Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 3:00 AM   Moonset 2:24 PM

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FXUS64 KOUN 031143 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 643 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers/storms will continue into the morning hours with the highest chances in east central and southeast parts of the fa.
The severe potential with this activity has diminished but still could get some gusty winds out of the stronger storms. Heavy rain/localized flooding will also be possible, especially in those areas that have already received several inches of rain and where storms train.

The frontal boundary that moved across parts of the area Thursday will lift back north later today with moisture spreading back northward. Thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the area later today and move into the fa this evening/overnight. Meanwhile, another cold front is expected to begin to move into the fa overnight/early Saturday which would also be a focus for shower/storm development. Severe storms will be possible starting this evening with damaging wind and hail possible.

Highs today are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 50s in the NW to the mid 60s in the SE.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

With the frontal boundary over the fa and potentially a shortwave moving across the region, showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday into Sunday. Severe storms will be possible again Saturday evening and overnight with damaging wind and hail. However, what might be a bigger concern this weekend is the potential for more widespread heavy rain with heaviest amounts expected across the southern half or so of the area. With the recent heavy rainfall that has already occurred, this heavy rain could lead to additional flash flooding/river flooding in several areas.

For Monday, models show an upper trough approaching and moving into the Plains. At the sfc, a dryline develops and moves into the area.
Thunderstorms will be possible once again with severe storms possible. The potential for severe weather could be greater on Monday compared to the next few days due to the added upper air support. There are some uncertainties since what happens over the weekend could affect the airmass over the region but with the upper support and dryline, thunderstorms/severe storms are possible Monday.

After Monday it looks like there could be a period of quieter weather for at least the middle of next week with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A very low stratus deck will keep most of our terminals from LIFR to MVFR conditions through 16-21Z. Dense advection fog coming up from north Texas will also be reducing visibility's for a few hours at terminal KSPS. All terminals will have returned to VFR conditions after 21Z although may return to MVFR to IFR conditions after 06Z due to lowering ceilings. Thunderstorms may develop after 00Z across northern Texas which could affect all terminal generally west of I-35, although probabilities are low so PROB30 groups are in the potentially affected terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 77 63 77 60 / 20 40 90 70 Hobart OK 78 60 76 58 / 30 50 80 80 Wichita Falls TX 80 62 78 61 / 30 40 80 80 Gage OK 79 54 68 51 / 20 70 50 60 Ponca City OK 78 61 73 57 / 10 60 80 60 Durant OK 82 65 79 64 / 30 30 70 70

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ041>043-046>048- 050>052.

TX...None.

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