Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM   Moonset 1:55 PM

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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 346 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E this afternoon. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat late this morning, then increasing to light chop this afternoon. Patchy fog late. Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Patchy fog in the evening. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds around 15 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 624 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure will move farther offshore today. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast early next week, bringing a little better chance for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KMHX 030825 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 425 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will dip south into North Carolina this afternoon and linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 0400 Friday...Patchy fog around the Crystal Coast and lift N'wards overnight. There exists potential for dense fog (VIS < 1/4mi) across the SWern half of the CWA Probabilities of VIS<1mi ~10-30% for zones further inland, mainly Lenoir, Northern Craven, and Beaufort counties north. Fog may linger into mid morning, but the densest fog will begin eroding with sunrise prompting mixing of the nocturnal inversion. Riding aloft remains in place over ECONUS and a mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern half of the FA this afternoon. The front in conjunction with the sea/sound/river breezes will shift winds Eerly 10-15kt behind it which will bring a noticeable T drop. Afternoon seabreeze developing over Crystal Coast, unimpeded by large scale flow, will penetrate well inland through the afternoon, reaching the I95 corridor by this evening. Previous runs of the typical pessimistic guidance showed scattered showers popping up this afternoon along the boundaries pushing through the FA, but have slightly backed off.
There may be enough convergence and moisture pooling just ahead of where the front and seabreeze meet late this afternoon to spark some showers, but the ridging aloft should act to suppress them. Have increased PoPs in this "convergence zone" but have kept below mentionable in forecast text products. Highs approaching 90 inland with highs along the coast limited to mid to upper 70s by cool air behind the backdoor front and/or seabreeze.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 0400 Friday...The backdoor front stalls out over the FA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. Another rd of fog possible overnight with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low levels. Muggy lows in the mid 60s for most.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.

Saturday and Sunday...A weak front will remain over ENC Saturday with easterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur.
Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow).

Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0115 Friday...VFR flight cats make way to subVFR with fog expected to develop overnight. Best chance for coastal TAF sites with inland sites being more uncertain. Fog could become dense at times especially along the Crystal Coast which would result in IFR/LIFR conditions at the EWN/OAJ TAF sites. Inland TAF sites will possibly see MVFR VIS conditions and considering how often PGV reports IFR/LIFR VIS for less than impactful fog, have added TEMPO IFR groups for ISO and PGV. VFR returns after fog dissipates a few hrs after sunrise.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0400 Friday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period. Light and variable winds early become Swerly late morning 5-10kt.
Mostly dry backdoor cold front sags S through the Nern waters this afternoon, shifting winds Eerly 10-15G20kt behind it. Some gusts may approach 25kt over Albemarle Sound, but not expecting SCA criteria gusts to persist. Winds become more Serly 10-15kt over Sern waters where the seabreeze circulation can be felt. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.

Winds will be easterly Saturday at 5-10 kts and then come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts.
Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:08 PM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
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Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

Roanoke Sound Channel
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Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:26 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roanoke Sound Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

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