after sunrise through about mid- day. While a low-end wind threat and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest of storms, coverage of these stronger storms should be spotty. Overall, the intensity of convection should trend downward. An active SWrly upper pattern will remain entrenched across the region into the long term.
Another weak upper level impulse should move through the flow on Saturday promoting an additional round of showers and thunderstorms. A weak frontal boundary will enter Nrn AR, bringing some additional lift across this area. Highest PoP chances should be over Wrn sections of the state. Otherwise, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible elsewhere.
The threat for severe weather appears low at this time for Saturday.
Over Nrn AR, amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 are possible over the two day span. Further S, over Cntrl AR, amounts may range from 0.25 to 0.75.
And lastly but not least, Srn sections of the state could see rainfall amounts between 0.50 and 0.75 inches. High temperatures both days will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lows mainly in the 60s, with upper 50s over the higher terrain of W/NW/N-Cntrl AR.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
The extended period will start off with a cold front stalled across northern Arkansas, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Any severe weather should be spotty, and there could be localized flash flooding.
Heading into next week, a large storm system will track from the Rockies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Ahead of the system, the aforementioned front will exit back to the north. At the same time, the system will try to drag a new front into the region, but it will likely come to a halt north of the state. This will happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given the scenario, warmer conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday, and precipitation will become more isolated with time.
Rain chances are highest in northern Arkansas closest to the front.
Temperatures will be well above average.
As the period ends, the system to the north will exit into Canada.
Behind the system, a northwest wind flow will develop. The front that halted to the north earlier in the week will be driven through the region on Thursday. The front will be accompanied by hit/miss thunderstorms, and followed by cooler/drier air.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A variety of CIGs are expected overnight ranging from VFR to IFR.
Low stratus is anticipated to become more widespread heading through the overnight period as a weak system moves towards the region. Some PoPs are expected on Fri, however confidence in placement and timing remain low owing to the system being weak.
Conds should improve to mainly VFR late in the period but SHRA may linger over Srn sites, on and off, through much of the period.
Winds will be light out of the S/SE at 10 knots or less.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 79 63 82 64 / 30 20 60 30 Camden AR 78 63 83 64 / 60 30 40 30 Harrison AR 77 60 79 59 / 30 20 60 30 Hot Springs AR 79 63 82 64 / 50 20 50 40 Little Rock AR 81 65 84 67 / 50 30 50 30 Monticello AR 79 65 85 67 / 60 40 40 30 Mount Ida AR 80 62 82 64 / 60 20 60 40 Mountain Home AR 79 60 81 60 / 30 10 60 30 Newport AR 81 64 83 64 / 40 30 50 30 Pine Bluff AR 79 64 83 66 / 60 40 40 40 Russellville AR 81 62 82 64 / 50 10 50 30 Searcy AR 79 62 82 64 / 40 30 50 30 Stuttgart AR 79 65 82 67 / 50 40 50 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 425 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
Regional WSR 88-D radars depict showers and thunderstorms ongoing across portions of far Wrn AR extending back into Ern OK associated with an approaching upper level disturbance. Elsewhere, patchy to areas of fog were noted across portions of SW, S, into Cntrl AR.
This convection will slowly push S and E, moving into Wrn AR through the early morning time frame. What remains of this system will then push into Cntrl and Srn AR after sunrise through about mid- day. While a low-end wind threat and marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest of storms, coverage of these stronger storms should be spotty. Overall, the intensity of convection should trend downward. An active SWrly upper pattern will remain entrenched across the region into the long term.
Another weak upper level impulse should move through the flow on Saturday promoting an additional round of showers and thunderstorms. A weak frontal boundary will enter Nrn AR, bringing some additional lift across this area. Highest PoP chances should be over Wrn sections of the state. Otherwise, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible elsewhere.
The threat for severe weather appears low at this time for Saturday.
Over Nrn AR, amounts of 0.10 to 0.25 are possible over the two day span. Further S, over Cntrl AR, amounts may range from 0.25 to 0.75.
And lastly but not least, Srn sections of the state could see rainfall amounts between 0.50 and 0.75 inches. High temperatures both days will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with lows mainly in the 60s, with upper 50s over the higher terrain of W/NW/N-Cntrl AR.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
The extended period will start off with a cold front stalled across northern Arkansas, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Any severe weather should be spotty, and there could be localized flash flooding.
Heading into next week, a large storm system will track from the Rockies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Ahead of the system, the aforementioned front will exit back to the north. At the same time, the system will try to drag a new front into the region, but it will likely come to a halt north of the state. This will happen as the front becomes nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given the scenario, warmer conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday, and precipitation will become more isolated with time.
Rain chances are highest in northern Arkansas closest to the front.
Temperatures will be well above average.
As the period ends, the system to the north will exit into Canada.
Behind the system, a northwest wind flow will develop. The front that halted to the north earlier in the week will be driven through the region on Thursday. The front will be accompanied by hit/miss thunderstorms, and followed by cooler/drier air.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024
A variety of CIGs are expected overnight ranging from VFR to IFR.
Low stratus is anticipated to become more widespread heading through the overnight period as a weak system moves towards the region. Some PoPs are expected on Fri, however confidence in placement and timing remain low owing to the system being weak.
Conds should improve to mainly VFR late in the period but SHRA may linger over Srn sites, on and off, through much of the period.
Winds will be light out of the S/SE at 10 knots or less.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 79 63 82 64 / 30 20 60 30 Camden AR 78 63 83 64 / 60 30 40 30 Harrison AR 77 60 79 59 / 30 20 60 30 Hot Springs AR 79 63 82 64 / 50 20 50 40 Little Rock AR 81 65 84 67 / 50 30 50 30 Monticello AR 79 65 85 67 / 60 40 40 30 Mount Ida AR 80 62 82 64 / 60 20 60 40 Mountain Home AR 79 60 81 60 / 30 10 60 30 Newport AR 81 64 83 64 / 40 30 50 30 Pine Bluff AR 79 64 83 66 / 60 40 40 40 Russellville AR 81 62 82 64 / 50 10 50 30 Searcy AR 79 62 82 64 / 40 30 50 30 Stuttgart AR 79 65 82 67 / 50 40 50 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
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Springfield, MO,
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