Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Albuquerque, NM
May 2, 2024 11:54 PM MDT (05:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:12 AM Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM Moonset 12:54 PM |
Area Discussion for - Albuquerque, NM
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FXUS65 KABQ 022354 AAA AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 554 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Today will be mostly dry with the exception of an isolated shower or two across the northeast. Some drizzle and patchy fog is possible across the same area early tomorrow morning. A few strong to severe storms may develop Friday afternoon along the Texas border then again Saturday afternoon across the southeast plains. Southwest to west winds increase Sunday afternoon, marking the first of several days with widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
A very dry airmass has settled into northern and western NM behind a weak Pacific cold front this morning. Meanwhile, shallow low level moisture is still in place over eastern NM this afternoon. A cumulus field has developed along the boundary between these two airmasses near the central mt chain. The latest HRRR, RRFS, and NBM guidance is still showing a couple showers developing over far northeast NM as the boundary sharpens thru sunset. Instability and moisture are limited so this activity is likely to produce only light rain with gusty winds. A 1016mb surface high building south down the Great Plains this evening will help low level flow to become more easterly tonight with deepening moisture westward to the central mt chain around sunrise. Hi-res models have the low level moisture much farther west than global models late tonight thru Friday afternoon over eastern NM. This leads to large differences in the extent of low stratus over the plains tonight and the eventual initiation point for storms Friday afternoon. The latest SPC convective outlook trended farther west with the general storm outlook Friday and now includes a Marginal Risk area just west of the TX/NM border. The 18Z NAM lift and instability is plenty sufficient for strong to severe storms but bulk shear values are marginal near 30kt. Convective initiation may occur as far west as the I-25 corridor of northeast NM before storms strengthen upstream toward the TX border. The next backdoor cold front moving south down the Colorado Front Range Friday afternoon is expected to force a large cluster of storms to develop over southeast CO thru Friday evening. These storms will reinforce the momentum of the backdoor front and shoot the boundary rapidly southward across eastern NM thru sunrise Saturday. The bulk of the deeper moisture appears to be along and immediately behind the frontal passage followed dry air advection into northeast NM.
Widespread low stratus is likely over eastern NM along with a few additional showers Friday night. The front may squeeze thru gaps in the central mt chain before sunrise Saturday with a brief period of gusty canyon winds possible.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Any east canyon winds in Albuquerque will be short-lived Saturday morning given that southwest flow will push this boundary back to the east with daytime mixing. The NAM suggests that there may be some light precipitation across the eastern plains during the morning hours along the leading edge of the front, but this appears unlikely given how shallow the moisture layer will be.
Precipitation chances increase during the afternoon hours across the southeast plains where a more moist Gulf airmass meets the cooler/drier airmass associated with the backdoor front. The exact area of convective development remains relatively uncertain given that it will be highly dependent on where this convergence zone sets up. Shear sufficient for the development of supercells straddles the southeast border of the CWA, but this may expand further northwest (southeast) if the front moves slower (faster)
than currently modeled. Slow storm motion will keep any storms that develop around through the overnight hours and increase the risk of flash flooding. Very dry soils across the southeast plains (<15% per NASA LIS) will struggle to absorb moisture under intense rainfall rates so there is low potential for flash flooding as well. Non-severe convection is also likely over the northern mountains Saturday afternoon, with locally gusty outflow winds the main threat given large sfc dewpoint depressions.
Furthermore, if vigorous convection does manifest across the eastern plains Saturday afternoon, the outflow boundaries could trigger additional convection in the highlands overnight and gusty east canyon winds in east Albuquerque.
Increasing southerly flow out ahead of a large trough over The Great Basin will eventually kick this more moist airmass to the east, allowing fire weather concerns to take center stage for the rest of the week. Confidence is moderate to high that windy conditions will prevail across the region each afternoon Sunday through Thursday as the trough traverses the Intermountain West then hangs out over the High Plains. Currently, Sunday and Monday are looking like the windiest days of the week given the stronger 700mb winds, but dry unidirectional flow through the end of the week will support efficient mixing down to the surface, even if 700mb winds are less than 2 standard deviations above climatological normals. After a slight cooldown Monday behind a dry Pacific front, temperatures rise and remain a few degrees above seasonal normals mid to late week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Gusty winds currently prevailing will taper off aft sunset with most areas becoming light and vrb. Moisture will surge wwd overnight into the ern plains creating the potential for MVFR to brief and lcl IFR cigs in and around KTCC and KLVS aft 03/08Z.
Low clouds will burn off shortly aft sunrise, resulting in VFR conditions tomorrow. Gusty wly to sly winds will return in the aftn all terminals.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...
Marginally critical fire weather will continue over parts of western NM thru Saturday with warm, dry, breezy, and unstable conditions.
Eastern NM will finally get a break from fire weather as low level moisture increases behind a couple backdoor cold fronts. Localized wetting rainfall is possible from storms closer to the TX border on Friday and Saturday. Just enough moisture may seep into the northern mts on Saturday to spawn a few high-based showers and storms with dry lightning possible. The focus shifts to widespread critical and perhaps extreme fire weather Sunday thru Wednesday with an extended period of strong winds and very low humidity. Strong southwest winds Sunday will shift out of the west Monday and Tuesday with an upper level trough passage followed by northwest winds Wednesday.
