Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Low Mountain, AZ
May 3, 2024 2:47 AM MDT (08:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:53 AM Moonset 2:18 PM |
Area Discussion for - Flagstaff, AZ
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FXUS65 KFGZ 030543 AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1043 PM MST Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions continue again Friday. However, wind speeds begin to increase Saturday, becoming strong on Sunday, especially north and east of the Mogollon Rim.
This will be a mainly dry pattern, the main impacts will be the winds and a noticeable cooling trend Sunday and Monday.
UPDATE
It's a quiet night weather-wise across the state. Breezy winds from earlier this afternoon are starting to drop off. Overnight lows should be near to a bit above average for early May. No updates to the forecasts are needed this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION /455 PM MST/
A fair and mild day is expected for the rest of today and again Friday. Daytime winds will remain fairly light, but a few areas in the High Country may see gusts from 20-25 mph. Things start to turn much windier over the weekend, as a strong trough impacts the west.
A deep, late-season upper low will enter Northern California on Saturday, then will move east-southeast through the Great Basin on Sunday and across the Rockies on Monday.
This trajectory will keep us fairly dry, but will be a major wind producer, especially on Sunday, as a cold front moves through our area. We expect winds to hit just under Wind Advisory criteria on Saturday. However, Sunday will feature a fairly large area of Wind Advisory criteria, maybe some High Wind Warning criteria east of Flagstaff.
Additionally, low relative humidity values will occur within the areas featuring the strongest winds Sunday afternoon. There has been some discussion concerning fuels and how dry we actually are, with lowland grasses already curing, but a robust green-up now underway on the Mogollon Rim. At the very least, areas north and east of the Mogollon Rim may be near Critical Fire Weather conditions for Sunday afternoon, but further analysis of fuels may necessitate a Red Flag Warning.
After our cool day on Sunday, winds will back off a bit, but will remain breezy into the early part of next week. We remain dry and temperatures will recover to near normal values.
AVIATION
Friday 03/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with scattered afternoon cumulus over higher terrain (bases 8-12k ft agl). Light winds overnight, becoming W-SW 10-15 kts after 18Z Friday and continuing through around 02Z.
OUTLOOK
Saturday 04/06Z through Monday 06/06Z
VFR conditions expected.
Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and Sunday, with a low chance (10%) of light showers from KFLG north and west Sunday afternoon.
SW wind gusts 25-35 kts on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday with some localized gusts near 60 kts possible in downslope regions north of the Mogollon Rim.
FIRE WEATHER
Friday and Saturday...Warm/dry weather expected to continue. Look for west-southwest winds 5-15 mph on Friday, becoming south-southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH values will be 10-20%.
Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler temperatures and very windy conditions expected on Sunday, with increasing Min RH values.
Southwest winds 30-40 mph, gusting 45-60 mph. Localized areas along and just north of higher terrain could see even stronger winds. Temperatures will warm Monday and Tuesday, with breezy afternoon conditions.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1043 PM MST Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions continue again Friday. However, wind speeds begin to increase Saturday, becoming strong on Sunday, especially north and east of the Mogollon Rim.
This will be a mainly dry pattern, the main impacts will be the winds and a noticeable cooling trend Sunday and Monday.
UPDATE
It's a quiet night weather-wise across the state. Breezy winds from earlier this afternoon are starting to drop off. Overnight lows should be near to a bit above average for early May. No updates to the forecasts are needed this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION /455 PM MST/
A fair and mild day is expected for the rest of today and again Friday. Daytime winds will remain fairly light, but a few areas in the High Country may see gusts from 20-25 mph. Things start to turn much windier over the weekend, as a strong trough impacts the west.
A deep, late-season upper low will enter Northern California on Saturday, then will move east-southeast through the Great Basin on Sunday and across the Rockies on Monday.
This trajectory will keep us fairly dry, but will be a major wind producer, especially on Sunday, as a cold front moves through our area. We expect winds to hit just under Wind Advisory criteria on Saturday. However, Sunday will feature a fairly large area of Wind Advisory criteria, maybe some High Wind Warning criteria east of Flagstaff.
Additionally, low relative humidity values will occur within the areas featuring the strongest winds Sunday afternoon. There has been some discussion concerning fuels and how dry we actually are, with lowland grasses already curing, but a robust green-up now underway on the Mogollon Rim. At the very least, areas north and east of the Mogollon Rim may be near Critical Fire Weather conditions for Sunday afternoon, but further analysis of fuels may necessitate a Red Flag Warning.
After our cool day on Sunday, winds will back off a bit, but will remain breezy into the early part of next week. We remain dry and temperatures will recover to near normal values.
AVIATION
Friday 03/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with scattered afternoon cumulus over higher terrain (bases 8-12k ft agl). Light winds overnight, becoming W-SW 10-15 kts after 18Z Friday and continuing through around 02Z.
OUTLOOK
Saturday 04/06Z through Monday 06/06Z
VFR conditions expected.
Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and Sunday, with a low chance (10%) of light showers from KFLG north and west Sunday afternoon.
SW wind gusts 25-35 kts on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday with some localized gusts near 60 kts possible in downslope regions north of the Mogollon Rim.
FIRE WEATHER
Friday and Saturday...Warm/dry weather expected to continue. Look for west-southwest winds 5-15 mph on Friday, becoming south-southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph on Saturday. Minimum RH values will be 10-20%.
Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler temperatures and very windy conditions expected on Sunday, with increasing Min RH values.
Southwest winds 30-40 mph, gusting 45-60 mph. Localized areas along and just north of higher terrain could see even stronger winds. Temperatures will warm Monday and Tuesday, with breezy afternoon conditions.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Flagstaff, AZ,
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