Sunrise 6:51 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 3:21 AM   Moonset 2:46 PM

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FXUS64 KAMA 030543 AAB AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1243 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For tonight, the atmosphere has stabilized somewhat behind the latest cold frontal passage which has moved through the forecast area. Numerical model guidance has reduced pops to non-mentionable values for tonight, and this seems reasonable.

For Friday through Friday night, a minor upper level shortwave trof coupled with an approaching cold front and sufficient moisture will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
The best chance for precipitation is expected later Friday night as the cold front moves southward across the region. A few storms may have the potential to become severe, mainly Friday evening or night, with hail and wind the primary hazards.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For Saturday through Sunday afternoon, a couple minor upper level shortwave trofs embedded in the overall southwest flow aloft are forecast to move across the region and will bring a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Based on the predicted track of these minor features, the southern and southeastern Texas Panhandle will likely have the best chance of receiving precipitation, while the far northwestern zones will have the overall lowest chance. NBM pops reflect the above scenario and were utilized in the appropriate grids for Saturday through Sunday afternoon. Based on the southward progression of the cold front this weekend, the heaviest QPF amounts have continued to trend south and southeast of our forecast area as shown in latest model guidance and WPC QPF forecasts, and this scenario was accepted.

A much stronger upper level low pressure system is then slated to move across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by medium range models would prove to be more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for the OK and TX Panhandles. Medium range models and associated ensemble members are in good agreement with that idea and were accepted.
That said, warmer temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions and dry weather are in the offing for Monday and Tuesday followed by less wind for Wednesday.

02

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR and MVFR cigs will continue to spread northwest to cover all of the TAF sites overnight. These low cigs will dissipate at DHT and GUY around mid day, but may take until later in the afternoon to clear at AMA. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated through this TAF cycle, so have not mentioned them in this forecast. East to southeast winds will be common through this forecast at 10 to 15 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Amarillo TX 76 51 69 53 / 30 40 60 80 Beaver OK 79 49 69 49 / 20 70 30 70 Boise City OK 76 42 66 46 / 30 40 20 50 Borger TX 80 53 72 54 / 30 50 40 80 Boys Ranch TX 80 50 71 51 / 30 40 40 70 Canyon TX 77 51 71 52 / 30 40 60 80 Clarendon TX 73 54 71 54 / 30 40 70 90 Dalhart TX 77 44 67 46 / 30 40 20 60 Guymon OK 77 45 67 48 / 20 60 20 60 Hereford TX 78 51 72 51 / 30 30 60 80 Lipscomb TX 77 52 70 52 / 20 60 40 80 Pampa TX 76 52 68 53 / 30 50 50 80 Shamrock TX 74 54 71 54 / 30 50 70 80 Wellington TX 75 56 72 55 / 30 50 80 90

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
OK...None.

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Amarillo, TX,