Overnight recoveries will be poor in many areas Monday night and Tuesday night followed up to 10 hours of single digit RH in some areas. The latest SPC fire weather outlook already highlights critical fire weather concerns next week which is rare for this far out in the forecast. The main exception will be parts of northwest NM Monday where cooler temps and perhaps even some spotty showers are possible with the trough passage.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 38 76 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 71 34 74 / 0 0 0 20 Cuba............................ 36 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 32 73 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 37 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 35 74 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 72 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 72 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 33 77 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 31 66 35 68 / 0 5 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 46 70 49 69 / 0 5 0 20 Pecos........................... 39 71 40 68 / 0 10 0 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 66 40 66 / 0 10 0 40 Red River....................... 29 62 31 62 / 0 10 5 50 Angel Fire...................... 27 64 27 61 / 0 20 5 40 Taos............................ 32 71 34 71 / 0 5 0 30 Mora............................ 36 69 35 64 / 0 20 5 30 Espanola........................ 43 78 45 77 / 0 5 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 45 72 46 71 / 0 10 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 76 43 74 / 0 5 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 45 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 47 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 45 82 46 82 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 46 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 45 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 49 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 47 80 50 79 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 51 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 43 75 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 42 75 43 71 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 77 38 73 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 39 72 38 66 / 0 5 0 10 Mountainair..................... 42 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 41 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 51 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 46 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 37 68 35 62 / 10 30 10 20 Raton........................... 38 72 35 67 / 5 20 10 30 Springer........................ 38 73 38 67 / 5 20 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 39 71 38 66 / 5 20 5 30 Clayton......................... 43 72 43 65 / 20 30 30 10 Roy............................. 43 72 42 66 / 10 20 20 20 Conchas......................... 48 79 48 72 / 10 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 46 77 45 70 / 10 10 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 47 78 47 71 / 10 20 20 30 Clovis.......................... 50 80 50 73 / 5 20 20 50 Portales........................ 51 82 52 75 / 5 20 20 50 Fort Sumner..................... 51 82 49 75 / 10 10 5 30 Roswell......................... 54 90 55 83 / 5 5 5 30 Picacho......................... 48 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 46 81 47 79 / 0 0 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 554 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Today will be mostly dry with the exception of an isolated shower or two across the northeast. Some drizzle and patchy fog is possible across the same area early tomorrow morning. A few strong to severe storms may develop Friday afternoon along the Texas border then again Saturday afternoon across the southeast plains. Southwest to west winds increase Sunday afternoon, marking the first of several days with widespread critical to extreme fire weather conditions.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
A very dry airmass has settled into northern and western NM behind a weak Pacific cold front this morning. Meanwhile, shallow low level moisture is still in place over eastern NM this afternoon. A cumulus field has developed along the boundary between these two airmasses near the central mt chain. The latest HRRR, RRFS, and NBM guidance is still showing a couple showers developing over far northeast NM as the boundary sharpens thru sunset. Instability and moisture are limited so this activity is likely to produce only light rain with gusty winds. A 1016mb surface high building south down the Great Plains this evening will help low level flow to become more easterly tonight with deepening moisture westward to the central mt chain around sunrise. Hi-res models have the low level moisture much farther west than global models late tonight thru Friday afternoon over eastern NM. This leads to large differences in the extent of low stratus over the plains tonight and the eventual initiation point for storms Friday afternoon. The latest SPC convective outlook trended farther west with the general storm outlook Friday and now includes a Marginal Risk area just west of the TX/NM border. The 18Z NAM lift and instability is plenty sufficient for strong to severe storms but bulk shear values are marginal near 30kt. Convective initiation may occur as far west as the I-25 corridor of northeast NM before storms strengthen upstream toward the TX border. The next backdoor cold front moving south down the Colorado Front Range Friday afternoon is expected to force a large cluster of storms to develop over southeast CO thru Friday evening. These storms will reinforce the momentum of the backdoor front and shoot the boundary rapidly southward across eastern NM thru sunrise Saturday. The bulk of the deeper moisture appears to be along and immediately behind the frontal passage followed dry air advection into northeast NM.
Widespread low stratus is likely over eastern NM along with a few additional showers Friday night. The front may squeeze thru gaps in the central mt chain before sunrise Saturday with a brief period of gusty canyon winds possible.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Any east canyon winds in Albuquerque will be short-lived Saturday morning given that southwest flow will push this boundary back to the east with daytime mixing. The NAM suggests that there may be some light precipitation across the eastern plains during the morning hours along the leading edge of the front, but this appears unlikely given how shallow the moisture layer will be.
