Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 2:45 AM   Moonset 2:08 PM

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FXUS62 KRAH 031042 AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level high pressure ridge extending over the area this morning will shift to our southeast later today. A surface backdoor front will drop into northeast North Carolina tonight then stall out, holding over North Carolina through Saturday before slowly washing out. A series of weak upper level disturbances will move through the region from late today through Sunday, bringing periods of unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 150 AM Friday...

A last largely dry day before we start trending wetter, esp W. Very weak surface troughing sits over the W Piedmont of NC currently, capped by the mid-upper level ridge axis extending over the central and eastern Carolinas. PWs remain on the low side, under 1" except in our far S (where there is a risk for some stratus and fog for a few hours early this morning). With stable and dry mid levels, we'll again be dry today, albeit with increasing high then mid level clouds, along with a few high-based afternoon cu, as a mid level perturbation/remnant MCV currently over the Mid South shifts eastward into our area. Low level thicknesses will again be well above normal, with models showing values several meters higher than yesterday when we reached the upper 80s to lower 90s. The gradual increase and thickening of clouds will curb heating slightly, but we should still be able to reach the upper 80s to around 90, perhaps a few lower 90s east, close to but generally below record highs (see climate section below).

As the steadily dampening wave shifts E of the Appalachians, clouds will continue to spread in tonight from the W, with PWs near or above 1.5" spreading into at least the Piedmont and Sandhills. CAPE is minimal and elevated, and the flattening wave and weak mid level flow will provide little in the way of dynamic forcing for ascent.
but the deepening moisture and a couple hundred J/kg will be enough to support isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm overnight, in the Triad this evening then spreading into the rest of the Piedmont after midnight. In addition, models are in good agreement that the backdoor front now stretching across the Mid Atlantic region will continue to push southward into our area late tonight, bringing an area of stratus spreading in from the N and NE, and increasing low level mass convergence along this backdoor front may prompt additional light rain areas in its vicinity. Lows from around 60 the mid 60s. -GIH

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 225 AM Friday...

Confidence is high on increasing chances for showers and a few storms, although no one will see rain the entire day, and pinpointing the location and motion of what should be shower/storm clusters is challenging. PWs will continue to rise, with models indicating a swath of 1.5-1.75" values surging up through central NC, in the 90th percentile and even nearing daily records. This will occur in tandem with increasing low level moisture flux drawing Atlantic moisture into our area. As the backdoor front settles further into the area Sat morning, followed by a very gradual weakening and washing out, the considerable stratus over much of the area, esp N and W sections, will hinder heating and destabilization until it retreats and breaks up later in the day. And our large scale dynamic forcing for ascent will be poor, given the weak mid- upper level flow, but we may still feel the effects of MCVs emanating from today's Plains convection as it shifts into our area late Sat through Sat night. All of this supports scattered to numerous clusters of showers and storms, particularly in areas W of I-95 where moisture will be deepest, with the highest pops in the Triad and perhaps a secondary focus along the weakening backdoor frontal zone. The storm threat will be limited, given the weak deep layer bulk shear and modest CAPE, but a few storms will remain possible mainly in the afternoon and evening. Rain chances will persist overnight with further moistening of the low levels with confluent 925 mb southerly flow strengthening to 15-25 kts with both Atlantic and Gulf taps. While areally averaged rainfall amounts aren't likely to be high, given the anomalously high PW and somewhat slow storm motion with cell mergers possible, isolated areas could see local rainfall totals that could present minor urban flooding issues, esp in the Triad region, despite the recent dry weather.
With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, expect highs from the mid 70s N and W to lower-mid 80s SE. Lows in the 60s. -GIH

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
As of 250 AM Friday...

Elevated Rain Chances Will Linger Through Monday

Heat Returns Middle Part of Next Week

Sunday and Sunday night: The stalled sfc front sagging across northern portions of the forecast will retreat north early Sunday, leaving all of central NC in the warm sector. Subtle upper disturbances coupled with the development of weak to moderate buoyancy during the afternoon will act upon the elevated PWATS (150- 160% of normal)in place over the region to support afternoon showers and storms. Shear is generally less than 20 kts, so the threat for organized severe storms is near zero.

The moist PWATs and associated mostly cloudy skies and rain chances should temper afternoon temps. Highs in the upper 70s north to lower 80s.

Convection should largely dissipate as BL nocturnally cools and stabilizes. Under mostly cloudy skies, mild overnight temps in the 60s.

Monday and Monday night: A compact shortwave trough over the Mid MS Valley will become increasingly sheared as it crosses the central and southern Appalachians Monday afternoon and through the Mid Atlantic States Monday night. PWATs are forecast to increase to ~200% of normal as the trough and associated DPVA moves through the area. As such, expect another healthy uptick in diurnal coverage and PoPs Monday afternoon and into the evening. Shear remains weak.
Thus, the threat for severe storms remains low. Low-level thicknesses are on par or slightly higher than Sunday. Highs 80-85.
Lows in the 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday: Rain chances will lessen during this period, with weak disturbances moving atop the ridge providing the primary focus for scattered shower and storms, mainly across northern portion of the forecast area. The main weather headlines will be the return of the heat during the second half of the work week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to top out in the mid/upper 80s north lower 90s over interior and southern portions of the forecast area. Expect very warm nights as well, potentially record warm, with lows 65 to 70.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 645 AM Friday...

Except for a chance of MVFR vsbys/cigs in the SE including FAY 08z- 12z this morning, VFR conditions are likely to hold through at least this afternoon across all central NC terminals, but with gradually increasing high and mid clouds. Starting after 21z, an upper level disturbance along with daytime heating will prompt isolated to scattered showers and a few storms pushing into the west (INT/GSO), with these chances lasting through the overnight hours, however VFR conditions will still be dominant. However, starting after 04z tonight, a backdoor front dropping into far N and NE sections will bring a good chance for IFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys into northern areas, along and behind the front. As the backdoor front settles southward well into central NC overnight, sub-VFR cigs/vsbys are expected to spread south through most of the area 06z-12z Sat, with scattered showers.

Looking beyond 12z Sat, as the front slowly lifts back north and washes out, conditions will slowly improve back to VFR Sat from SE to NW, with the Triad (INT/GSO) remaining sub-VFR well into the afternoon. But the chance for sub-VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers and storms will be high, especially at INT/GSO/RDU, Sat through Mon, particularly each afternoon and evening, with locally gusty winds in and near storms, and a chance for patchy early-morning fog areawide. -GIH

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

May 3: KGSO: 92/1959 KRDU: 93/1959 KFAY: 95/1913

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 4: KGSO: 65/2022 KRDU: 68/1938 KFAY: 68/1942

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Bannermans Branch
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Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:57 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:09 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

Castle Hayne
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Fri -- 03:18 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:55 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:19 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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