Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM   Moonset 1:56 PM

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AMZ131 Alligator River- 1234 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Patchy fog late. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves light chop. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Mon night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1234 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing slight chances for showers, but should remain mainly west of enc.

FXUS62 KMHX 030530 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 130 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing slight chances for showers, but should remain mainly west of ENC.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 935 PM Thu... Not much has changed since the previous update as latest obs show clear skies and light winds across ENC this evening. Expect over the next few hours for patchy fog to develop especially around the Crystal Coast and lift N'wards overnight. The only caveat to this is if a weak gradient can maintain itself overnight there would be a very low chance we remain fog free tonight across ENC. However given the continued support from the Hi-res guidance, clear skies, and already light winds have kept fog in the forecast across the region with the potential for dense fog across the southern half of the CWA still in play. High res model suite and HRRR probs are highlighting a 60-80% chance for less than 1 mile visibilities in this area with closer to 10-30% probs from about Lenoir, Northern Craven, and Beaufort counties north and the fog forecast reflects this. May need a headline DFA at some point tonight depending on how fog covg and density evolves. Winds will be calm to light ssw overnight. Otherwise lows get down into the low 60s across the region tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
As of 303 PM Thu...After morning fog burns off, another very warm day on tap, with highs into the mid and upr 80s interior, to 70s coast as a dry sea breeze develops once again.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 0330 Thursday...Quiet until this weekend when conditions become more unsettled through early next week. Best rain chances on Sunday

Weekend...The mid-level ridge remains over the eastern US Saturday but weakens as a complex series of shortwave troughs and surface lows move toward the area, resulting in unsettled conditions that will persist into the beginning of next week.
Chances for showers and storms start to increase Saturday morning and peak Sunday (30-50%). Shower and storm chances hang around through the period due to the lingering nature the front, but they will be decreasing as we progress into next week (25-50% Monday, 15-30% Tuesday). Saturday's high temps will be a few degrees cooler than Friday due to the originally dry cold front that will dip south (low 80s coastal plain, low 70s beaches). Temps remain around the same Sunday.

Early next Week...Upper ridging builds back over the area Tuesday behind a weak shortwave passing Monday. Shortwave and remnants of the weekend's front/SFC trough will lead to some precip Mon. Temps rebound next week with highs expected to reach back into 80s Mon and Tues, 90s Wed.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 0115 Friday...VFR flight cats make way to subVFR with fog expected to develop overnight. Best chance for coastal TAF sites with inland sites being more uncertain. Fog could become dense at times especially along the Crystal Coast which would result in IFR/LIFR conditions at the EWN/OAJ TAF sites. Inland TAF sites will possibly see MVFR VIS conditions and considering how often PGV reports IFR/LIFR VIS for less than impactful fog, have added TEMPO IFR groups for ISO and PGV. VFR returns after fog dissipates a few hrs after sunrise.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday.
Conditions become more unsettled this weekend through early next week due to a series of disturbances moving across the area.
There will be multiple chances for showers and storms with Sunday having the greatest threat (30-60%). Periods of lower CIGs and VIS as well as gusty winds if near any storms can be expected.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 303 PM Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period.
Winds will be light (5 kt or less) and variable for much of the day but will slightly increase in speed (5-10 kt) as they transition to southerly and then eventually southwesterly by later tonight. Seas only 1-2 ft throughout.

May be dense fog again for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again, esp further south in the srn/ctrl coastal waters, Pamlico Sound, and Neuse/Pamlico rivers later this evening into early Fri.

LONG TERM /Sat through Tuesday/...
As of 0330 Thursday...Sub- SCA conditions are expected through the period but multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms could create hazardous boating conditions. Sunday presents the best opportunity for showers and storms (30-40%). Winds veer to the southwest by early Friday. A dry cold front will sag south into northern counties on Friday. North of Cape Hatteras, 5-10 kt winds will be out of the E by the afternoon. South of Cape Hatteras, winds will be 5-10 kt out of the ESE. Winds and seas pick up Saturday- Sunday as a front approaches. Winds will be ESE around 10-15 kt Saturday and then southerly by Sunday. Seas remain around 2 ft until Saturday when they will increase to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Old House Channel
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Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:37 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old House Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

Davis Slough
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Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:27 AM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,