Precipitation chances increase during the afternoon hours across the southeast plains where a more moist Gulf airmass meets the cooler/drier airmass associated with the backdoor front. The exact area of convective development remains relatively uncertain given that it will be highly dependent on where this convergence zone sets up. Shear sufficient for the development of supercells straddles the southeast border of the CWA, but this may expand further northwest (southeast) if the front moves slower (faster)
than currently modeled. Slow storm motion will keep any storms that develop around through the overnight hours and increase the risk of flash flooding. Very dry soils across the southeast plains (<15% per NASA LIS) will struggle to absorb moisture under intense rainfall rates so there is low potential for flash flooding as well. Non-severe convection is also likely over the northern mountains Saturday afternoon, with locally gusty outflow winds the main threat given large sfc dewpoint depressions.
Furthermore, if vigorous convection does manifest across the eastern plains Saturday afternoon, the outflow boundaries could trigger additional convection in the highlands overnight and gusty east canyon winds in east Albuquerque.
Increasing southerly flow out ahead of a large trough over The Great Basin will eventually kick this more moist airmass to the east, allowing fire weather concerns to take center stage for the rest of the week. Confidence is moderate to high that windy conditions will prevail across the region each afternoon Sunday through Thursday as the trough traverses the Intermountain West then hangs out over the High Plains. Currently, Sunday and Monday are looking like the windiest days of the week given the stronger 700mb winds, but dry unidirectional flow through the end of the week will support efficient mixing down to the surface, even if 700mb winds are less than 2 standard deviations above climatological normals. After a slight cooldown Monday behind a dry Pacific front, temperatures rise and remain a few degrees above seasonal normals mid to late week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
Gusty winds currently prevailing will taper off aft sunset with most areas becoming light and vrb. Moisture will surge wwd overnight into the ern plains creating the potential for MVFR to brief and lcl IFR cigs in and around KTCC and KLVS aft 03/08Z.
Low clouds will burn off shortly aft sunrise, resulting in VFR conditions tomorrow. Gusty wly to sly winds will return in the aftn all terminals.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 241 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...
Marginally critical fire weather will continue over parts of western NM thru Saturday with warm, dry, breezy, and unstable conditions.
Eastern NM will finally get a break from fire weather as low level moisture increases behind a couple backdoor cold fronts. Localized wetting rainfall is possible from storms closer to the TX border on Friday and Saturday. Just enough moisture may seep into the northern mts on Saturday to spawn a few high-based showers and storms with dry lightning possible. The focus shifts to widespread critical and perhaps extreme fire weather Sunday thru Wednesday with an extended period of strong winds and very low humidity. Strong southwest winds Sunday will shift out of the west Monday and Tuesday with an upper level trough passage followed by northwest winds Wednesday.
Overnight recoveries will be poor in many areas Monday night and Tuesday night followed up to 10 hours of single digit RH in some areas. The latest SPC fire weather outlook already highlights critical fire weather concerns next week which is rare for this far out in the forecast. The main exception will be parts of northwest NM Monday where cooler temps and perhaps even some spotty showers are possible with the trough passage.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Farmington...................... 38 76 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 31 71 34 74 / 0 0 0 20 Cuba............................ 36 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 32 73 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 37 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 35 74 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 37 72 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 72 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 33 77 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 31 66 35 68 / 0 5 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 46 70 49 69 / 0 5 0 20 Pecos........................... 39 71 40 68 / 0 10 0 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 66 40 66 / 0 10 0 40 Red River....................... 29 62 31 62 / 0 10 5 50 Angel Fire...................... 27 64 27 61 / 0 20 5 40 Taos............................ 32 71 34 71 / 0 5 0 30 Mora............................ 36 69 35 64 / 0 20 5 30 Espanola........................ 43 78 45 77 / 0 5 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 45 72 46 71 / 0 10 0 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 76 43 74 / 0 5 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 45 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 47 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 45 82 46 82 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 46 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 45 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 49 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 47 80 50 79 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 51 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 43 75 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 42 75 43 71 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 77 38 73 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 39 72 38 66 / 0 5 0 10 Mountainair..................... 42 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 41 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 51 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 46 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 37 68 35 62 / 10 30 10 20 Raton........................... 38 72 35 67 / 5 20 10 30 Springer........................ 38 73 38 67 / 5 20 10 30 Las Vegas....................... 39 71 38 66 / 5 20 5 30 Clayton......................... 43 72 43 65 / 20 30 30 10 Roy............................. 43 72 42 66 / 10 20 20 20 Conchas......................... 48 79 48 72 / 10 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 46 77 45 70 / 10 10 5 20 Tucumcari....................... 47 78 47 71 / 10 20 20 30 Clovis.......................... 50 80 50 73 / 5 20 20 50 Portales........................ 51 82 52 75 / 5 20 20 50 Fort Sumner..................... 51 82 49 75 / 10 10 5 30 Roswell......................... 54 90 55 83 / 5 5 5 30 Picacho......................... 48 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 46 81 47 79 / 0 0 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KABQ ALBUQUERQUE INTL SUNPORT,NM | 6 sm | 62 min | N 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 64°F | 12°F | 13% | 29.93 | |
| KAEG DOUBLE EAGLE II,NM | 11 sm | 3.1 hrs | NNW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 7°F | 12% | 29.95 |
Albuquerque, NM,
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