Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM   Moonset 2:54 PM

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FXUS64 KMEG 030439 AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1139 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 707 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A shortwave trough propagating through weak southwest flow is shifting east of the Mississippi River. Additionally, we are rapidly losing any instability from daytime heating. These two factors should limit any additional thunder/lightning across the Midsouth. Updated to remove thunderstorms and adjust short term temperatures. It will remain showery and muggy through the night with lows in the middle 60s. Tomorrow through the weekend and into next looks to remain unsettled featuring several additional shortwave troughs tracking through southwest flow. Severe thunderstorms do not look likely. Temperatures should trend slightly warmer over the weekend into next week with highs back in the middle 80s by Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Wet and unsettled weather will persist across the Mid-South over the next week or so as a series of upper level disturbances and fronts will move the region. Above normal temperatures and precipitation is expected through the late next week.

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals scattered showers and thunderstorms tracking nearly due north along and west of I-55.
Most convective activity has been on the weaker side as shear has generally been less than 25 knots. A few strong storms are still possible this afternoon as up to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE is available along and west of the Mississippi River. The main threats with any strong storms will be small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

Convective activity will become more widespread over the next several hours, as a shortwave over Arkansas translates northeast through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. The majority of activity will occur overnight and taper off by Friday morning.
Upper level heights are expected to build north of I-40 tomorrow in wake of the departing wave. This should limit convective coverage to the north. A weak cold front will move into the Mid- South tomorrow afternoon and likely act as a trigger for renewed convection. HRRR guidance suggests most activity will be confined to areas along and south of I-40 corridor in the mid to late afternoon hours tomorrow.

Storm coverage and timing will be difficult to pin down over the weekend as we remain in weak southwest flow aloft.
Several weak shortwaves and frontal boundaries will be in play each day and hi-res guidance may be the only option to get a good handle on mesoscale triggers. Opted to stick with the NBM through this period, with 20 to 40 PoPs during the overnight periods and 40 to 80 PoPs during peak heating each day.

Unsettled weather will continue through the long term forecast as several shortwaves traverse the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. No clearly organized severe weather threat is forecast over the next 7 days. Both temperatures and rainfall will remain above normal through late next week.

AC3

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

SHRA is expected to continue across portions of the Mid-South through the early morning hours. The latest guidance has indicated that the transition to MVFR and IFR CIGS may occur later than anticipated. Another round of precipitation will begin to affect various TAF sites in the late morning to early afternoon hours, with TSRA being possible. Several model runs depict the potential for lower CIGS occurring toward the end of the TAF period, but confidence in this scenario was not high enough to include in this TAF cycle.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

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