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FXUS64 KLZK 030549 AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1249 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Data from KLZK radar indicate scattered areas of precipitation moving northeast across the forecast area, with a few convective cells with lightning affecting the delta region of the state. This activity is promoted by short wavelength energy approaching the state.

This activity will continue through most of the overnight hours, with the greatest coverage of precipitation expected across extreme eastern sections of the forecast area.

Will have several quick moving fronts approach and affect the forecast area during the rest of the forecast period.
Climatologically, it is an uncommon instance that a front approaching the forecast area would not support severe thunderstorm formation. At this time, however, a review of forecast fields indicate that those values are not in the parameter space that favors severe thunderstorm formation.

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Not many appreciable changes have been made to the forecast/grids this afternoon as new guidance remains in relatively good agreement with current thinking that our sensible weather will initially be unsettled. Any differences were blended together with consensus between models seeming to be the best way to go.

Period initiates with upper troughing over the upper midwest and a sprawling upper low /trough sitting off the Oregon coast. On the surface, a cold front will be sitting over northwest Arkansas where it will remain through late Sunday. Upper wave kicking out of the main trough will interact with the boundary as it starts to move to the north as a warm front Sunday, resulting in a broad area of showers and thunderstorms with the highest QPF over the northwest portion of the state.

Aforementioned western system will lift out early next week and move into the northern high plains. Warm front will lift to the north of the area allowing temperatures to rise to well above seasonal averages. As the system moves into the northern plains, another cold front will be approaching as the parent low occludes out.

This front will likely remain to the north and west of the state and while precipitation chances will decrease, they will not entirely go away. The highest chances of precipitation from Tuesday onward will be across the north and west, closer to that front.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A variety of CIGs are expected overnight ranging from VFR to IFR.
Low stratus is anticipated to become more widespread heading through the overnight period as a weak system moves towards the region. Some PoPs are expected on Fri, however confidence in placement and timing remain low owing to the system being weak.
Conds should improve to mainly VFR late in the period but SHRA may linger over Srn sites, on and off, through much of the period.
Winds will be light out of the S/SE at 10 knots or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Batesville AR 79 63 82 64 / 30 20 60 30 Camden AR 79 63 82 64 / 70 30 40 20 Harrison AR 76 61 78 59 / 30 20 70 30 Hot Springs AR 80 64 81 64 / 70 20 50 30 Little Rock AR 80 65 84 67 / 60 30 50 30 Monticello AR 78 64 84 67 / 70 30 40 20 Mount Ida AR 79 63 80 64 / 60 20 60 40 Mountain Home AR 78 62 80 60 / 30 10 60 30 Newport AR 79 64 84 64 / 30 20 50 20 Pine Bluff AR 79 64 83 66 / 70 30 40 30 Russellville AR 81 64 81 64 / 50 20 60 30 Searcy AR 79 63 83 64 / 50 20 50 30 Stuttgart AR 79 65 84 67 / 60 40 50 30

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Little Rock, AR,