Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 3:19 AM   Moonset 2:41 PM

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FXUS64 KOHX 030652 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 152 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers are ongoing across the area thanks to a weakening shortwave to our west. That wave will slowly move through the area this morning and lift northeast of the plateau by lunchtime. More scattered showers and storms will develop this afternoon as another disturbance approaches. MLCAPE values this afternoon will be 1000-1500 J/kg but shear will be weak. While a gusty storm can't be ruled out, severe storms are not expected.
There will likely be a lull in the action tonight into Saturday morning as we are in between waves and we lose the diurnal heating. More scattered showers and storms will develop Saturday afternoon.



LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper air pattern will remain active in the extended forecast as the quasi-zonal flow brings weak disturbance after weak disturbance. The scattered showers and storms from Saturday will continue into Saturday night before we catch a break Sunday morning and afternoon. Another wave will approach Sunday evening with more showers and storms overnight. That wave will linger into Monday. Some temporary upper ridging may try to build into the area on Tuesday which could lower the rain chances, but it will be short-lived as the quasi-zonal/southwesterly flow reestablishes itself midweek. Overnight temperatures through the forecast will be mild thanks to dew points in the 60s and extensive cloud cover. Daily highs will depend on the coverage of showers and storms each day but generally highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s.



AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Already we are beginning to see scattered light showers develop across Middle Tennessee as a surface trough approaches the mid state from the west. For now, conditions at all terminals are VFR, but not for much longer. During the next several hours, showers will become more prevalent and ceilings will lower to MVFR and will remain there for much of the morning. Expect ceilings to improve somewhat during the afternoon as we experience some surface heating and boundary layer mixing, but rain chances will stay with us. There will be some instability in place, so we do expect a few thunderstorms to develop mainly during the afternoon, but they will be scattered in nature and not prevalent enough to warrant mention in the TAFs just yet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 80 66 81 65 / 80 70 40 40 Clarksville 78 63 81 64 / 90 40 30 40 Crossville 74 61 74 60 / 80 70 60 50 Columbia 80 64 80 63 / 80 70 40 40 Cookeville 76 63 76 62 / 80 70 60 50 Jamestown 75 61 75 60 / 80 70 70 50 Lawrenceburg 80 64 79 63 / 80 70 40 40 Murfreesboro 80 64 80 63 / 90 70 40 40 Waverly 79 63 79 64 / 80 60 40 40

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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